Northwestern are 14-7 overall this season, but they are only 3-6 in Big Ten play, making this a big game for them when they host a Michigan Wolverines team that has not done well on the road.
the home vs. away splits for these teams appears to favor Northwestern by a safe margin here, making this tiny spread seem very light. The Wildcats are 10-3 here at home while outscoring their Division I opponents by an average of +8.1 points per game. Their two conference home losses have come vs. two of the best Big Ten teams in Michigan State and Wisconsin, and Northwestern recently beat Purdue in this building.
Michigan is 11-10 overall but a terrible 1-5 on the road, where they are being outscored by an average of -5.6 points per game. The Wolverines snapped a three-game losing streak by beating one of the weakest teams in the conference, Iowa, 60-46 at home, covering the spread by just half a point. They also lost outright to these Wildcats at home last month, making Northwestern 3-1 ATS in the last four head-to-head meetings.
Northwestern is averaging 68.9 points per game, but they run a very methodical offense that averages just 64.6 possessions per game according to the Pomeroy Ratings, a pace that ranks 296 in the country. Thus, 68.9 points for them is like a normal paced team scoring near 80, and this is evidenced by the fact that Northwestern ranks 51 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency at 1.102 points per possession.
On the other hand, Michigan ranks 101 in that category with an adjusted PPP of 1.060, and playing on the road where they have struggled does not help their cause here either. This line may be held down because of the revenge motive, but that is not enough IMO.
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