USFL plays 2023

Recap: 1-1

Record: 14-12, +$173

Goal #1 achieved: "Primum non nocere" (First, do no harm) - to my bankroll.

Since 98% of bettors lose (except on the internet, where almost everyone "wins," many of them hitting 80% or better!) your first goal for any sport, any season, should be - Do not join the 98%. Any profit is a solid profit.

With just three games remaining, I can use a unit of $55/50 on each game for some fun in the playoffs and am guaranteed to finish with a small profit even if I go 0-3.

Posting earlier than I usually do because I want to get in a bet before the line moves against me.

The NO/Birm game. At QB? McGough over Bethel-Thompson seven days a week and twice on Sunday.

For game planning and in-game adjustments? Holtz over DeFilippo.

Better offense? Birmingham.

Defense? Equal, no edge.

Similar to last year: 2022 Birm O scored approx 40 pts more on the season than NO; 50 pt differential this season. LY Birm D gave up 5 pts more than NO, this year 12 pts. When they met in the division final, Birm won easily 31-17. 

They split their two games this season, but the Birm loss was way back in week three, in a game where McGough got hurt in the 2nd Q and had to leave the game. He came back but was ineffective, tossing an interception as soon as he reentered. The real reason for the loss was the D, who gave up 45 pts. Birmingham made the adjustments and only gave up 20 in the week eight 24-20 victory.

As I've watched their recent play, Birm seems to be the more complete team and I expect this will be -3 by game day so I'm buying now. I expect the total to go up also, so, buying that too as I like it to go Over.

Buys:

Birm -2' -120

NO/Birm Ov 44'

May I ask what site lets you buy a point? I am on seven different sites and all throughout the season not able to buy points or other certain type of wagers.

A few items to address before I get to my standard recap and record update that I begin every post with.

Timealker, (is that missing a "w" in the middle? A "t?" An "st??!!")

First, and most important - THANK YOU for your service. (My nephew is currently at sea.)

Second, sorry I did not reply sooner, didn't see your question until late Sunday evening, and was unable to reply at that time.

Next, to answer your question - I didn't buy a half pt. For all of the ten weeks of the reg season I posted my plays here on game day, Sat or Sun. Last week I did my handicapping on Tuesday morning, then checked the opening lines. I believed the NO/Birm game was the wrong # at -2' (I was a sports book Director and odds maker in Vegas for years, making lines, not just copying what LVSC sent out like 98% of houses do. I know a bad # when I see it.) I jumped on the opening -2' (correction on mistake when I posted: I got it at -130, not -120) because I was sure it was going to go up. I stopped by here Tuesday afternoon to post an early buy notice to anyone who might be looking at the game, or for my pick on it. My on-line outs do not allow any line adjustments on USFL, as it is with most houses as you noted.

Finally - thank you for stopping by. Hope you did well on the game.

Recap: 2-0, +$100

Record: 16-12, +$273

Tuesday's early buy notice on both plays was the right move as by Sunday the side closed at -3' and the total at 45. Neither affected the outcome, but it's still good practice to buy at the right time as it does sometimes matter.

From Tuesday's analysis:

"The NO/Birm game. At QB? McGough over Bethel-Thompson seven days a week and twice on Sunday. For game planning and in-game adjustments? Holtz over DeFilippo. As I've watched their recent play, Birm seems to be the more complete team."

Anyone who watched the game yesterday saw what I meant.

Next up: Pit/Birm

I made Birm -7, it came out at -6, which I believe will bring in Birmingham money and force the # higher. I lean towards an outcome like yesterday's game (AGAIN the announcers expressed astonishment at Pit HC Horton's decision-making, this time in regards to letting about 40 seconds run off the game clock on second down, right before halftime, and settling for a FG when he could have taken a shot at a TD.) I probably won't stop back in on Saturday to recommend a buy on another Birm blowout, but gut feel, Horton and his QB are way out of their depth in this game.

I have no feel for the total of 46.

If they offer props I may look at "Sternberger to score a TD" hoping for a decent price for "Yes."

I spent most of the season playing Fades as outlined in post #1. Had I faded all plays, I would have gone 18-24 for a loss of $840. Yikes! So that theory sucked. But I did okay picking which games to Fade and which to lay off. Late in the season, when I got a feel for the teams, I dropped the fades and I made my own plays, going 5-2 on those.

So this is where it likely ends for me. I'll bank the profit and call it W for the season. I already achieved my goals: caused no damage to my bankroll, made some profit, shared some opinions, outlined some money management strategy, and most important- I had a lot of fun.

Good luck to all on your championship game play.