USFL plays 2023

An experiment for the USFL season.

Most sports betters lose.

Most betters who lose look to tail someone they think can win. This is wrong think, for a couple of reasons.

Since most bettors lose it would be easier to find someone who loses - to fade. The trick is to find someone who loses enough so that you hit 53% or >.

It's difficult to beat a sport when you know the players and stats. It's even more difficult when you don't know much about the league, the players, and the stats, like me with the USFL. I think one way to win is to find anyone who thinks they know how to win but really doesn't, and fade them. I'm going to put this theory to the test.

Small bets, just for some fun, action, and to test the theory. There will be ups and downs throughout the season, I just need a few more ups to gain a slight edge before it's over.

Buys:

Birm -5'

Mem +3

Recap: Memphis lost by 4, getting 3. Birmingham picked up where they left off in last year's championship game - they made the correct adjustments at halftime and kick button the second half getting me a win.

Before I decided to take the lazy/easy we out for playing this USFL season (see post above) I began to make notes in my log book to help make my own picks, just like I do with other football and basketball seasons. And note number one said this:

1) Try to avoid betting on Memphis because . . . Todd Haley. I don't know why this guy keeps getting jobs but I do know why he keeps getting fired. Can't really blame him for yesterday's loss so that we did show the same lack of imagination in play calling. I missed field gold and especially the missed extra point screwed me.

Record: 1-1, -$10 (I'll use a standard $100 betting unit here to keep things simple.)

Today I have a play on Houston over 38 (no feel one way or another for that one) and Pit +4'. I didn't buy these lines yesterday cuz I saw the lines moving in my favor and ended up getting a better number on both spots. Not crazy about the Pit play, they were the worst in the league last year but at least they are no longer burdened by ex-head coach Kirby Wilson who was so bad he actually made Todd Haley look like Andy Reid.

Buys:

Hou Ov 38

Pit +4' -107

Autocorrect on making verbal posts is killing me:

"Kicked ass in" became "kick button??!!"

"Way out" became "we out??!!"

"Though he did show" became "that we did show?"

"A missed field goal" became "I missed field gold?"

I have to watch my accent when speaking into the phone for these things! (And a little extra edit time wouldn't hurt either.)

With the Over hitting this morning I'm going to buy off the late game to ensure a profit in week one. Not something I usually do but I don't know much about this league so any week I can lock up a profit I'm going to grab it.

Bad move not waiting to buy the fourth game, it's going to cost me juice and a possible Polish middle as the number is now at -6, but I think it's the right thing to do.

Buys:

NO -6

Recap: 2-1, hit with NO -6 & Ov 38 in Hou, missed with Pit +4'.

Play record: 2-2, -$17; Favs 1-0, Dogs 0-2, Ov 1-0, Un 0-0

My record 3-2, +$83; Favs 2-0, Dogs 0-2, Ov 1-0, Un 0-0

Buying off Philly in the final game to lock up a profit turned out to be the right move as NO covered, taking me from what would have been a 2-2, -$17 week to a 3-2 +$83, a pot swing of $100.

This week's plays: Hou +5', Birm -7, Pit +3, Mich/Phil Un 43

Not buying Hou today, will wait until tomorrow hoping the # goes up.

Pitt already up from +3 to +5, I'll wait to make a decision there, same with Un 43 in Phil, already up to 46' so no buy there either.

I don't like the Pitt play at all. I know this sounds impossible but new HC Horton is worse than LY's HC Wilson. It's not uncommon for announcers to second guess a HC's play calls but on at least three occasions the announcers in the Pitt game all but called Horton clueless. Ex: late 1st half, NO has the ball deep in their own territory. Pit has all three time outs but he doesn't use one after the 2nd down play goes for no gain, making it 3rd and long. Then, with just 4 seconds before the 2 minute warning and just 3 seconds left on the play clock he finally calls a timeout! The announcers were almost laughing at him by that point, after wasting away the entire play clock he should have just waited for the 2 minute warning. He showed no imagination on play calling. His game situation and time management "skills" were so bad it's as if he never even watched a football game before. Both of their TD's came from the defense, the offense is as inept as the play calling. Not looking forward to buying them with ANY points.

Buys:

Birm -7

Waiting to buy Houston +5' was the right thing to do, picked up two full points there, got over a TD now. Lost half of a point by buying Birmingham at -7, you can get them at -6' currently.

Buys:

Hou +7'

Birm -7

Recap: 2-0

Waiting to buy Houston when they were +5' on Friday was a good move that turned into a great move when they lost by 7 and I got +7' on Saturday morning. (For record keeping accuracy, this counts as a loss on the Plays record because it called for +5', but a win on my record because I waited to buy it and got 7'.)

After banking the early game, I was in a good position for the second game because I had Birmingham -7 against the Todd Haley's. Final score Birm 42 Haley 2.

Play record: 3-3, - $27 

My record:  5-2, +$283

Favs 3-0, Dogs 1-2, Ov 1-0, Un 0-0

Two spots left this week, Pit and Un in the Mich/Phil game. Pittsburgh is already up to +7 from the opening +3, Mich/Phil total still at 46' .

Only three possible outcomes if I play today's games: 2-0, 1-1, 0-2. Two of the three will be a negative hit on my bankroll. And even though Pittsburgh has gone from getting a FG to getting a TD it's still not enough for me to want to play them after watching how bad head coach Horton and his team were last week.

No buys for me today, I'm banking the two units from yesterday. Money management tip - when sports betting, don't just toss bets out there without an accounting structure, treat it like a business - work in weekly (or monthly) increments, with the goal being to always finish the week with a profit whenever you can.

Good luck with your plays today...

Recap: 2-0 last week.

After hitting both Saturday plays I opted to bank the profit and not give any back on Sunday's two spots. My main reason for taking Sunday off was, as posted: "Even though Pittsburgh has gone from getting a FG to getting a TD it's still not enough for me to want to play them after watching how bad head coach Horton and his team were last week." They lost 20-3.

The Phil/Mich spot won as they stayed Under 43, so it was a good move taking Sunday off as I would have lost a little juice. (A better move would have been to follow my gut and bet against Pit getting +7, eh?)

Play record: 4-4, - $37

My record: 5-2, +$283

Okay so far, off to a decent start. The play is a losing proposition thus far, at 4-4, but based on its past track record I expect it to drop. I have a profit from picking my spots, when to jump in and when to drop out, so I'm in good shape after two weeks of buys.

This week's plays:

NO/Birm Ov 48', Hou -3, Pit +6', NJ/Mich Ov 43'

Those are the numbers posted on the plays, some have moved.

First up is NO/Birm Ov 48'. He's 0-2 on totals, Ov 0-1, Un 0-1. I'm buying that one.

Second game on the slate is Hou/Mem. I like playing AGAINST Memphis but the line has moved against me on this one. I have to 'cap these earlier in the week so I can take advantage of better lines when the situation calls for it. Could have laid a field goal on this one, now it's a point and a half above that. I'll wait to make a call on it.

Sunday morning's first game calls for a play on Pittsburgh and you know I don't like that one at any number; pass. I like the final game of the weekend, and the lines moving in my favor, down to 42' right now so no sense buying that one until tomorrow.

One buy for now, hope it hits so I don't have to make a decision on the second game later this afternoon. Will update here if I do buy it.

Buys:

NO/Birm Ov 48'

If I buy the other play today, or either of the two plays tomorrow, I'll post the game and the number I got, well in advance of kickoff. But for right now, it's halftime, NO/Birm tied 24-24, and one of the main betting superstitions says you're really not supposed to do this, but...

Chicken number one . . .

Chicken number two . . .

Chicken number three . . .

Chicken number four . . .

Recap: 1-0, got a W with NO/Birm Ov 48

In the early game on Saturday, with the score tied 24-24 at halftime, I was counting my chickens before they hatched. By game's end they combined for 76 points. Easy one there.

Next up was the Mem/Hou game. I stayed off it because the line moved against me 1' pts. Do I always stay off a game because I didn't get the best line? No, just sometimes. But because this 1' took me from -3 to -4', it means I had to lay more than a field goal so I decided to pass. Good move because Houston won by 4 points and I would have taken a loss.

Early game Sunday was Pittsburgh and I stayed off it because, basically, they suck. They actually won SU so I cost myself a unit there but that's okay, they still suck. They settled for four straight field goals, and, like the week before, and if you watched the game you heard the announcers outright laugh at the play calling by their head coach.

Up one unit from the Saturday game, I was planning on letting it ride on the last play of the week, NJ/Mich Ov. But the play was 2-1 for the week. It was 2-2 week one, and then 2-2 week two, so I thought it was more likely to go 2-2 again than 3-1, so I played it tight, didn't bet. A simple strategy. And . . . the game stayed Un so a good move there.

Play record: 6-6, - $57

My record: 6-2, +$383

This week's plays:

Hou/Phil Un 44', Mich -6', NJ m/l +123, Birm/Pit Ov 43

First up is Hou/Phil Un; line is up to 46' now so it moved in my favor. Houston game last week saw 56 points scored, and although Philly only put up 13 in their game they're a much better offense than that. I think I've hit the early game on Saturday all three weeks so far, I'd rather keep it banked rather than push my luck and try for four straight. If anyone is looking at this game Un, wait, it's at 46' -120 and it'll probably hit 47 by game time.

Next up is Michigan, which means I get to bet against Todd Haley if I buy it. I'll buy it.

Buys:

Mich -6'

Recap: Took a loss on Mich.

Haley was 0-3 this season, and I think 1-7 in his last eight games, but he came up with a W yesterday. Both Memphis and Pittsburgh off of wins - the world's turned upside down!

My record: 6-3, +273

Fade Boy is 2-0 this week. Based on his losing record, odds are against him going 4-0. Or will it be a hot week for him?

I'll play the first game but not the money line, I'll take the points. If it wins I'll bank it and likely take the second game off to recoup the unit dropped yesterday. If it loses I'll likely buy the late game, will post up if I do.

Buys:

NJ +2

Recap: 0-2

My record: 6-4, +163

Good call laying off the early game on Saturday, would have been a loser.

Next game, I laid the points with Michigan, who lost straight up to the Todd Haley's, so that pick sucked.

In the next game I took the two points with New Jersey and the rat bastards lost by three, setting me up for my worst decision of the week in the final game on Sunday. Fade Boy was 3-0 on the week. After going 2-2 in each of the previous three weeks, and sucking all of last year, the odds of him going 3-1 are much better than him going 4-0, a good spot to fade right? But the play calls for an Over in a game with Pittsburgh, who has trouble finding the end zone. After watching them kick four straight field goals in their last game I decided I'm not taking an Over with them. Thought it was the right move when they kicked four straight field goals AGAIN. But...

The number was 43'. After just 22 scored in the first three quarters they would need 21' in the fourth quarter alone for the game to go Over. That means three touchdowns, including a pick 6 or kickoff return for a TD, AND a two-point conversion to go Over, so not buying the total Over looked smart, right?  WRONG!!! They score one touchdown. They score another AND go for the two-point conversion AND make it. And then the kickoff was returned for a touchdown.

The total was 43', it lands on 44.

Ugh.

This week's spots:

Mich -3', Hou Un 48, Phil +6', NO -7

Two lines have moved against me, Hou is currently at 46', and NO is -7'. Philly is +7, so I picked up a half point there if I buy that one. 

Pittsburgh has played okay the last two weeks but they still suck. Michigan screwed me last week but I'll give them another chance in a bounce back spot vs a lousy opponent.

Buys:

Mich -3'

Missed with Michigan this morning. Not part of the fade situation I've been using, but I'm adding a second half play in the second game, based on team stats and gut feel after watching the first half.

My record: 6-5, +$63

Buys:

Hou/Birm 2nd half Ov 23'

Recap: 1-1

Record: 7-5, +$153 (correction - last post said (+$63 should have said +$53)

Missed with my first pick last week. For my second pick I went away from the play that I've been using for the first time this season, used a pick of my own, got a W with the second half Over 23' in Hou/Birm as they put up 30 points.

Don't have my log book with me to update the play record, and I'm too short on time to do an extended analysis write up/thought process, here's this week's plays:

Pit m/l -150, Birm/Mich Ov 44', Phil +7, NJ -1'.

As always those are the plays, I'm not buying all of them. Two lines have moved against me on the opening numbers above. NO is now -7', and a big move on NJ, now -5'.

First game up is an ugly contest with two teams that I'd prefer to bet against. Pittsburgh seems to have turned it around this season and is playing well but I'm still not laying -150 on them. 

One buy for now.

Buys:

Birm/Mich Ov 44'

Recap: 0-1

Got tagged with a loss as the Birm/Mich game landed on 40.

Record: 7-6, +$43

week 6 and teams should be showing some improvement but it seems more like they're regressing. Pittsburgh went back to stinking yesterday putting up a zero as a favorite. Saw some really bad coaching, example: right before halftime a coach sends his kicker in for a 60 yarder when his longest for the season is a 50 yarder. he doesn't come close of course and the opponent runs it back for a TD.

Worst plate was in I think it was Michigan right before half Michigan is losing, no timeouts that about the 20 yard line 7 seconds left on the clock and ticking quarterback gets under center at 4 seconds left. You spike it right? Get your field goal unit in, right? No. he takes the ball from the center shuffles three features the right gets tackled time runs out. Tell us the head coach he thought someone said in his headphone microphone "Don't spike it." Didn't have enough sense to snap it anyway. Pitiful.

Two spots to choose from today, Phil +8 and NJ -5'.

It's not part of the Fade Play that I've been using but I really liked the NJ/Hou game to go over 45 but didn't buy it yesterday and it's up a full FG to 48 today so on principal alone I'm not buying a game where I missed out on the best number, especially when it's a 3-point differential.

There's a chance I might get a hook added to the Philadelphia total, it's already up to +8 from the opening line of +7, so wait on that one for a little bit.

Buys:

Phil (wait until game time to buy)

NJ -5'

Recap: 1-0

Banked a W with Philly. 

Record: 8-6, +$143

Strategy time. I got back the unit I lost yesterday. 1-1 for the week now. I have one play open, NJ -5'. So, take Houston and surrender the juice to guarantee +$133, no damage on the week? Or, let the play stand?

If it was the final week of the season I'd probably surrender minor juice for the week and lock up the profit.

If I was playing for a normal, larger dollar amount per unit I'd likely buy off NJ and keep the profit.

If it was a sport/league that I know little about - like this one - I'd lock up the profit. (I should, anyway.)

If the line was at -7 I'd take the dog and hope for a middle.

But . . . It's not the last week of the season. And the line hasn't moved, so no chance for a middle.

Deciding factor - even if I lose the late game I'll still be on the plus side of the ledger. After six weeks of a ten week season that's not a bad place to be going into the final four weeks of a league I don't know that well. Plus, I got into this for some fun and some action, not to make a living, so . . . "Ride, ride, ride, let it ride."

Recap: 0-1

Record: 8-7, +$33

Bad call not buying off the NJ game. Garden State? More like Loser State as they lost SU as 5' pt Favs. 

Left my log book in my office AGAIN, so I'm 'capping all sports this 3-day weekend without my charts and stats. Ugh.

Today's plays:

Birm Ov 45', Phil +1, Hou -3, Mich +6'.

I'm still on the house dime, barely, but after 6 weeks I'm in an okay position to try and close out these next four with a profit.

Starting the weekend by buying both games today. I'm also buying the Houston line early because I think it'll move against me before tomorrow. Will likely buy Michigan too but that line is moving in my favor so let's wait and see.

Buys:

Birm Ov 45'

Phil +1

Hou -3

Recap: 1-1, hit with Philly, missed with the Over

Record: 9-8, +$23

Houston losing to Memphis right now, down by three points. If that holds, I'm in the same situation as last week: missed the early Saturday game, came back and won the late game. That left me with the decision Sunday morning - keep my play or buy off and lose the juice to stay in the black? And like last week, I chose to stay with the morning game.

Last week, when the morning game lost, I stayed off the afternoon game on Sunday and it won, costing me a unit. Not going with that strategy this week, I'm buying the Sunday late game. Looks to be a defensive battle so I'll take the points at just over a TD.

Buys:

Mich +7'

Recap: 1-1, -$10

Record: 10-9, +$13

Houston pulled ahead with about a minute left in the game, look like it was going to be a winner, but . . . no. Not laying off the late game Sunday, like I did last week, turned out to be a good move as Michigan won.

The experiment for this season, the writer I've been fading as explained in post number one, is at 16-12, which means had I faded all his plays as intended I'd be down about -560, so in comparison my measly +$13 doesn't look so bad. Picking and choosing which spots to fade, as well as mixing in a play or two of my own has me in position to finish with a profit with just three weeks left in the season. After two straight losing seasons I expect he'll finish this year with a losing record this season also, so, since I don't know much about this league and the players I'll continue the same strategy and fade away.

This week's plays:

Pit+3, Birm -6, NJ m/l, Mich/NO U 43'.

Okay, the week starts off ugly with him on Houston because that means I have to take Pittsburgh, who are so bad it's painful to watch. But, it seems like every other writer I looked at during the week is all over Houston too, which makes me feel a little better about having to take Pit. Plus, Pittsburgh is eliminated for the playoffs with a loss so I'm guaranteed to at least get a good effort from a lousy team (if that sounds like I'm trying to convince myself it's okay to take an ugly team it's because that's exactly what I'm doing. Holding my nose but I'll buy Pittsburgh.)

In the second game today I already missed out on the best line as Birmingham is now -7, so I'll wait on making a decision to buy that one or not.

The New Jersey line is going to move against me so I'll buy that one today, point spread though not money line as the number is -2 which means if they win only -1 can screw me. 

Michigan game dropped by a hook, I'll wait on making the decision there too.

May add some second half plays depending on what I see in the first half today.

Good luck with your plays...

Buys:

Pit +3

NJ -2

Recap: 1-1, -$10

Record: 11-10, +$3

My bankroll is like a capybara trying to cross the Amazon river. I was healthy until about the halfway point, now I'm surrounded by piranha that are darting in and out, taking chunks out of me. Will I make it to the other shore alive?

This weeks spots:

Pit +2, NO/Mem Un 43', Birm -3', Phil -2'

Two weeks left until the end of the season (or, until I reach the other side to continue the capybara metaphor.) Using the fade play has kept me alive, but barely. I started out the season not knowing much about any of these teams but have been watching and gaining a little bit of knowledge, so this week I'm just going to pick the games that I like, some fades, some not.

First up - no way I'm using Pittsburgh. The line is down to Mich -1 on that one, I'm going with the Un and hope Pittsburgh continues to fail to score TD's and keeps settling for FG's.

In the second game I'm taking New Orleans. The Todd Haley's have been playing way over their head thanks to decent quarterback play but it's still Haley at head coach and he's way overdue to revert back to a bone-headed pumpkin.

Buys:

Mich/Pit Un 41

NO pk

Recap: 1-0, +$100

Record: 12-10, +$103

Okay, morning game is in with a W on Un Mich/Pit. Same decision as I've had before - buy off the late game, surrender some juice and lock up a profit for the day, or let the late game play stand?

If this was next week, last week of the season, I might buy off to lock up a profit for the regular season, any profit is better than a loss. But it's not the last week of the season, these are just small money bets anyway, doing this for fun and action, so ...

Recap: 1-0 +$100

Record: 13-10 +$203

Don't have any strong plays today, so I'll bank the profits from yesterday and go into the final week of the season using house money.

Good luck with your plays today.

Record: 13-10, +$203

Went 2-0 last week which will be good enough to guarantee me a small profit on the regular season.

In any other sport, with a larger size betting unit, I might take the last week off as reward for a season well done. But these are just small, action/fun size units so I'll have some kind of play this week.

Besides, every game this week has playoff implications, how cool is that?

Birmingham is the only team that's locked up a playoff spot. They're playing the Memphis Haley's, who need to win to see postseason action.

In the North, the four teams are facing their division rivals, all - Philadelphia, Michigan, Pittsburgh, and New Jersey - needing a win to make the playoffs.

Abandoning the "Fade every game" experiment that I noted in week one was a good move. The writer I chose to fade had two straight losing seasons but he's at 22-14 this year for a profit of $690, an amount similar to what I would have lost if I'd faded him throughout the year (Why don't I ever mention which writer? Because I'm not here to pick on anyone or make fun of anyone, just trying to have some fun and finish the year with a little + in my balance.)

With playoff implications in every game I'd like to have action on all four of them. But I'm locking up a profit by using a quarter of a unit for each game. Here are some thoughts:

NJ finally looked like they got back on track last week as they rolled over Philadelphia, but do I trust them laying that hook over a FG? No, I do not. Buying the other side though means taking Pittsburgh, who turned out to be just as bad as I thought they'd be when I talked about them in the early season here. Then again, NJ isn't much better, they're both at 3-6. Under is probably the better option, with two decent defenses and New Jersey relying on a running game, but I'm a Jersey boy so I'll take a chance that the hook doesn't screw me and take the team I think is going to win SU and hope they cover.

In the second game, Birmingham's already clinched so the question is will they take their foot off the gas vs Memphis, who needs to win to make the playoffs? Yes, I expect them to protect their stars and use a limited game plan in a meaningless contest. Does that mean Memphis is the play? Here's my note from last week: "The Todd Haley's have been playing way over their head thanks to decent quarterback play but it's still Haley at head coach and he's way overdue to revert back to a bone-headed pumpkin." So I took NO. Final score? NO 31-3. No way I'm playing the Haley's. I like the Over but I'm gunshy because, like I said, I think Birmingham goes conservative this week. I'll wait till results are in from the early game before making a decision on the afternoon game. If I make a play I'll post it.

Buys:

NJ -3'

Recap: 0-1, -$27.50

Record: 13-11, +$175.50

Looking at the stats, you would say New Jersey lost because of turnovers (3, including one in the red zone) and penalties (I think they finished with 13. The average NFL Ov/Un prop bet for penalties in a game is usually in the 10-12 range, for BOTH teams combined. NJ had 12-13 by themselves.) But even without the turnovers and penalties they were flat and would have lost anyway.

Today I'm starting with two plays on the early game, same unit size as yesterday so I can lock up a profit on the season.

Yes, New Orleans is easily the better team, but they've already locked up a playoff spot. Houston seems to always be in a tight game so I'll grab the FG + a hook.

I like the Under in this game too, based on NO already having their spot locked up. This didn't work yesterday with Birmingham, the game I like the Ov in, as noted in my last post. I stayed off the play because I thought Skip Holtz would protect his QB and likely league MVP McGough. But for some reason he kept him in there the whole game, even with a substantial lead. The game announcers questioned this a few times in the fourth quarter, especially after Holtz called for a designed quarterback run, an unnecessary risk of injury with the game easily in hand in the playoffs ahead. The game finished Ov the posted total.

I expect NO HC DeFillipo won't be as foolish as Holtz, and will protect his stars by limiting their play, which will hopefully limit their scoring, making the Dog and the Un attractive in my eyes.

Buys:

Hou +3'

Hou/NO Un 44'

Uh-oh, NO has NOT locked up a playoff spot.

Friggin' amateur mistake. Ugh.