President's job approval is CRUCIAL!

trump's record BAD approval rating tumbles again...now -14.1

Approval of Trump's handling of coronavirus
hits new low

Support for President Trump's handling of the coronavirus pandemic
reached a new low on Sunday as various parts of the country
continue to experience a surge in infections, according to a new poll.

The survey, conducted by The Associated Press and the NORC Center
for Public Affairs Research, found that just 32 percent of Americans
said they support the president's response to the coronavirus outbreak,
marking a 12-point decline from an identical survey released in March.

The president's marks on the economy, long a strength, also have
gradually declined since March. Only 48% of respondents
said they approve of his handling of the economy amid the pandemic,
down from 56% in March.

Overall, just 38 percent of Americans said they approve of the
president's performance in the White House.

Source: https://tinyurl.com/y3sw9vqf

Trump's weak trump approval improved recently to -10.5 with the addition
of a new outlier poll from right-leaning RASMUSSEN.

There are 63 polls since June 01 currently listed on the tracking site
Real Clear Politics, and 53 show trump's net-negative job approval
in solid double-digits.
Similarly Rasmussen's polls have also had trump frequently listed in
net negative double digits since early April, but this outlier has trump
listed at +2 job approval - skewing his real average.

However, in fairness I just report the news as is.

Source: https://tinyurl.com/y96uo53z

The rolling average for 9 most recent polls on RCP is now a job approval of -10.3

Source:  https://tinyurl.com/y96uo53z

HOWEVER, when counting all the polls since JULY 01...

Rasmussen  +4   outlier    = 321 /25 --->  -12.8
Emerson       -6
Reuters      -18
YouGov        -9
IBD/TIPP     -11
The Hill       -12
CNBC         -12
Politico       -17
Harris        -12
YouGov      -14
Reuters      -18
Politico       -17
FOX News    -9
ABC/WP     -18
Reuters      -16
Rasmussen  -2  outlier
YouGov      -15
Gallup        -15
CNBC         -14
Politico       -15
Quinnipiac  -24  outlier
NBC/WSJ    -14
The Hill      -10
Reuters      -17
Rasmussen -10

Missing this entry from the end of that list above

YouGov -15

Thursday, AUGUST 06:

The rolling average for 9 most recent polls on RCP has DROPPED to  -12.0

Source:  https://tinyurl.com/y96uo53z

HOWEVER, when counting all the polls since JULY 01...

Rasmussen   -6    = 378 /30  =  -12.6
Reuters      -19
YouGov      -14
Politico       -18
Rasmussen +4 outlier
Emerson     -6
Reuters     -18
YouGov       -9
IBD/TIPP    -11
The Hill      -12
CNBC        -12
Politico      -17
Harris        -12
YouGov     -14
Reuters     -18
Politico      -17
FOX News   -9
ABC/WP    -18
Reuters     -16
Rasmussen -2 outlier
YouGov     -15
Gallup       -15
CNBC        -14
Politico      -15
Quinnipiac -24 outlier
NBC/WSJ   -14
The Hill      -10
Reuters      -17
Rasmussen -10
YouGov      -15 <-------- JULY 01

 Minor change in RCP rolling avg, now  -11.9

Five new "job approval" polls out...See if you can identify the outlier:

-19  Reuters

-14  YouGov

-18  Politico 

-13  GU Politics

  -2   Rasmussen

Donald Trump was a outlier in 2016....we all know what happened...

Yup, we sure do... 

And the FALCONS blew a 28-3 lead late in the 3rdQ in a SuperBowl.

Shit happens.

Billionaire bond investor Jeffrey Gundlach, who accurately predicted Donald Trump's presidency in early 2016 before the Republican primaries concluded, believes the president will win re-election.

The 60-year-old billionaire said he'd "bet against" former Vice President Joe Biden defeating Trump in November.

"I think polls are very, very squishy right now because of the highly toxic political environment in which we live," Gundlach said.

Gundlach said also he’s come across data suggesting that about "two-thirds of conservatives or moderate conservatives say that they have lied about their support for Donald Trump either directly or by omission."

I said this in this forum three months ago ..and I'm not even a billionaire..

Classic "Appeal to authority"

Failure

There was a smattering of boos when players from FC Dallas and Nashville SC
collectively took a knee during the national anthem
before their MLS game in Frisco, Texas, on Wednesday night.

At the opening game of the MLS tournament in Florida, members of the group
collectively stood in silence, fists raised, for more than eight minutes.
Players and coaches wore Black Lives Matter T-shirts throughout the event.

Eight minutes, 46 seconds is the length of time prosecutors say Floyd,
a 46-year-old Black man, was pinned to the ground under a
white Minneapolis police officer’s knee before he died.

Players and coaches wore Black Lives Matter T-shirts throughout the event.

The anthem was not played before games at the tournament.
Cannon said the players had asked that it not be played before
the game because they didn’t feel it was right
“for the anthem to be played in this moment.”

If, The anthem was not played before games at the tournament.

How did the players from FC Dallas and Nashville SC
collectively take a knee during the national anthem
before their MLS game in Frisco, Texas, on Wednesday night.

Because -- as seen in the 2nd paragrph of my post --
the anthem was not played at the MLS tournament in FLORIDA.

This game (not a tournament!) was in Frisco, Texas.

Source: https://tinyurl.com/y4zlw54s

KEY FACT:

In the last 10 presidential elections with an INCUMBENT president, if the president had
positive approval to disapproval poll numbers, he won re-election.
If he had net negative approval numbers, he lost.

There are obvious reasons why this makes perfect sense!

*In mid-October, this unique indicator has been a near 100% predictive model !
Read source: https://tinyurl.com/ycmcbc6l

trump's job approval numbers,
as of AUGUST 14:   -11.5  (seems to be steady in the 10 to 12 range)

The performance data shown represents past performance, which is no guarantee of future results

You are correct that there is NO guarantee.

I've been handicapping sports since last millenium and if there is one truth we should all know is that there is no guarantee of a favorite winning (or for that matter, the better team) no matter how strong the stats suggesting a win.  No guarantee! 

As they say there are only three things which are guaranteed in life:

taxes, death, and trump LYING repeatedly

I heard it was in this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death and Democrats raising your taxes....

Wow! Really??

That comes as a complete shocker to Canadians, Italians, Japanese, South Africans, Norwegians...etc.etc...

Which one of these countries are you from ?

Canada?

Even the new FOX NEWS poll has trump -9

However, among *MODERATES*  trump is -22