NCAA wk 6

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Freaks wk 1 7-2wk 2 1-2wk 3 4-0wk 4 4-1wk 5 3-1ytd 19-6Good run so far but means nothing as the conference games kick in and a lot of teams that have not looked very good will find their second wind. Other teams will change form &#x2B; and - and make you shake your head. Let&#x27;s try and stay on top of this boys As always..will be posting random thoughts on the games as they are looked at with the hope of getting feedback on where we have it right or wrong - especially wrong - always good to know what you might be missing.Let&#x27;s roll texas 8.5 iowa stwe have the fair line at 6 so a bit of perceived value in iowa st - the problem with this game is that the variance in what we can expect from texas - low to high - is so wide that to put a "fair" line on this is really tough...We do know tex has okla on deck but are 3-2L5 yrs in that situation....they are off a bye...Ash is still questionable at QB....Their D has had moments of complete ineptitude...turnover margin ranked 13th...iowa st has a nice dual threat qb...statistically pretty avg on offense and d and hung with a decent iowa team...12th in t/o margin...only played 3 games...slight lean to iowa st....will include in ML wheel options but will need 10&#x2B; to add to the card full unit plays prob wont happen....wait for nowmega

MEGALOCKS · Answer

Freaks wk 1 7-2wk 2 1-2wk 3 4-0wk 4 4-1wk 5 3-1ytd 19-6Good run so far but means nothing as the conference games kick in and a lot of teams that have not looked very good will find their second wind. Other teams will change form &#x2B; and - and make you shake your head. Let&#x27;s try and stay on top of this boys As always..will be posting random thoughts on the games as they are looked at with the hope of getting feedback on where we have it right or wrong - especially wrong - always good to know what you might be missing.Let&#x27;s roll texas 8.5 iowa stwe have the fair line at 6 so a bit of perceived value in iowa st - the problem with this game is that the variance in what we can expect from texas - low to high - is so wide that to put a "fair" line on this is really tough...We do know tex has okla on deck but are 3-2L5 yrs in that situation....they are off a bye...Ash is still questionable at QB....Their D has had moments of complete ineptitude...turnover margin ranked 13th...iowa st has a nice dual threat qb...statistically pretty avg on offense and d and hung with a decent iowa team...12th in t/o margin...only played 3 games...slight lean to iowa st....will include in ML wheel options but will need 10&#x2B; to add to the card full unit plays prob wont happen....wait for nowmega

MEGALOCKS · Answer

wku 5.5 ulm

ok so we know SB off POY Browning QB for ulm out for yr - was wondering wtf was going on and now we know he was playing hurt....watched a video clip of ulm HC and he said its a competition now between B Brown who has had a few snaps and FR Williams....not sure how good or bad they really are - yes blown out by tulane but also played baylor and sooners so stats look bad cant play them - wk had the fair line at 2.5/3 before injury news...they have the ncaa leading rusher and a decent passing game when not turning it over every 2nd pass....D ranked 34th overall....both teams ranked 121st in t/o margin.....last 4 games between these 2 teams decided by 1,3,5,3 points...jeeez...lean to wku but dont see value in playing them anywhere near a td....ulm could get a spark with a new qb and they have underperformed the vegas line by approx 70 points so far which is among the worst so at some point it snaps back. just a lean wku for now.

utah st 6.5 byu

leaned byu initially but just like we leaned sj st last wk - just will not pee into the wind and play byu after digging deeper...utah st will not give the game away qb 17-1 td/int...strong D - and OL...22nd in t/o margin while byu is #118....BYU essentially one dimensional even if hoffman comes back this wk - williams their top rb still Q but think he plays.....byu has a strong ats record road - utah st good ats at home....3 byu off linemen on inj report this wk.....last 2 yrs byu won by 3 points...can see a close game but no lean here at all on side....VERY interested in the total when it comes out with a view to the under 2 strong Ds in a heated game....6-3 LY

LonghornHoosier · Answer

mega - I have heard that Ash did not practice last week. I perceive that he will not play against Iowa St, but may play for OU. I personally think you will see Case McCoy trot out against Iowa St.

your take is right on. The variability is very high. Texas could blow them out (should based on talent) or fight to win.

I don't believe this is a very good iowa st team.

its a no play for me, but I think Texas TCB wins and covers...

MEGALOCKS · Answer

longhorn  and thanks for the infofor a guy who doesnt know the QBs - are they about the same in terms of quality - or is McCoy a downgrade?

WahooS · Answer

may you bury the book yet again MegaHot Carl left his pager at the police station, you may have a tough time contacting him this week

MEGALOCKS · Answer

BuddyHot Carl dabbles in goat porn distribution. Gets locked up from time to time. Thankfully he has a backup pager in his pooper.

Noonkid · Answer

Best of luck this week Mega Any good spots for a good underdog ML parlay???

mzoufan · Answer

There&#x27;s always the old school way ....  Paging Mr. Carl .... Mr Hot Carl ....SPECIAL from Mr. Hot Carl

graymatter · Answer

Mega,  aweseome thread , im new to the board just some thgts on Byu,.. I see Byu as a major upgrade to Sjst, while I&#39;ve rode Utst the last 2 weeks, feel that the number shouldn&#39;t be more than 3, Utst been in the spotlight last 2 weeks, still without a quality win, they may get it here but not by a td

MEGALOCKS · Answer

GuysNoon kid - will mention my adds as we go. Started 2/2 last wk with VT and Iowa st then 1/8 after that......never fails somebody on Twitter asks for ML dogs and I give a basket of losers   Rest assured we lost on them tooMzoufan. Gray matter thx man. Agree with your BYU take. I have always liked BYU as a dog. This Utah st team is just an animal. GL

The_BigDog · Answer

MEGA, glad I am not your book

HotRoute · Answer

GL this week MEGA...stay hot

ParlaySucker · Answer

BOL this week Mega.  Keep killin it

tideman · Answer

goat porn   &#xD;&#xA;Best of luck big guy ,

MEGALOCKS · Answer

First play&#xD;&#xA;will not be popular &#xD;&#xA;Utah &#x2B;4&#xD;&#xA;First let&#x27;s start with what could go wrong? Well if UCLA is THAT good - we are toast. Can live with that. Not a biggie.&#xD;&#xA;What do we see? Keeping in mind this is in the context of UCLA laying 4.&#xD;&#xA;UCLA - its not their fault mind you - but they have played defenses ranked 113 107 and 123 in total yards....We really like the team - just saying...Hundley is a stud at QB...No doubt - but seriously they have faced no resistance so far....And don&#x27;t forget how they looked first H vs Huskers travel and fallen teammate notwithstanding....They traditionally have a hard time playing four quarters and Utah is scrappy enough to take advantage in a close game.....UCLA ranked 99th in turnover margin and 121st in penalties/game...uh oh...So they are a statistical monster for sure - and pretty ESPN highlights no doubt like Fresno St - but are untested....Utah has a win over BYU and Utah St - we call those quality wins....3 pt loss to freakshow Oregon St - another tough one.......Get this - the offenses they have played include those ranked 21 24 26....Defenses they have played include those ranked 22 23 71.....Very balanced on offense - QB is a duel threat not unlike Hundley....64% 9.7/attempt and 9 td/3int....251 rushing and 5 td almost 8/att....Utah faced a good running qb vs BYU held him to 20-99 att and less than 50% passing....Last yr 21-14 at ucla 2yago 31-6....Utah is always dangerous when they have a qb - and after a yr and a bit of disgusting filth - have someone grown up and a MAN &#xD;&#xA;GL freaks

MEGALOCKS · Answer

thx a lot guys  much appreciated

HotRoute · Answer

Very sharp...like that Utah play...I would expect nothing less from MEGA

MEGALOCKS · Answer

Hot routethx bud!

Skipster · Answer

hope your wrong about my baby blues

Skipster · Answer

should read you&#x27;re, of course.  migraine misspellings, my specialty.

WahooS · Answer

On my radar if line goes a smidge higherthinking ucla backers will push it up a bit by Thursday

Feenfromeugene · Answer

Love it mega. Much respect

SoonerAction · Answer

Mega, great analysis as usual.  I really like the Bruins this week but you make good points for the Utes.  If you have time, what are your thoughts on these games:Clemson 13.5 Syracuse  Can&#x27;t see the Orange keeping this close.Illinois &#x2B;10 Nebraska  No way Huskers should be giving double digits to a very good opponent like this.NC St 9 Wake Forest  Wolfpack looking strong and peaking.LSU 9.5 Miss St  Bulldogs have an average offense that won&#x27;t go anywhere against the Tigers.Minn &#x2B;20 Michigan  Just can&#x27;t trust the Wolverines to cover the big number.  Example UConn and Akron.Texas St &#x2B;10 LA Lafayette  Why are the Cajuns giving so many?Thanks for any input.

MEGALOCKS · Answer

guys&#xD;&#xA;wahoo - ya debated waiting for line to move up for Utah but 5 a dead number - 6 isn&#x27;t a big deal - more worried about 3 even tho I think its 90% it never gets there - just playing safe&#xD;&#xA;skip - like ucla a lot - just hope they win by 3&#xD;&#xA;sooner - will give thoughts on those games as I go thru them this wk - have not looked at them in detail yet don&#x27;t wanna give a superficial opinion - first glance don&#x27;t disagree with any&#xD;&#xA;More games &#xD;&#xA;SD St 4.5 Nevada (55)&#xD;&#xA;Nev QB Fajardo got healthy last wk and threw for 380 and 3 td - ran for 80 and 2 more scores...blown out by fla st and ucla so stats are skewed.....just cant trust a team with 120th run D and 113th total D on the road - will throw in ML wheel options tho...SD St probably better and also played 2 tough ones in Oregon st and ohio st.....118th in t/o margin....no lean on total&#xD;&#xA;Navy (off) pk? A Force&#xD;&#xA;Not gonna play this one with AF 2nd or 3rd string QB playing and a wretched D....Navy starting QB is Q and also leading rusher by far no idea what to make of this one - but if Navy QB healthy would have a strong lean to Navy at 3 or less based on AF is a mess and Navy 12-2L14 vs AF ATS. not interested in total no matter what its posted at&#xD;&#xA;more to come.....

NCAA wk 6

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