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HoH's AFL Round 15

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HeadOverHeart

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Posts: 22502

Posted: Jul. 12, 2008 - 11:56 AM ET #26

Quote Originally Posted by HeadOverHeart:

Power v. Kangaroos @ AAMI, EVENS

Everyone has the Swans/Hawks match written down as the match of the round, including myself, but my non-Swans barracking self clearly has this as the battle of battles for Round 15. This match clearly has my interest over any other match of the round (besides my rooting interest in the Swans) and will be well worth watching, in my opinion.

Ah, this game has me good. The Power lead the Roos in most statistical categories. However, we all know what has happened to the Power since, well, they have plumb given up on the season! The Roos, on the other hand, not only haven't, but are making a solid and honest push for the Eight.

We've got Chad Cornes coming back for the Power and his bro Kane ready to hit out as well. Quite frankly, I have no love for Port, but being a recent new father myself, if someone tilched me on the pitch about my new child, Barry Hall/Brett Staker would have been kindergarten news. If I didn't get an 8-game minimum from the Tribunal, I would have been embarrassed.

Anyway, back to this game.

Quite frankly, if the Roos matched up better against the Power, this match would be an eat 'em up, eat 'em up best bet of the round..................but they do not. The Power have the axe over the Roos in most areas where it counts. But, remember, that also includes numbers back in the part of the season whent eh Power said it mattered. How about now?

That being said, the mental aspect of sport is so important, so undervalued, and so not in the numbers.

Port has said their season is finished. The Roos are fighting for everything they've got.

At a pick 'em, that's all I need to know.

PICK: NORTH MELBOURNE KANGAROOS @ EVENS

Definitely the match of the round so far. Roos win a nailbiter!

Kangas =

HeadOverHeart

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Posted: Jul. 12, 2008 - 11:58 AM ET #27

Quote Originally Posted by binomial:

like them all, except not sure about the dogs.

Not that Brisbane has been exposed again at how they are massively struggling, the Demons win last round has been somewhat cheapened. Dogs minus the points looks even better now.

HeadOverHeart

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Posts: 22502

Posted: Jul. 12, 2008 - 12:02 PM ET #28

Quote Originally Posted by gmanea:

I agree with you in that Carlton should beat St.Kilda tonight, in fact have them in a parlay with the U39.5 bet. However some of your arguments as to why they will win I'm not so sure about, not so easy to say one side is better than the other offensively or defensively because of the statistics. St.Kilda have often played a slower more defensive style of game, flooding the backline and so on compared to Carlton this year attacking more up the middle and giving their forwards more opportunities. Personally I think the Saints have the better forward line (offense as you like to put it haha) but it isn't functioning too well at the moment, it only begun to work well against the Kangaroos when the midfield started to take more risks and move it quicker... hence they ended up winning.

Good luck mate.

Got mucked with Carlton. Only blemish so far this round.

I do think St. Kilda have better talent in most places around the oval, but if it ain't working, it ain't working. Looks at the Crows for example. Their forward and half-forward lines are scary on paper......but they haven't been able to score for much the last five or so rounds. I rated the Saints in the same way but they decided to show up more often that the Blues did.

HeadOverHeart

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Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 22502

Posted: Jul. 12, 2008 - 12:08 PM ET #29

Quote Originally Posted by gmanea:

"However, with the gentlemanly penchant of the Cats to let go when up big"

I don't think we've seen that at all from Geelong in the last two years, especially in the last 4 weeks or so since their loss to Collingwood they play all four qtrs hard and do not let up. Collingwood brought them back to reality and what we've seen from Geelong since then is them at their best and I think it has sent a fright to teams like Hawthorn and Bulldogs who may have seen Geelong as vulnerable earlier in the year.

The Cats had "let-up" syndrome until the Pies sorted them out in Round 9. After the Collingwood blow-up, the Cats haven't played much of anyone except the Roos and that was a competitive game. After so many blow-outs against teams that will not make the 8 and an Adelaide that suddenly cannot score goals anymore, and with WB and Hawks on the immediate horizon, you have to start to wonder if the Cats would have gone up by 30-ish and coasted.

It was a tricky spot, but a good spot yet, and that's why the call on the Cats was made, albeit a small one.

HeadOverHeart

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Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 22502

Posted: Jul. 13, 2008 - 12:48 PM ET #30

Quote Originally Posted by HeadOverHeart:

Bulldogs v. Demons @ Telstra Dome, Bulldogs -42.5

OK, short and sweet sometimes is the cake and I believe it is it with this match.

The Demons are Green, White, Davey, and Wonaeamirri. No more, no less. Wonaeamirri played the Swans for a fool and with lucky hops and bounces got the better of the Lions as well. However, we have Davey taking himself out of this match due to attending a friend's mother's funeral. Thusly, the Demons have suspended him to the VFL for the round. "Unprofessional preparation" they are calling it, even after his great performance against Brisbane. Now, to be honest, if a mate's mum passes away, I am going to the funeral. Unprofessional preparation? Perhaps if I was drunk and out of it, I would call myself in, but if Davey was not and decided to take a leave of absence for this and got called on it, it is very bad taste by the Demons.

Any matter, Davey is out and so are the Dees. Johnno is calling this a "danger game" for the Bulldogs and we all know that this is bullshit. The Bulldogs take no chances and that is what makes them a strong contender for the flag. Big win syndrome hits the Dees. After the possible win of the AFL season (by any team) against Fremantle, the Dees ran out to 76-point losers the next round. The Dogs are hungry for the top spot and I have no idea what the Demons are thinking suspending one of their top players for attending a mate's mother's funeral. Normally, this would be a spot-on sharp spread and a a no-play.

Not here. Not now.

PICK: WESTERN BULLDOGS -42.5

Looking good until the final term when Melbourne pulled it back to some respectability.

3-2 on the Round.

Tipped the Magpies, Hawks, and Tigers on the non-wagers in my tipping comp.

And don't get me started on the Swans. I don't think I could have gotten more frustrated even if you put a bevy of beautiful women in front of me and (In my dream) I looked down only to find I didn't have a penis.

WHAT WAS ROOS THINKING? Not once did the Swans pressure the Hawks in the forward 50 on kick-outs, not once. Hawks had the first two, sometimes three, options open because of it and were playing with half a field for the entire game. How are you supposed to win a game playing defense tactics like that? BOOOOOO!!!

The Hawks, on the other hand, were chasing the Swans down in the forward circle like cats after mice for the whole game and it paid off nicely in the form of three or so goals off of spills and turnover marks all over outside of the 50 metre line. The Swans never had a chance with either of those schemes.

Roos can join the Chooks in the Bin of Shame for this round as far as I'm concerned...hmph...

Looking good until the final term when Melbourne pulled it back to some respectability.

3-2 on the Round.

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