Posted:
#301
2nd half sir?
Phixer's NFL Continued
Posted:
#311
Quote Originally Posted by Mr_Coffee_Shop:
I think you're not as good as many think here Phixer. I think most of the credit you get is because you have streaks. I think you're luckier than smart. What you have to say about that smooth talker?
I think you're not as good as many think here Phixer. I think most of the credit you get is because you have streaks. I think you're luckier than smart. What you have to say about that smooth talker?
Haha, why would he take time to respond to you? You proved nothing and wrote nothing with substance. You might as well just called him a pooh pooh face.
Posted:
#314
NFL Week 7: SD Chargers vs KC Chiefs
When you take a look at the games scheduled for week 7 - this one stands out in its oddity: the Chargers who are on 5 game winning streak and won all 3 at home, with Rivers in an excellent form - are actually an Underdog according to a line movement and the public sentiment against the Chiefs who are 2-3 and are prone to long non scoring periods during the game. The line moved from -5.5 home to -4 due to several reasons. SD -5.5 was released by LVSC and was doctored by the books quickly to -4.5 which also came down half a point due to heavy betting on the Chiefs because of several reasons: the games between the teams have been close in most of the recent ones, the Chargers are still short handed against the rested Chiefs who are coming off a bye week and Andy Reid's ability to adjust his games especially to each opponents offensive and defensive games. In this game he will try to shorten the offensive abilities of the Chargers as well as utilizing on running abilities of the Chiefs. Most of the Chargers wins came against the teams with limited running abilities except the one against the defending Super Bowl Champions the Seahawks while the Chiefs had much tougher schedule than the Chargers having to play in Denver and SF where they lost by a TD in Denver and 5 points in SF.
The game is projected at 23-19 score wise but the totals line is 45.5. That brings me to a conclusion that 5-1 ATS Chargers will have a hard time against the Chiefs but eventually will cover the spread of -4. Because of Rivers. Because of playing at home. Because of everyone expecting a close game. Because of being as ready as possible for this one against Reid and because Oakland game was a set up for this one.
This is a 5 Units Play
SD Chargers -4 -110
550$
Posted:
#315
NFL Week 7: DET Lions vs NO Saints
From a first glance it looks as no brainer at all: the Saints lost 6 straight and 8 out of 9 away - so why this one should be any different? The Lions boast top defense in NFL, the line is Detroit -2.5 - a mere FG and the Saints - even when leading in the fourth quarter - have blown up the leads. Ok. Now let's look at the other side of the coin: Drew Brees owns Detroit: he is 4-0 as a starter against them, completing 75.2 percent of his passes for an average of 379.3 yards with 14 TDs and one interception for a 133.8 rating. IOn addition - the Saints are coming off a bye week and will not throw away the game in the fourth for a third time if they will get there leading. Add to that an inviting -2/5 line for the Lions - the line that almost never covers for the team when given a FG spread as LVSC are not stupid to throw a ML option away and grant us a low juice spread that is almost equal to a ML win outcome wise. Another thing is that the weakness demonstrated by the Saints this season will not continue as they will come back with a signature win and what a better place to do it than Detroit where they like to play so much. I will buy a half a point for an insurance although if no choice - I would easily accept +2.5 line as well for the Saints.
This is a 5 Units Play
NO Saints +3 -140
700$
Posted:
#316
Quote Originally Posted by phixer:
NFL Week 7: SD Chargers vs KC Chiefs
NFL Week 7: SD Chargers vs KC Chiefs
When you take a look at the games scheduled for week 7 - this one stands out in its oddity: the Chargers who are on 5 game winning streak and won all 3 at home, with Rivers in an excellent form - are actually an Underdog according to a line movement and the public sentiment against the Chiefs who are 2-3 and are prone to long non scoring periods during the game. The line moved from -5.5 home to -4 due to several reasons. SD -5.5 was released by LVSC and was doctored by the books quickly to -4.5 which also came down half a point due to heavy betting on the Chiefs because of several reasons: the games between the teams have been close in most of the recent ones, the Chargers are still short handed against the rested Chiefs who are coming off a bye week and Andy Reid's ability to adjust his games especially to each opponents offensive and defensive games. In this game he will try to shorten the offensive abilities of the Chargers as well as utilizing on running abilities of the Chiefs. Most of the Chargers wins came against the teams with limited running abilities except the one against the defending Super Bowl Champions the Seahawks while the Chiefs had much tougher schedule than the Chargers having to play in Denver and SF where they lost by a TD in Denver and 5 points in SF.
The game is projected at 23-19 score wise but the totals line is 45.5. That brings me to a conclusion that 5-1 ATS Chargers will have a hard time against the Chiefs but eventually will cover the spread of -4. Because of Rivers. Because of playing at home. Because of everyone expecting a close game. Because of being as ready as possible for this one against Reid and because Oakland game was a set up for this one.
This is a 5 Units Play
SD Chargers -4 -110
550$
I don't get this analysis Phix. You give 5 good reasons to back the Chiefs and then you pick the Chargers and give away 4 points (in a game you think will be a close) because Rivers is playing at home and everyone is expecting it to be a close game (huh?). In other words, reading your entire take on the game makes me want to take the Chiefs and the points (in a close game) or just stay away because it looks like a toss-up at best.
Posted:
#317
Quote Originally Posted by phixer:
NFL Week 7: SD Chargers vs KC Chiefs
NFL Week 7: SD Chargers vs KC Chiefs
The game is projected at 23-19 score wise but the totals line is 45.5. That brings me to a conclusion that 5-1 ATS Chargers will have a hard time against the Chiefs but eventually will cover the spread of -4. Because of Rivers. Because of playing at home. Because of everyone expecting a close game. Because of being as ready as possible for this one against Reid and because Oakland game was a set up for this one.
This is a 5 Units Play
SD Chargers -4 -110
550$
Excellent pick phixer.... Giants +6.5, SD -4, NO +3, raiders +3.5, SF +6.5 
And panthers +7
And panthers +7
Posted:
#318
agree with the saints pick phixer, however i have a question about san diego pick. i don't trust the san diego run defense. they have looked good till now however for some reason team's are not running much on them. they are second in the league of opponents rush attempts against them at about 21(behind san francisco at about 20), but are 26th i believe in yards given up per rush attempt(4.6 or 4.7). Why? i have no frigging clue. if i was a head coach, i'd be running 50-60 percent of the time against this team. and i have to believe that KC will run the ball quite often. for me, it's either KC or no bet. would like to hear more from you on this game. either way GL
Posted:
#320
Quote Originally Posted by rosaritoking:
agree with the saints pick phixer, however i have a question about san diego pick. i don't trust the san diego run defense. they have looked good till now however for some reason team's are not running much on them. they are second in the league of opponents rush attempts against them at about 21(behind san francisco at about 20), but are 26th i believe in yards given up per rush attempt(4.6 or 4.7). Why? i have no frigging clue. if i was a head coach, i'd be running 50-60 percent of the time against this team. and i have to believe that KC will run the ball quite often. for me, it's either KC or no bet. would like to hear more from you on this game. either way GL
agree with the saints pick phixer, however i have a question about san diego pick. i don't trust the san diego run defense. they have looked good till now however for some reason team's are not running much on them. they are second in the league of opponents rush attempts against them at about 21(behind san francisco at about 20), but are 26th i believe in yards given up per rush attempt(4.6 or 4.7). Why? i have no frigging clue. if i was a head coach, i'd be running 50-60 percent of the time against this team. and i have to believe that KC will run the ball quite often. for me, it's either KC or no bet. would like to hear more from you on this game. either way GL
in a perfectly mathematical world where the matrix would be running all - this would be a 10 unit chiefs+4 pick and another 5 units on chiefs ml. i would even consider still betting on kc if the public sentiment was on sd who beat denver etc. vegas prepared all this platter but public do not buy and is rightfully so on reids and chiefs side. i am on our side and our side is always trying to find out what is good for vegas and can vegas make happen. in case of chargers hosting chiefs - with rivers and the chargers knowing they will be ran on - i think the surprise factor is gone. another thing is the stats you posted right after - all the teams that rank low in running and ran so much against the chargers: well, may be that is why chargers did not find it necessary to invest against them? i dont know. i am willing to risk 5 units to check vagas hands on this one
Posted:
#321
NFL Week 7 SNF: DEN Broncos vs SF 49ers
This is one of the most interesting match ups this weekend where besides the fact that we have two of the best teams since 2012 meeting - we also have a behind the scenes drama unfolding with Harbaugh's shaky situation at the Niners organization as well as his point to proof situation with Peyton Manning and John Elway. There will be no love lost here and there will be no mercy on part of the Broncos as what happened or did not happen before Manning choosing the Broncos over the Niners and all the love-hate story may very well influence this match up. The only breaking point is that Elway and Manning are capable while the Niners are not. Not with the constellation we have here and not in Denver.
This game and a game in San Diego are the games where you would expect the public sentiment to be on the home teams nut it is not. I am taking a risk here going against all the experts and analysts who are backing the visiting teams in those games to cover and may come out wrong at the end of the day. But as I said i the write up about the game in San Diego - I'd like to pay and check the hands of Vegas on those two games. Look at it as my private picks and if you feel uncomfortable agreeing with me - do as you wish. But I take those two picks knowing that I am pissing against the wind but counting on my current to be strong enough not piss on my shoes.
This is a 5 Units Play
DEN Broncos -6.5 -110
550$
Posted:
#324
Quote Originally Posted by phixer:
NFL Week 7: DET Lions vs NO Saints
NFL Week 7: DET Lions vs NO Saints
From a first glance it looks as no brainer at all: the Saints lost 6 straight and 8 out of 9 away - so why this one should be any different? The Lions boast top defense in NFL, the line is Detroit -2.5 - a mere FG and the Saints - even when leading in the fourth quarter - have blown up the leads. Ok. Now let's look at the other side of the coin: Drew Brees owns Detroit: he is 4-0 as a starter against them, completing 75.2 percent of his passes for an average of 379.3 yards with 14 TDs and one interception for a 133.8 rating. IOn addition - the Saints are coming off a bye week and will not throw away the game in the fourth for a third time if they will get there leading. Add to that an inviting -2/5 line for the Lions - the line that almost never covers for the team when given a FG spread as LVSC are not stupid to throw a ML option away and grant us a low juice spread that is almost equal to a ML win outcome wise. Another thing is that the weakness demonstrated by the Saints this season will not continue as they will come back with a signature win and what a better place to do it than Detroit where they like to play so much. I will buy a half a point for an insurance although if no choice - I would easily accept +2.5 line as well for the Saints.
This is a 5 Units Play
NO Saints +3 -140
700$
NO Saints +3 -140 win +500$
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