Posted:
#101
Thank you Bling, BigF 
Hello Earth. Let me respond to your post. I was asked to list 20 different potential weaknesses I have noticed at a poker table. Going into detail on each would have been quite time consuming. Thats why I mentioned in my post if anyone wants me to elaborate on a specific weakness just ask and I will when I have the time. Now to your question.
No of course you do not ALWAYS continuation bet after you raised preflop. Although guys like Dan Harrington and Barry Greenstein made a fortune doing just that in the last 25 years. In the old days the logic was simple, you made a pre flop bet which implied strength. Your opponent called and did not raise, which implies weakness. So if you "continue the story" and raise the flop more often then not you will take the pot down immediately since more then likely your opponent missed the flop. The odds of flopping a single pair or better is 32% and of course most of that is bottom or middle pair which is nothing special. So a continuation bet was far more often then not the best play.
Unfortunately modern players know that flopping a pair is difficult. Flopping two pair if you have non paired cards is TWO PERCENT. So 1 out of 50 times! So sometimes when you continuation bet opponents will float or even raise you. Float means call with nothing to steal the pot later on the turn or river with a bluff of their own. These types of techniques were not employed 15 years ago so now as the pre flop aggressor you have to be more savvy then in the old days. All of this means the continuation bet is not as rock solid as it used to be. It is still something you NEED to do, but you can not just close your eyes and throw chips at the pot like in the old days and get your opponent to fold 80+% of the time.
Ok so when do we continuation bet even if we miss the flop when playing live poker ??
1. Dry flops are a good spot to continuation bet . A dry flop is a board your opponent probably missed. For example 3-6-10 rainbow ( three suits) probably did not help him or you. If you bet here even IF your opponent got a piece of this flop he may fear you have an over pair and he is still in trouble. Also you do not have to worry about him having two pair or an over pair himself. Why not you ask? Because if he had two of these crappy cards he would not have called your raise pre flop and if he had an over pair he would have re raised you preflop. These are great spots to make a continuation bet.
2. If a flop is in your raise range. For instance lets say you raise pre flop with 77 and the flop is A K 8 rainbow. Well that is certainly a bad flop for your actual hand but its a good flop for your range. As the pre flop aggressor those two high cards on the flop are very scary to your opponent. So many raising hands will smack that flop in the mouth that even if he has a piece, K10 suited for example, he will fear you have the Ace or have his King out kicked. Also you dont have to fear his range too much because if he has AA KK or AK he is probably raising you pre flop not just calling you. So unless he has 88 and flopped bottom set you are putting him in a tough spot with this continuation bet.
3. Opponent tendencies is the most important aspect of continuation betting. I did not put it on top because many times you do not know your opponent well enough to have any info on his tendencies. However sometimes you do. Lets say you do know your opponents some, well the tight players that only stick around with Top pair or better you should absolutely make a continuation bet even if you completely missed the flop. The guys who short stack or are maniacs and often push all in if they are facing a bet after the flop you have to be more cautious with. You only bet against them with a piece of the flop, whether it be a draw or a pair.
4. Multi barrel bluffs are also critical to beating anything higher then 1-2/2-5 NL games. When a flop comes and you do make a continuation bet be aware of cards that would make a turn bet scary to your opponent and what will not. I will give an extreme example to illustrate. Lets say you raise pre flop with 66 and get one caller. Flop is A Q 7 and you make your continuation bet but your opponent calls. The turn is a 2. This is not a great card to bluff at because if your opponent felt he was okay with A Q 7 then the 2 certainly isnt going to strike the fear of god into him. Now if the turn is a King a second barrel is more likely to get your opponent to fold. Because a king smacks right in the middle of your hand range, that 2 certainly did not.
5. Bet your draws on the flop. If you pick up a strong flush or straight draw on the flop bet it. You may scoop the pot right there and if you do not you will bloat the pot which will be hugely beneficial if you make the draw on the turn. If you make the draw on the turn a check on the turn can also be very effective because it makes it look like you are upset that 3rd club came or the third straight card. Many times your opponent will perceive your check as weakness and bet into your very strong hand trying to represent that they hit the draw you actually hit. These spots can really be profitable and you need to exploit whenever possible
When not to continuation bet if you missed flop
1. Multiway pots, three or four players greatly increases the chance of a call or two that you do not want
2 A calling station called your pre flop raise. If you missed the flop calling stations can be a nightmare. Unless you are prepared to fire a second or even third bullet tread carefully. if you hit the flop they are heaven on earth if not it may be time to shut it down
3 Very coordinated flop. 8d 9d 10s type flops are not something to normally continuation bet against. You want to see 2c 6d 10h type flops. Coordinated flops give your opponents too many possibilities and he may have gotten a piece.
4 being out of position against the opponent that called pre flop is also a negative but not a critical factor regarding continuation bets after you missed the flop.
5. Your one caller was the short stack and he is virtually pot committed. This is rare but it happens. Lets say you are playing 5-10 and there is a limper or two and you make it 40 to go. The only caller of your 40 is a player who is currently really low on chips, lets say he had 75 before the hand started. Well now he called your 40 and there is 115 in the pot after the flop. He only has 35 left so putting him all in would mean he has to call 35 for a chance to win 150, if he is a smart player he is calling with virtually anything so be aware of this type of situation.
6. If someone is on super tilt and having a tough session ( lets say he just had to re buy in the last 5-10 minutes) be wary of continuation betting with nothing. He may be very reluctant to surrender his hand just out of frustration.
Those are some of the tactics to employ when you raise pre flop and miss the flop. There is tons more of course but this is some of the basics.
0
u must rerz blocker bets
Hot Forum Topics
