Posted:
#751
Pitt...this train is rollin and we thank you for the hard work... 
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PittVipers - 50 days - 100 plays - 60% winners?
Posted:
#759
Yo Pitt,
Whatever happens I hope you stick around and don't leave like others who develop a following and then cool off a little. Thats not to say that you aren't a great capper thats to say that followers become assholes if they lose 2 or 3 bets even if they won 6 or 7 off of your picks.
gl bro
Whatever happens I hope you stick around and don't leave like others who develop a following and then cool off a little. Thats not to say that you aren't a great capper thats to say that followers become assholes if they lose 2 or 3 bets even if they won 6 or 7 off of your picks.
gl bro
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Posted:
#761
After reading this I agree 100%. Totoally different situation than the other. Your point about OKC record against good and bad teams was solid. i didnt look into it that far. I am on board with both picks. I will post mypicks today. My NCCA are usually solid. I had texas and under on the kent state game yesterday. Thanks Viper I am on board with both
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Posted:
#762
Pitt, I've been on covers now going on three years and as you can see I don't post hardly anything. I want to congratulate you on your hot streak man, very impressive. I was wondering what your take is on Northwestern tonight against Michigan. I see Northwestern beat Michigan earlier this year by 6 points at Michigan, why is the spread only 2 at home? I would think Vegas is sucking people in to bet Northwestern at only a two point favorite. I'm just interested on your insight for this game.
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Posted:
#763
Quote Originally Posted by pittviper:
A couple reasons why this game is not like last nights lakers game:
A couple reasons why this game is not like last nights lakers game:
The line opened with OK City as favourites rather then like Memphis as dogs. This can be a big indicater that the book is expecting money on Oklahoma City or that Atlanta is not as big of a public favourite as the Lakers were.
Memphis was good against top teams (they are 8-9). Oklahoma City is not good against top 10 teams, they are 6-12 and are a total 9-16 against playoff teams. Those average out to around 30%. Against non playoff teams, however, they are 17-5 against NON playoff teams. I have won bets on them many times this year when they've been on the road, when they are undervalued, and playing a bad team, a few of these times they've been underdogs.
To be honest Oklahoma City doesn't have many fans. They actually play better on the road, though their record might not show it because of strength of opponent. I figure on the road they atleast have something to prove to the fans or at least have lots of fans to play in front of. They are 14-10 this season at home, but with most of those wins coming against non-playoff teams. Virtually Oklahoma City has ZERO home advantage. Weird huh.
Anyways, point is .. that is another difference between the Memphis game.
Like I said earlier, Lakers were tired, on an eight game road trip, 4 games in five nights .. while Atlanta is fresh off two days rest .. and a loss they've been itching to redeem themselves for .. and time for the coaches to plan for this game. I believe they are something like 6-2 off two days of rest this year.
Atlanta 7-3 past 10, but are off an OT loss .. OK City 5-5 past 10, off a win vs a bad team.
See sniper77, this game may look the same as lights lakers memphis game at first glance but if you look deeper into it you'll see it is nothing close. Two different basketball teams, in two different situations.
Great analysis. Thanks again for the Memphis and Iona plays last night. Memphis turned out a lot like you said and Lakers were missing some easy shots -- something typical from being tired. Being a Laker fan, it still would've been nice if Artest hits that open jumper.
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Posted:
#766
Quote Originally Posted by LV23Plower:
Well done pittviper!! Please dont ever leave us and go tout. It will be a sad, sad day. Thanks again for your insight and lets keep hammerin the books!!
Well done pittviper!! Please dont ever leave us and go tout. It will be a sad, sad day. Thanks again for your insight and lets keep hammerin the books!!
i 2nd that. have seen it happen WAY too many times during my short time here, and seems to NEVER work out well.
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Posted:
#772
Quote Originally Posted by Ice4Blood:
i don't know... the single-best ATS trend i have found in the NBA this year belongs to OKC, and that trend applies to this game...
OKC is 16-2 ATS coming off an ATS loss... not sure if i am eager to go against that one...
ATLANTA: 7-0 ATS after a DD loss
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Posted:
#775
Northwestern are 14-7 overall this season, but they are only 3-6 in Big Ten play, making this a big game for them when they host a Michigan Wolverines team that has not done well on the road.
the home vs. away splits for these teams appears to favor Northwestern by a safe margin here, making this tiny spread seem very light. The Wildcats are 10-3 here at home while outscoring their Division I opponents by an average of +8.1 points per game. Their two conference home losses have come vs. two of the best Big Ten teams in Michigan State and Wisconsin, and Northwestern recently beat Purdue in this building.
Michigan is 11-10 overall but a terrible 1-5 on the road, where they are being outscored by an average of -5.6 points per game. The Wolverines snapped a three-game losing streak by beating one of the weakest teams in the conference, Iowa, 60-46 at home, covering the spread by just half a point. They also lost outright to these Wildcats at home last month, making Northwestern 3-1 ATS in the last four head-to-head meetings.
Northwestern is averaging 68.9 points per game, but they run a very methodical offense that averages just 64.6 possessions per game according to the Pomeroy Ratings, a pace that ranks 296 in the country. Thus, 68.9 points for them is like a normal paced team scoring near 80, and this is evidenced by the fact that Northwestern ranks 51 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency at 1.102 points per possession.
On the other hand, Michigan ranks 101 in that category with an adjusted PPP of 1.060, and playing on the road where they have struggled does not help their cause here either. This line may be held down because of the revenge motive, but that is not enough IMO.
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