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    NCAA wk 6

    «First Previous 234 ... 567 Next Last»
    Upside
    MEGALOCKS
    boltsfan
    IndyHoosier
    Wizerguy
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    Upside
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    Posted: Oct. 1, 2013 - 2:43 PM ET #26

    Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

    First play

    will not be popular

    Utah +4

    First let's start with what could go wrong? Well if UCLA is THAT good - we are toast. Can live with that. Not a biggie.

    What do we see? Keeping in mind this is in the context of UCLA laying 4.

    UCLA - its not their fault mind you - but they have played defenses ranked 113 107 and 123 in total yards....We really like the team - just saying...Hundley is a stud at QB...No doubt - but seriously they have faced no resistance so far....And don't forget how they looked first H vs Huskers travel and fallen teammate notwithstanding....They traditionally have a hard time playing four quarters and Utah is scrappy enough to take advantage in a close game.....UCLA ranked 99th in turnover margin and 121st in penalties/game...uh oh...So they are a statistical monster for sure - and pretty ESPN highlights no doubt like Fresno St - but are untested....Utah has a win over BYU and Utah St - we call those quality wins....3 pt loss to freakshow Oregon St - another tough one.......Get this - the offenses they have played include those ranked 21 24 26....Defenses they have played include those ranked 22 23 71.....Very balanced on offense - QB is a duel threat not unlike Hundley....64% 9.7/attempt and 9 td/3int....251 rushing and 5 td almost 8/att....Utah faced a good running qb vs BYU held him to 20-99 att and less than 50% passing....Last yr 21-14 at ucla 2yago 31-6....Utah is always dangerous when they have a qb - and after a yr and a bit of disgusting filth - have someone grown up and a MAN

    GL freaks

     

     

    I'm waiting till Thursday UCLA will be - 6 IMO .. Jump on the Red Raiders this week - 17 1/2 at Kansas .. 
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

    First play

    will not be popular

    Utah +4

    First let's start with what could go wrong? Well if UCLA is THAT good - we are toast. Can live with that. Not a biggie.

    What do we see? Keeping in mind this is in the context of UCLA laying 4.

    UCLA - its not their fault mind you - but they have played defenses ranked 113 107 and 123 in total yards....We really like the team - just saying...Hundley is a stud at QB...No doubt - but seriously they have faced no resistance so far....And don't forget how they looked first H vs Huskers travel and fallen teammate notwithstanding....They traditionally have a hard time playing four quarters and Utah is scrappy enough to take advantage in a close game.....UCLA ranked 99th in turnover margin and 121st in penalties/game...uh oh...So they are a statistical monster for sure - and pretty ESPN highlights no doubt like Fresno St - but are untested....Utah has a win over BYU and Utah St - we call those quality wins....3 pt loss to freakshow Oregon St - another tough one.......Get this - the offenses they have played include those ranked 21 24 26....Defenses they have played include those ranked 22 23 71.....Very balanced on offense - QB is a duel threat not unlike Hundley....64% 9.7/attempt and 9 td/3int....251 rushing and 5 td almost 8/att....Utah faced a good running qb vs BYU held him to 20-99 att and less than 50% passing....Last yr 21-14 at ucla 2yago 31-6....Utah is always dangerous when they have a qb - and after a yr and a bit of disgusting filth - have someone grown up and a MAN

    GL freaks

     

     

    I'm waiting till Thursday UCLA will be - 6 IMO .. Jump on the Red Raiders this week - 17 1/2 at Kansas .. 
     
    MEGALOCKS
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    Posted: Oct. 1, 2013 - 2:46 PM ET #27

    fsu 14.5 Maryland (59.5)

    Maryland a juggernaut no doubt - but have a questionable strength of schedule much like FSU - also have lost 6 straight to Noles by avg of 19 ppg.....top 2 corners - at least - 2 of top corners - out for this one and that is a bit of concern vs the Fighting Winstons; FSU D looked a bit suspect LW vs run and allowed 4 TD passes....Have the fair line right here - 10 + 4 for HF - is 14 so don't see a ton of value on Maryland even tho they can win SU - Throw Maryland in ML wheel options - no lean on side - no lean on total both offenses explosive and Ds untested

    Louisville 33 Temple (58)

    Louisville in a definite letdown spot and coming off a 70 point win - spread probably a TD too high but not playing a team with the 120th ranked D vs a super QB and a D not giving up more than 13 yet. no lean on side or total

    Penn St 4 Indiana (62)

    initial lean was hammer penn st but this is their first true road game and while they have a massive adv run game vs Indiana run D - just looking at the facts - they lost to UCF and were in tough vs Syracuse and yes cuse got a gift late td - but point is - life and death vs 2 good teams they have played...They are 16-0 lifetime vs Indiana which is sick !.....lean to penn st but cant add to full unit card based on what we noted above....Penn St 120th in 3rd d conversions and 100th in t/o margin....no lean on total - adding Indiana in ML wheel mix

    Reply

    fsu 14.5 Maryland (59.5)

    Maryland a juggernaut no doubt - but have a questionable strength of schedule much like FSU - also have lost 6 straight to Noles by avg of 19 ppg.....top 2 corners - at least - 2 of top corners - out for this one and that is a bit of concern vs the Fighting Winstons; FSU D looked a bit suspect LW vs run and allowed 4 TD passes....Have the fair line right here - 10 + 4 for HF - is 14 so don't see a ton of value on Maryland even tho they can win SU - Throw Maryland in ML wheel options - no lean on side - no lean on total both offenses explosive and Ds untested

    Louisville 33 Temple (58)

    Louisville in a definite letdown spot and coming off a 70 point win - spread probably a TD too high but not playing a team with the 120th ranked D vs a super QB and a D not giving up more than 13 yet. no lean on side or total

    Penn St 4 Indiana (62)

    initial lean was hammer penn st but this is their first true road game and while they have a massive adv run game vs Indiana run D - just looking at the facts - they lost to UCF and were in tough vs Syracuse and yes cuse got a gift late td - but point is - life and death vs 2 good teams they have played...They are 16-0 lifetime vs Indiana which is sick !.....lean to penn st but cant add to full unit card based on what we noted above....Penn St 120th in 3rd d conversions and 100th in t/o margin....no lean on total - adding Indiana in ML wheel mix

     
    boltsfan
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    Posted: Oct. 1, 2013 - 2:57 PM ET #28

    GL Mega.

    Hoping Utah line creeps to 6-7. Being from So Cal I hope UCLA wins by 3 as well. We all know what happens on Thurs night football in NCAA. Especially those home dogs.

    Thoughts on the Buckeyes? Can N'western keep pace for 4Qs? I don't think so...
    Reply
    GL Mega.

    Hoping Utah line creeps to 6-7. Being from So Cal I hope UCLA wins by 3 as well. We all know what happens on Thurs night football in NCAA. Especially those home dogs.

    Thoughts on the Buckeyes? Can N'western keep pace for 4Qs? I don't think so...
     
    MEGALOCKS
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    Posted: Oct. 1, 2013 - 3:02 PM ET #29

    Quote Originally Posted by boltsfan:

    GL Mega.

    Hoping Utah line creeps to 6-7. Being from So Cal I hope UCLA wins by 3 as well. We all know what happens on Thurs night football in NCAA. Especially those home dogs.

    Thoughts on the Buckeyes? Can N'western keep pace for 4Qs? I don't think so...

    that is 100% my take  GL

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by boltsfan:

    GL Mega.

    Hoping Utah line creeps to 6-7. Being from So Cal I hope UCLA wins by 3 as well. We all know what happens on Thurs night football in NCAA. Especially those home dogs.

    Thoughts on the Buckeyes? Can N'western keep pace for 4Qs? I don't think so...

    that is 100% my take  GL

     
    IndyHoosier
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    Posted: Oct. 1, 2013 - 4:22 PM ET #30

    Good luck this week, MEGA.


    Reply
    Good luck this week, MEGA.


     
    Wizerguy
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    Posted: Oct. 1, 2013 - 4:24 PM ET #31

    Nice record...gl this week buddy..
    - The storms will come, the storms will pass -
    Reply
    Nice record...gl this week buddy..
     
    Dledien21
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    Posted: Oct. 1, 2013 - 4:33 PM ET #32

    Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

    longhorn  and thanks for the info

    for a guy who doesnt know the QBs - are they about the same in terms of quality - or is McCoy a downgrade? 


    McCoy is a serious downgrade. He doesn't have the Arm nor the Feet that Ash has. They try to dumb down the play calling as well for McCoy. He just isn't even close to the same level as Ash. Lived in Austin for 4 years now. This McCoy got the wrong end of the stick for sure
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

    longhorn  and thanks for the info

    for a guy who doesnt know the QBs - are they about the same in terms of quality - or is McCoy a downgrade? 


    McCoy is a serious downgrade. He doesn't have the Arm nor the Feet that Ash has. They try to dumb down the play calling as well for McCoy. He just isn't even close to the same level as Ash. Lived in Austin for 4 years now. This McCoy got the wrong end of the stick for sure
     
    MEGALOCKS
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    Posted: Oct. 1, 2013 - 4:51 PM ET #33

    Quote Originally Posted by Dledien21:



    McCoy is a serious downgrade. He doesn't have the Arm nor the Feet that Ash has. They try to dumb down the play calling as well for McCoy. He just isn't even close to the same level as Ash. Lived in Austin for 4 years now. This McCoy got the wrong end of the stick for sure
     thx man - definitely putting iowa st in my ML wheel rotation this wk
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by Dledien21:



    McCoy is a serious downgrade. He doesn't have the Arm nor the Feet that Ash has. They try to dumb down the play calling as well for McCoy. He just isn't even close to the same level as Ash. Lived in Austin for 4 years now. This McCoy got the wrong end of the stick for sure
     thx man - definitely putting iowa st in my ML wheel rotation this wk
     
    Dledien21
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    Posted: Oct. 1, 2013 - 4:54 PM ET #34

    BOL Mega

    Here's to continued success


    Reply
    BOL Mega

    Here's to continued success


     
    motowner
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    Posted: Oct. 1, 2013 - 4:56 PM ET #35

    mega, you're truly putting your neck out on the line for utah.

    mega, i'm back from solitary.

    mega, it wasn't fun.

    mega

    Reply
    mega, you're truly putting your neck out on the line for utah.

    mega, i'm back from solitary.

    mega, it wasn't fun.

    mega

     
    TRAIN69
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    Posted: Oct. 1, 2013 - 4:56 PM ET #36

    Texas is gonna smoke the 'Clones

    Waiting eagerly for the AF/Navy total...that games got under written all over it....

     

    MEGA

    Reply

    Texas is gonna smoke the 'Clones

    Waiting eagerly for the AF/Navy total...that games got under written all over it....

     

    MEGA

     
    MEGALOCKS
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    Posted: Oct. 1, 2013 - 4:56 PM ET #37

    Virginia 5 Ball St (48.5)

    have the fair line closer to 1-2 so some perceived value here....Ball has drastically outperformed vegas line so far while Va has underperformed it - mind you - big loss at Oregon can be excused....Here's the thing - leaning ball but Va held a solid pitt off in check and are ranked 4th in pass eff D and 13th in sacks...Lean to Ball but need 7 pts which wont happen - include Ball in priority ML wheel selections but cant endorse as full unit play yet - total VERY sharp imo was hoping for something in 50s crap

    Barfalo 13.5 EM (55)

    EM was in a good spot vs Ball got blown out at home - underperforming even crappy expectations while buff exceeding expectations (not us) despite playing ohio st and Baylor - lean buffalo but never will lay 2 td in MACtion....lean EM TT under

    Reply

    Virginia 5 Ball St (48.5)

    have the fair line closer to 1-2 so some perceived value here....Ball has drastically outperformed vegas line so far while Va has underperformed it - mind you - big loss at Oregon can be excused....Here's the thing - leaning ball but Va held a solid pitt off in check and are ranked 4th in pass eff D and 13th in sacks...Lean to Ball but need 7 pts which wont happen - include Ball in priority ML wheel selections but cant endorse as full unit play yet - total VERY sharp imo was hoping for something in 50s crap

    Barfalo 13.5 EM (55)

    EM was in a good spot vs Ball got blown out at home - underperforming even crappy expectations while buff exceeding expectations (not us) despite playing ohio st and Baylor - lean buffalo but never will lay 2 td in MACtion....lean EM TT under

     
    MEGALOCKS
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    Posted: Oct. 1, 2013 - 4:58 PM ET #38

    Quote Originally Posted by motowner:

    mega, you're truly putting your neck out on the line for utah.

    mega, i'm back from solitary.

    mega, it wasn't fun.

    mega

    welcome back  I hope cell 14 was not too cruel to you ....Ya I know ucla is very good - worst case they blow out Utah and i'm down 1.25% of my bankroll not a big deal  GL this wk

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by motowner:

    mega, you're truly putting your neck out on the line for utah.

    mega, i'm back from solitary.

    mega, it wasn't fun.

    mega

    welcome back  I hope cell 14 was not too cruel to you ....Ya I know ucla is very good - worst case they blow out Utah and i'm down 1.25% of my bankroll not a big deal  GL this wk

     
    MEGALOCKS
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    Posted: Oct. 1, 2013 - 5:00 PM ET #39

    Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

    Texas is gonna smoke the 'Clones

    Waiting eagerly for the AF/Navy total...that games got under written all over it....

     

    MEGA

    I know buddy im hoping they are dumb enough to put a mid 50s total on it given AF pts allowed

    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

    Texas is gonna smoke the 'Clones

    Waiting eagerly for the AF/Navy total...that games got under written all over it....

     

    MEGA

    I know buddy im hoping they are dumb enough to put a mid 50s total on it given AF pts allowed

     
    TRAIN69
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    Posted: Oct. 1, 2013 - 5:50 PM ET #40

    Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

    I know buddy im hoping they are dumb enough to put a mid 50s total on it given AF pts allowed

    55.5 as of now....Think it goes up?

    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

    I know buddy im hoping they are dumb enough to put a mid 50s total on it given AF pts allowed

    55.5 as of now....Think it goes up?

     
    MEGALOCKS
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    Posted: Oct. 1, 2013 - 6:04 PM ET #41


    I see Navy -11 now? QB must be starting. 

    Gonna dig on this one tomorrow am. I imagine total stays around 55 which seems a bit high. Problem. Worst AF D ever. 
    Reply

    I see Navy -11 now? QB must be starting. 

    Gonna dig on this one tomorrow am. I imagine total stays around 55 which seems a bit high. Problem. Worst AF D ever. 
     
    walbanger
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    Posted: Oct. 1, 2013 - 6:12 PM ET #42

    Just wanted to say you have been fantastic this season. You really seem to know your stuff. I wish you the best of luck this weekend.
    Reply
    Just wanted to say you have been fantastic this season. You really seem to know your stuff. I wish you the best of luck this weekend.
     
    MaineRoad
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    Posted: Oct. 1, 2013 - 6:14 PM ET #43

    MEGA.  

    Reply

    MEGA.  

     
    jefff
    jefff
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    Posts: 4024
    Posted: Oct. 1, 2013 - 6:20 PM ET #44

    Texas lost their leading tackler LB Jordan Hicks.  When they lost him last year their dee when from horrid to atrocious.  They also will miss LB Edmond for the first half due to targeting penalty vs KSt.  They will play a RS Fr at LB against ISU

    The Austin paper is telling Ash to walk away from football due to concussions....not sure he'll play this week

    AD Dodds is retiring next year and all the talk is Mack Brown (and likely hoops coach Rick Barnes) will leave their coaching spots too.

    Earl Campbell telling media he thinks Mack should be fired/resign

    Oh and as mentioned, OU is on deck

    Lots of distractions
    Reply
    Texas lost their leading tackler LB Jordan Hicks.  When they lost him last year their dee when from horrid to atrocious.  They also will miss LB Edmond for the first half due to targeting penalty vs KSt.  They will play a RS Fr at LB against ISU

    The Austin paper is telling Ash to walk away from football due to concussions....not sure he'll play this week

    AD Dodds is retiring next year and all the talk is Mack Brown (and likely hoops coach Rick Barnes) will leave their coaching spots too.

    Earl Campbell telling media he thinks Mack should be fired/resign

    Oh and as mentioned, OU is on deck

    Lots of distractions
     
    MEGALOCKS
    MEGALOCKS
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    Posts: 18138
    Posted: Oct. 1, 2013 - 6:50 PM ET #45

    Quote Originally Posted by walbanger:

    Just wanted to say you have been fantastic this season. You really seem to know your stuff. I wish you the best of luck this weekend.

    Thx man. Appreciate it. GL to you
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by walbanger:

    Just wanted to say you have been fantastic this season. You really seem to know your stuff. I wish you the best of luck this weekend.

    Thx man. Appreciate it. GL to you
     
    MEGALOCKS
    MEGALOCKS
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    Posts: 18138
    Posted: Oct. 1, 2013 - 6:52 PM ET #46

    Maine. 

    Jefff  Great stuff. Love to see that kind of stuff. We all benefit when guys share in depth knowledge. 
    Reply
    Maine. 

    Jefff  Great stuff. Love to see that kind of stuff. We all benefit when guys share in depth knowledge. 
     
    graymatter
    graymatter
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    Posts: 82
    Posted: Oct. 1, 2013 - 6:58 PM ET #47

    Mega like your analysis on the VA/Ball St, many on Ball this week. After watching Ball get out to a big lead in the first half at North Texas and give the game away in the second half due to NT's aggressive D, I too have my doubts that Ball can keep this inside a td. I have the game capped at 4, local offering 5.5 - actually starting to lean toward Va.  
    Reply
    Mega like your analysis on the VA/Ball St, many on Ball this week. After watching Ball get out to a big lead in the first half at North Texas and give the game away in the second half due to NT's aggressive D, I too have my doubts that Ball can keep this inside a td. I have the game capped at 4, local offering 5.5 - actually starting to lean toward Va.  
     
    Basstard
    Basstard
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    Posts: 93
    Posted: Oct. 1, 2013 - 7:29 PM ET #48

    Mega..good handicapping

    Can't wait to hear your take on T. Tech -18 @ Kansas

    Mayfield will start after much needed bye week to heal dings.Limited mistakes by him and I  like Tech to cover up to 21. Seem to play well against the Cyclones.

    Not really sure how good Tech is yet, but I suspicion may be slightly underrated even tho sittin at #20 In AP. Means nothing in the world of chance.  
    Reply
    Mega..good handicapping

    Can't wait to hear your take on T. Tech -18 @ Kansas

    Mayfield will start after much needed bye week to heal dings.Limited mistakes by him and I  like Tech to cover up to 21. Seem to play well against the Cyclones.

    Not really sure how good Tech is yet, but I suspicion may be slightly underrated even tho sittin at #20 In AP. Means nothing in the world of chance.  
     
    graymatter
    graymatter
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    Posts: 82
    Posted: Oct. 1, 2013 - 7:37 PM ET #49

    kansas played their best game of the year against tech last yr- think that may carry some weight in this one- interested to see megas thoughts as i lean kansas here
    Reply
    kansas played their best game of the year against tech last yr- think that may carry some weight in this one- interested to see megas thoughts as i lean kansas here
     
     
    MEGALOCKS
    MEGALOCKS
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    Posted: Oct. 1, 2013 - 7:38 PM ET #50

    Quote Originally Posted by graymatter:

    Mega like your analysis on the VA/Ball St, many on Ball this week. After watching Ball get out to a big lead in the first half at North Texas and give the game away in the second half due to NT's aggressive D, I too have my doubts that Ball can keep this inside a td. I have the game capped at 4, local offering 5.5 - actually starting to lean toward Va.  


    Ya I have read quite a bit on VA.  Seems they are switching up a lot of starters on offense and WR jobs up for grabs dropped 10+ passes last wk. could give them a spark. Their D is legit. Ball still going in my ML wheel tho since that is just small $ to win big $. GL 
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by graymatter:

    Mega like your analysis on the VA/Ball St, many on Ball this week. After watching Ball get out to a big lead in the first half at North Texas and give the game away in the second half due to NT's aggressive D, I too have my doubts that Ball can keep this inside a td. I have the game capped at 4, local offering 5.5 - actually starting to lean toward Va.  


    Ya I have read quite a bit on VA.  Seems they are switching up a lot of starters on offense and WR jobs up for grabs dropped 10+ passes last wk. could give them a spark. Their D is legit. Ball still going in my ML wheel tho since that is just small $ to win big $. GL 
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