Rubio as the fave to win the Republican nom is a real switch.
Saw something interesting last night that based on how the delegates worked out, that Rubio is closer percentage wise to getting the delegates he needs to get the nomination. Guess that explains why he's the favorite now.
Heard lots of things last night about how Cruz is probably not going to put much effort into New Hampshire, and why would he...seems obvious to skip NH and move to other states.
Trump is at -245 to win New Hampshire...Iowa can be a weird caucus sometimes where an unlikely person wins...wonder if Trump gets back on track in the other states, or if Rubio starts moving forward. Cruz apparently put a huge ground game effort into Iowa, and I'm wondering if he can keep that up in other states.
If you believe that Cruz winning Iowa is an outlier, and that Cruz and Rubio will end up hurting each other...Trump at +250 to win the nomination is great value right now.
Rubio as the fave to win the Republican nom is a real switch.
Saw something interesting last night that based on how the delegates worked out, that Rubio is closer percentage wise to getting the delegates he needs to get the nomination. Guess that explains why he's the favorite now.
Heard lots of things last night about how Cruz is probably not going to put much effort into New Hampshire, and why would he...seems obvious to skip NH and move to other states.
Trump is at -245 to win New Hampshire...Iowa can be a weird caucus sometimes where an unlikely person wins...wonder if Trump gets back on track in the other states, or if Rubio starts moving forward. Cruz apparently put a huge ground game effort into Iowa, and I'm wondering if he can keep that up in other states.
If you believe that Cruz winning Iowa is an outlier, and that Cruz and Rubio will end up hurting each other...Trump at +250 to win the nomination is great value right now.
don't under estate the gop establishment if Rubio gets the nod he can easily walk to the nomination. NH is his stand. trump cant eat a cheese burg without being calld a racist.
the gop isn't about conservative values in this latest fit they only want a r in the white house ... if Rubio seems electable and controllable he is in. inmho
don't under estate the gop establishment if Rubio gets the nod he can easily walk to the nomination. NH is his stand. trump cant eat a cheese burg without being calld a racist.
the gop isn't about conservative values in this latest fit they only want a r in the white house ... if Rubio seems electable and controllable he is in. inmho
don't under estate the gop establishment if Rubio gets the nod he can easily walk to the nomination. NH is his stand. trump cant eat a cheese burg without being calld a racist.
the gop isn't about conservative values in this latest fit they only want a r in the white house ... if Rubio seems electable and controllable he is in. inmho
Trump and Sanders will win in New Hampshire. I'm from the state and I'd say I'm fairly confident in both to win. I see Rubio as a guy who may win some states if he's lucky and get 2nd place in a lot of states. If that does happen, the convention experts have mused about could actually take place, assuming that Trump or Rubio don't end up having a majority.
In my opinion, Cruz is a loser. It's not because of what he stands for, although I believe he probably won some votes in Iowa when he suggested he'd get rid of an EPA regulation that prevents production from increasing. It's just because Iowa isn't representative of the country so I know other states will view him differently. New Hampshire's sudden change with him and Rubio shows it.
Quote Originally Posted by nature1970:
don't under estate the gop establishment if Rubio gets the nod he can easily walk to the nomination. NH is his stand. trump cant eat a cheese burg without being calld a racist.
the gop isn't about conservative values in this latest fit they only want a r in the white house ... if Rubio seems electable and controllable he is in. inmho
Trump and Sanders will win in New Hampshire. I'm from the state and I'd say I'm fairly confident in both to win. I see Rubio as a guy who may win some states if he's lucky and get 2nd place in a lot of states. If that does happen, the convention experts have mused about could actually take place, assuming that Trump or Rubio don't end up having a majority.
In my opinion, Cruz is a loser. It's not because of what he stands for, although I believe he probably won some votes in Iowa when he suggested he'd get rid of an EPA regulation that prevents production from increasing. It's just because Iowa isn't representative of the country so I know other states will view him differently. New Hampshire's sudden change with him and Rubio shows it.
trends are going to be good for Rubio....trump lost and Rubio win on poll today
I think Republican will votes for Rubio now as they know Trump cannot win against clinton it is pretty sure clinton will win democrat poll even if Sanders is battle very good
Rubio vs clinton on pool Rubio could win people will votes regardings match up
trends are going to be good for Rubio....trump lost and Rubio win on poll today
I think Republican will votes for Rubio now as they know Trump cannot win against clinton it is pretty sure clinton will win democrat poll even if Sanders is battle very good
Rubio vs clinton on pool Rubio could win people will votes regardings match up
Lots of craziness going on with the lines before and after these primaries. Trump was -110 as nom before Iowa, +250 after Iowa, and -105 now. Rubio was all over the place as well.
Again, I'm trying to keep this to betting discussion...not political statements.
Here's the best I can come up with after going over the NH primaries.
Big Winners: Trump, and Sanders. I know it's obvious to pick the primary winners as the big winners, but they did what the polls said they should do, and that's big this year. Sanders has become a legit threat to Hillary, and still has value in being the Democratic nom. Not quite sure if it was skill or luck, but the repubs went after Rubio in the debate. And it looks like it worked...except they forgot to go after Trump, the guy leading in the polls. Wonder if that exchange between Christie and Rubio eliminated any chance Rubio has of being the nom.
Big Loser: Marco Rubio. After getting hammered in the debate, he needed good numbers, and didn't get them. He's now +265 to get the nom, and I think that number is low. I wouldn't take any bet of his right now.
Gotta be scarred: Hillary. She's losing big time in the young demographic, and she should be doing a lot better than she is. There are probably lots of reasons she's not taking hold with a lot of people, but I'm not sure there's anything drastic she can do at this point, but try and hold on and hope the dems nominate her because they don't think Bernie can win the general. She's still -460 to win the nom, but I think that's a terrible number.
Futures: Bernie at +365 seems like a good bet right now. If he wins another state, the dems have to look hard at him, and the excitement he's generating. Hillary is killing him in some of the minority demographics, and that's a problem, but if he starts to get some of those numbers in his favor he's a big time contender.
I don't see how you can take anyone besides Trump right now on the republican side. The other candidates may have missed their chance to go after him, and instead they've been going after each other. I don't see anyone with enough momentum or support to catch him right now...but here's the scenario that would have to happen. They all decide to drop out and nominate one of themselves to go head to head against Trump. With the egos, and money on the line, I just don't know if that's possible. But it would be interesting if a couple of them dropped out soon. I just don't know how many Christie supporters will jump to Trumps side if he drops out...or how many Cruz supporters will jump to Trumps side if he drops out, etc...but I really think if it was one of the establishment going up against Trump...the establishment would win.
My favorite future bet I am holding: I still have my Biden to win the election at +7500. Right now he's +1800 to get the democratic nomination, so I love my value, and all the things that I needed to have happen, have or are happening. For my bet to win, I need the dems to be not sold on either Hillary or Bernie, and for polling to start coming out that they are behind or dead even with Trump (or whoever the republican nom would be). So far Hillary isn't looking great, and Bernie is still pretty far left.
Comments welcome...
Lots of craziness going on with the lines before and after these primaries. Trump was -110 as nom before Iowa, +250 after Iowa, and -105 now. Rubio was all over the place as well.
Again, I'm trying to keep this to betting discussion...not political statements.
Here's the best I can come up with after going over the NH primaries.
Big Winners: Trump, and Sanders. I know it's obvious to pick the primary winners as the big winners, but they did what the polls said they should do, and that's big this year. Sanders has become a legit threat to Hillary, and still has value in being the Democratic nom. Not quite sure if it was skill or luck, but the repubs went after Rubio in the debate. And it looks like it worked...except they forgot to go after Trump, the guy leading in the polls. Wonder if that exchange between Christie and Rubio eliminated any chance Rubio has of being the nom.
Big Loser: Marco Rubio. After getting hammered in the debate, he needed good numbers, and didn't get them. He's now +265 to get the nom, and I think that number is low. I wouldn't take any bet of his right now.
Gotta be scarred: Hillary. She's losing big time in the young demographic, and she should be doing a lot better than she is. There are probably lots of reasons she's not taking hold with a lot of people, but I'm not sure there's anything drastic she can do at this point, but try and hold on and hope the dems nominate her because they don't think Bernie can win the general. She's still -460 to win the nom, but I think that's a terrible number.
Futures: Bernie at +365 seems like a good bet right now. If he wins another state, the dems have to look hard at him, and the excitement he's generating. Hillary is killing him in some of the minority demographics, and that's a problem, but if he starts to get some of those numbers in his favor he's a big time contender.
I don't see how you can take anyone besides Trump right now on the republican side. The other candidates may have missed their chance to go after him, and instead they've been going after each other. I don't see anyone with enough momentum or support to catch him right now...but here's the scenario that would have to happen. They all decide to drop out and nominate one of themselves to go head to head against Trump. With the egos, and money on the line, I just don't know if that's possible. But it would be interesting if a couple of them dropped out soon. I just don't know how many Christie supporters will jump to Trumps side if he drops out...or how many Cruz supporters will jump to Trumps side if he drops out, etc...but I really think if it was one of the establishment going up against Trump...the establishment would win.
My favorite future bet I am holding: I still have my Biden to win the election at +7500. Right now he's +1800 to get the democratic nomination, so I love my value, and all the things that I needed to have happen, have or are happening. For my bet to win, I need the dems to be not sold on either Hillary or Bernie, and for polling to start coming out that they are behind or dead even with Trump (or whoever the republican nom would be). So far Hillary isn't looking great, and Bernie is still pretty far left.
more i look at this the more fustration builds i am going to have to wait till after nevada if both sc and nevada draw even between hillary and bernie.
then bernie loses if one state tips radically one way or the winner gets the nod.
the other side sc the winner has a clear path. if it is trump and no other can gain a serious position over the field to be an alternative to trump then trump wins if cruz wins or is clear second choice then trump wins.
the possibilities are seriously short of a clear rejection of trump less than third showing in both sc and nevada trump will face hillary.
at this stage it is about money and campaigns will run short with out the kick in from general election fund.
more i look at this the more fustration builds i am going to have to wait till after nevada if both sc and nevada draw even between hillary and bernie.
then bernie loses if one state tips radically one way or the winner gets the nod.
the other side sc the winner has a clear path. if it is trump and no other can gain a serious position over the field to be an alternative to trump then trump wins if cruz wins or is clear second choice then trump wins.
the possibilities are seriously short of a clear rejection of trump less than third showing in both sc and nevada trump will face hillary.
at this stage it is about money and campaigns will run short with out the kick in from general election fund.
bottom line Kasich must win or a close second, rubio , bush this is a must win. trump wins it ices the nomination. Bernie must somehow get reid from nevada endorsement ... or face the enevitable super delegates decided hillary already she has 300 delegates. to the nomination... obama all but gave her a big smooch in todays speech
bottom line Kasich must win or a close second, rubio , bush this is a must win. trump wins it ices the nomination. Bernie must somehow get reid from nevada endorsement ... or face the enevitable super delegates decided hillary already she has 300 delegates. to the nomination... obama all but gave her a big smooch in todays speech
I didn't anticipate Rubio going into robot mode. He'll probably correct that next time but it killed him in the short term. Forget about the delegates. Let's talk Bernie Sanders. I've been telling people for months that he would challenge Hillary. I'd rather not go into a long speech as to the reasons why but I think I can hit on a few points.
1. The polls showing Americans are against socialism are outdated. Yes, I said outdated. What Bernie has successful done is convince enough Americans that some aspects of socialism are fine and they aren't nearly as scared of it as they were before. I believe the rise in his popularity has coincided with this.
2. Democrats who identify themselves as somewhat liberal or liberal went up from 54% last time in New Hampshire to 68% this time and 60% in Iowa to 68% now. This shift indicates more Democrats are willing to vote for a candidate who's to the far left than previously before.
3. There's a large gap between young and old voters when it comes to Bernie and Hillary. Bernie so far has gotten around 80% of young voters so far to be on his side. That's a long-term problem for Hillary since new voters are registering and increasing the overall number of voters. Hillary is relying on traditional support to win the nomination, which may not be enough if some of those supporters gravitate towards Bernie, along with the younger crowd.
4. The majority of Americans are poor. Yes, some will argue what the definition of poor is but most people are in debt and have little equity at all. When that's the reality, which is pretty hard to argue against, one needs to consider that the only thing preventing Bernie from winning is whether people go out and vote. If they come out in record numbers, he wins.
I didn't anticipate Rubio going into robot mode. He'll probably correct that next time but it killed him in the short term. Forget about the delegates. Let's talk Bernie Sanders. I've been telling people for months that he would challenge Hillary. I'd rather not go into a long speech as to the reasons why but I think I can hit on a few points.
1. The polls showing Americans are against socialism are outdated. Yes, I said outdated. What Bernie has successful done is convince enough Americans that some aspects of socialism are fine and they aren't nearly as scared of it as they were before. I believe the rise in his popularity has coincided with this.
2. Democrats who identify themselves as somewhat liberal or liberal went up from 54% last time in New Hampshire to 68% this time and 60% in Iowa to 68% now. This shift indicates more Democrats are willing to vote for a candidate who's to the far left than previously before.
3. There's a large gap between young and old voters when it comes to Bernie and Hillary. Bernie so far has gotten around 80% of young voters so far to be on his side. That's a long-term problem for Hillary since new voters are registering and increasing the overall number of voters. Hillary is relying on traditional support to win the nomination, which may not be enough if some of those supporters gravitate towards Bernie, along with the younger crowd.
4. The majority of Americans are poor. Yes, some will argue what the definition of poor is but most people are in debt and have little equity at all. When that's the reality, which is pretty hard to argue against, one needs to consider that the only thing preventing Bernie from winning is whether people go out and vote. If they come out in record numbers, he wins.
I didn't anticipate Rubio going into robot mode. He'll probably correct that next time but it killed him in the short term. Forget about the delegates. Let's talk Bernie Sanders. I've been telling people for months that he would challenge Hillary. I'd rather not go into a long speech as to the reasons why but I think I can hit on a few points.
1. The polls showing Americans are against socialism are outdated. Yes, I said outdated. What Bernie has successful done is convince enough Americans that some aspects of socialism are fine and they aren't nearly as scared of it as they were before. I believe the rise in his popularity has coincided with this.
2. Democrats who identify themselves as somewhat liberal or liberal went up from 54% last time in New Hampshire to 68% this time and 60% in Iowa to 68% now. This shift indicates more Democrats are willing to vote for a candidate who's to the far left than previously before.
3. There's a large gap between young and old voters when it comes to Bernie and Hillary. Bernie so far has gotten around 80% of young voters so far to be on his side. That's a long-term problem for Hillary since new voters are registering and increasing the overall number of voters. Hillary is relying on traditional support to win the nomination, which may not be enough if some of those supporters gravitate towards Bernie, along with the younger crowd.
4. The majority of Americans are poor. Yes, some will argue what the definition of poor is but most people are in debt and have little equity at all. When that's the reality, which is pretty hard to argue against, one needs to consider that the only thing preventing Bernie from winning is whether people go out and vote. If they come out in record numbers, he wins.
Excellent analysis.
Quote Originally Posted by sicknesscity:
I didn't anticipate Rubio going into robot mode. He'll probably correct that next time but it killed him in the short term. Forget about the delegates. Let's talk Bernie Sanders. I've been telling people for months that he would challenge Hillary. I'd rather not go into a long speech as to the reasons why but I think I can hit on a few points.
1. The polls showing Americans are against socialism are outdated. Yes, I said outdated. What Bernie has successful done is convince enough Americans that some aspects of socialism are fine and they aren't nearly as scared of it as they were before. I believe the rise in his popularity has coincided with this.
2. Democrats who identify themselves as somewhat liberal or liberal went up from 54% last time in New Hampshire to 68% this time and 60% in Iowa to 68% now. This shift indicates more Democrats are willing to vote for a candidate who's to the far left than previously before.
3. There's a large gap between young and old voters when it comes to Bernie and Hillary. Bernie so far has gotten around 80% of young voters so far to be on his side. That's a long-term problem for Hillary since new voters are registering and increasing the overall number of voters. Hillary is relying on traditional support to win the nomination, which may not be enough if some of those supporters gravitate towards Bernie, along with the younger crowd.
4. The majority of Americans are poor. Yes, some will argue what the definition of poor is but most people are in debt and have little equity at all. When that's the reality, which is pretty hard to argue against, one needs to consider that the only thing preventing Bernie from winning is whether people go out and vote. If they come out in record numbers, he wins.
To be fair I could be completely wrong. One thing I'd really like to see is how they fare with Independents in the upcoming states. A lot of polls can be transitory or misleading but I believe that specific poll will be telling. I suspect more Independents will support Bernie over Hillary.
To be fair I could be completely wrong. One thing I'd really like to see is how they fare with Independents in the upcoming states. A lot of polls can be transitory or misleading but I believe that specific poll will be telling. I suspect more Independents will support Bernie over Hillary.
To be fair I could be completely wrong. One thing I'd really like to see is how they fare with Independents in the upcoming states. A lot of polls can be transitory or misleading but I believe that specific poll will be telling. I suspect more Independents will support Bernie over Hillary.
I thought HRC, being closer to the center, would lead among independents. You were right and I was wrong.
To be fair I could be completely wrong. One thing I'd really like to see is how they fare with Independents in the upcoming states. A lot of polls can be transitory or misleading but I believe that specific poll will be telling. I suspect more Independents will support Bernie over Hillary.
I thought HRC, being closer to the center, would lead among independents. You were right and I was wrong.
I need to see more to come to a conclusive decision. I asked because I've heard talk about the "electability" of Hillary vs. Bernie. My hunch is that in a general election Bernie stands a better chance of beating Trump (or if somehow it's someone else) than Hillary does. My reasoning is I believe those voting (I) are more inclined to support Bernie, which ultimately would be the deciding factor in Republicans or Democrats winning. The pundits always seem to forget to discuss the Independents. They're the ones who swing elections these days.
I need to see more to come to a conclusive decision. I asked because I've heard talk about the "electability" of Hillary vs. Bernie. My hunch is that in a general election Bernie stands a better chance of beating Trump (or if somehow it's someone else) than Hillary does. My reasoning is I believe those voting (I) are more inclined to support Bernie, which ultimately would be the deciding factor in Republicans or Democrats winning. The pundits always seem to forget to discuss the Independents. They're the ones who swing elections these days.
Lots of futures out for primaries. Trump is favored in all of them, which make makes sense...but I'm wondering if we can nail down a couple of them to wager on now...
Anyone have any insights into some of these states?
Nevada, Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Tennessee, Vermont, Virginia
I feel like there is really good opportunity if we can find info on some of these states...
Lots of futures out for primaries. Trump is favored in all of them, which make makes sense...but I'm wondering if we can nail down a couple of them to wager on now...
Anyone have any insights into some of these states?
Nevada, Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Tennessee, Vermont, Virginia
I feel like there is really good opportunity if we can find info on some of these states...
= for sure highly favorable thing.
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