Posted:
#1
OK boys and lads......no mercy this round.
Let's get this shit done!
Let's get this shit done!
HoH's AFL Round 15
Posted:
#2
Blues v. Saints @ MCG - Evens
When was the last time Carlton beat St. Kilda? 1909? 1876? Oh, who the hell knows. It hasn't been anytime recent, that's for sure.
Judd in for the Blues with the Saints regaining Hayes and Gardiner amongst others.
Carlton leads St. Kilda in almost every offensive statistic. St. Kilda is more solid in defense, but that takes away credit from the Blues' rapidly improving defensive scheme. Also, when you play as recklessly in offense as the Blues do, you tend to allow yourself to give up some leeway in the defensive front.
The Blues show no tiring in offense and are, as mentioned, improving in defense. The Saints are a shaky lot when it comes to reliable goal-kicking and that is a poor proposition when playing a team like Carlton.
The Saints beat the Blues hands down in the effort stats, but again, that could be misleading. When you struggle to score goals, your defense picks up and adds to your effort statistics. If Carlton come to play, there should be little the Saints can offer for four quarters to challenge.
I see the Blues winning by 9 to 11 here so at a pick 'em will gladly back the Blues.
PICK: Carlton Blues @ Evens
When was the last time Carlton beat St. Kilda? 1909? 1876? Oh, who the hell knows. It hasn't been anytime recent, that's for sure.
Judd in for the Blues with the Saints regaining Hayes and Gardiner amongst others.
Carlton leads St. Kilda in almost every offensive statistic. St. Kilda is more solid in defense, but that takes away credit from the Blues' rapidly improving defensive scheme. Also, when you play as recklessly in offense as the Blues do, you tend to allow yourself to give up some leeway in the defensive front.
The Blues show no tiring in offense and are, as mentioned, improving in defense. The Saints are a shaky lot when it comes to reliable goal-kicking and that is a poor proposition when playing a team like Carlton.
The Saints beat the Blues hands down in the effort stats, but again, that could be misleading. When you struggle to score goals, your defense picks up and adds to your effort statistics. If Carlton come to play, there should be little the Saints can offer for four quarters to challenge.
I see the Blues winning by 9 to 11 here so at a pick 'em will gladly back the Blues.
PICK: Carlton Blues @ Evens
Posted:
#3
Magpies v. Crows @ MCG, Pies -17.5
Also at the MCG, the Maggies find themselves 17.5-point favorites hot off the upset win over Sydney. Will this continue against the up-and-down Crows this round?
Both teams play the Melbourne ground well. Collingwood lead the Crows in most offensive categories. However, one thing does stick out to me and that is forcing errors. Adelaide is second only to the mighty Cats in forcing their opponents into mistakes. Collingwood is nowhere near as good, languishing in a weak 14th. Although this might be a minor issue, I think it is more important than it seems at first glance and will play a role in picking a spread winner here.
Big win letdown syndrome could hit the Pies this round. The Crows will want to get a little more consistency in their game going this round. With all of that involved, I've got this pegged as a 21-point Collingwood victory. Much too close to the spread and thusly a no play for me.
PICK: NO PLAY
Also at the MCG, the Maggies find themselves 17.5-point favorites hot off the upset win over Sydney. Will this continue against the up-and-down Crows this round?
Both teams play the Melbourne ground well. Collingwood lead the Crows in most offensive categories. However, one thing does stick out to me and that is forcing errors. Adelaide is second only to the mighty Cats in forcing their opponents into mistakes. Collingwood is nowhere near as good, languishing in a weak 14th. Although this might be a minor issue, I think it is more important than it seems at first glance and will play a role in picking a spread winner here.
Big win letdown syndrome could hit the Pies this round. The Crows will want to get a little more consistency in their game going this round. With all of that involved, I've got this pegged as a 21-point Collingwood victory. Much too close to the spread and thusly a no play for me.
PICK: NO PLAY
Posted:
#4
Cats v. Dockers @ Skilled, Cats -44.5
This shapes up as a rematch of round six in which Fremantle came awfully close of beating the reigning premiers, falling just one point short. Do they have this in them again to force it close in round fifteen?
Cats are clean on the injury ward whilst Fremantle ain't so lucky. They are pretty banged up but do get Farmer back.
Quite frankly, this is a hard game to cap because we all know who wins this game. But by how much? Geelong can tear open this Dockers side at SS by 100 points if needed. However, with the gentlemanly penchant of the Cats to let go when up big, can we trust them to cover such a lofty spread?
I have this game pegged at 45 points to the Cats due to some decent defensive numbers by the Dockers and the Cats let-off syndrome. This is a very sharp spread, IMO.
However, I do think it has been a while since the Cats have smelled blood in quite this way (see last round) and well be hungry to continue ripping into foes after the Adelaide bloodbath. Fremantle, on the other hand, traveling to Skilled will not be a fun proposition and might let down late, allowing in some sloppy goals they might otherwise not.
This could make the difference in a spread winner.
Small is the key here.
PICK: Geelong Cats -44.5 (small)
This shapes up as a rematch of round six in which Fremantle came awfully close of beating the reigning premiers, falling just one point short. Do they have this in them again to force it close in round fifteen?
Cats are clean on the injury ward whilst Fremantle ain't so lucky. They are pretty banged up but do get Farmer back.
Quite frankly, this is a hard game to cap because we all know who wins this game. But by how much? Geelong can tear open this Dockers side at SS by 100 points if needed. However, with the gentlemanly penchant of the Cats to let go when up big, can we trust them to cover such a lofty spread?
I have this game pegged at 45 points to the Cats due to some decent defensive numbers by the Dockers and the Cats let-off syndrome. This is a very sharp spread, IMO.
However, I do think it has been a while since the Cats have smelled blood in quite this way (see last round) and well be hungry to continue ripping into foes after the Adelaide bloodbath. Fremantle, on the other hand, traveling to Skilled will not be a fun proposition and might let down late, allowing in some sloppy goals they might otherwise not.
This could make the difference in a spread winner.
Small is the key here.
PICK: Geelong Cats -44.5 (small)
Posted:
#6
Bombers v. Lions @ Telstra Dome, Lions -10
Well, everyone on this site knows what I think of the Lions right now. Lost my ass on the Lions last round when I thought the Dees were the spread winner of the round. I won't be fooling myself like that again................ever. Only thing I got out of that match was just another dose of immense appreciation of how amazingly great footy is. Just wished the price tag wasn't so steep.
HeadOverHeart Lately - Click Here
Anyway, back to this round. Let me state that, offensively, Brisbane is absolute garbage. Yes, they put up points, but it is ugly. Kicks, marks, and disposals, they are dead last, 16th in the comp. How they are still in the Final 8 contention is absolutely beyond me and proof that numbers can sometimes lie. Any team that can move the ball will give this Lions side shit fits, as the Demons did last round. The Bombers aren't much better, ranking either 14th or 15th in those areas, but they can move the ball and that lights up bulbs for me.
I've got this pegged as a two-point Lions win. However, since the Lions do allow the most disposals out of any team, I favor the Bombers ability to move the ball in this match and am tipping them to win. Why peg the Lions to win then? Even though Matthews was an absolute no-show coach last round, I cannot expect him to allow his side to lay low for yet another round. Heads will roll if it does.
The Bombers are playing with something the Lions are not right now and that is gusto. Take the points and the happier team at just a little less than normal stakes.
PICK: ESSENDON BOMBERS +10 (medium)
HeadOverHeart FromNowOn - Click Here
Well, everyone on this site knows what I think of the Lions right now. Lost my ass on the Lions last round when I thought the Dees were the spread winner of the round. I won't be fooling myself like that again................ever. Only thing I got out of that match was just another dose of immense appreciation of how amazingly great footy is. Just wished the price tag wasn't so steep.
HeadOverHeart Lately - Click Here
Anyway, back to this round. Let me state that, offensively, Brisbane is absolute garbage. Yes, they put up points, but it is ugly. Kicks, marks, and disposals, they are dead last, 16th in the comp. How they are still in the Final 8 contention is absolutely beyond me and proof that numbers can sometimes lie. Any team that can move the ball will give this Lions side shit fits, as the Demons did last round. The Bombers aren't much better, ranking either 14th or 15th in those areas, but they can move the ball and that lights up bulbs for me.
I've got this pegged as a two-point Lions win. However, since the Lions do allow the most disposals out of any team, I favor the Bombers ability to move the ball in this match and am tipping them to win. Why peg the Lions to win then? Even though Matthews was an absolute no-show coach last round, I cannot expect him to allow his side to lay low for yet another round. Heads will roll if it does.
The Bombers are playing with something the Lions are not right now and that is gusto. Take the points and the happier team at just a little less than normal stakes.
PICK: ESSENDON BOMBERS +10 (medium)
HeadOverHeart FromNowOn - Click Here
Posted:
#8
Power v. Kangaroos @ AAMI, EVENS
Everyone has the Swans/Hawks match written down as the match of the round, including myself, but my non-Swans barracking self clearly has this as the battle of battles for Round 15. This match clearly has my interest over any other match of the round (besides my rooting interest in the Swans) and will be well worth watching, in my opinion.
Ah, this game has me good. The Power lead the Roos in most statistical categories. However, we all know what has happened to the Power since, well, they have plumb given up on the season! The Roos, on the other hand, not only haven't, but are making a solid and honest push for the Eight.
We've got Chad Cornes coming back for the Power and his bro Kane ready to hit out as well. Quite frankly, I have no love for Port, but being a recent new father myself, if someone tilched me on the pitch about my new child, Barry Hall/Brett Staker would have been kindergarten news. If I didn't get an 8-game minimum from the Tribunal, I would have been embarrassed.
Anyway, back to this game.
Quite frankly, if the Roos matched up better against the Power, this match would be an eat 'em up, eat 'em up best bet of the round..................but they do not. The Power have the axe over the Roos in most areas where it counts. But, remember, that also includes numbers back in the part of the season whent eh Power said it mattered. How about now?
That being said, the mental aspect of sport is so important, so undervalued, and so not in the numbers.
Port has said their season is finished. The Roos are fighting for everything they've got.
At a pick 'em, that's all I need to know.
PICK: NORTH MELBOURNE KANGAROOS @ EVENS
Everyone has the Swans/Hawks match written down as the match of the round, including myself, but my non-Swans barracking self clearly has this as the battle of battles for Round 15. This match clearly has my interest over any other match of the round (besides my rooting interest in the Swans) and will be well worth watching, in my opinion.
Ah, this game has me good. The Power lead the Roos in most statistical categories. However, we all know what has happened to the Power since, well, they have plumb given up on the season! The Roos, on the other hand, not only haven't, but are making a solid and honest push for the Eight.
We've got Chad Cornes coming back for the Power and his bro Kane ready to hit out as well. Quite frankly, I have no love for Port, but being a recent new father myself, if someone tilched me on the pitch about my new child, Barry Hall/Brett Staker would have been kindergarten news. If I didn't get an 8-game minimum from the Tribunal, I would have been embarrassed.
Anyway, back to this game.
Quite frankly, if the Roos matched up better against the Power, this match would be an eat 'em up, eat 'em up best bet of the round..................but they do not. The Power have the axe over the Roos in most areas where it counts. But, remember, that also includes numbers back in the part of the season whent eh Power said it mattered. How about now?
That being said, the mental aspect of sport is so important, so undervalued, and so not in the numbers.
Port has said their season is finished. The Roos are fighting for everything they've got.
At a pick 'em, that's all I need to know.
PICK: NORTH MELBOURNE KANGAROOS @ EVENS
Posted:
#9
Hawks v. Swans @ MCG, Hawks -16.5
Here we go, the match of the season so far for the Swans. Coming off of that pitiful performance against the Magpies, can the Swans rebound in time to beat the suddenly hot again Hawks? The Hawks have had the benefit of an extra week off, playing in the first half of the split-round, whilst the Swans will be fresh off their wounds of last week.
This will be the first game of the season for the Swans at the MCG. The Hawks are not new to this ground, obviously, and play it very well. Hmmmmm.....
Anytime I see a quality side like the Swans getting an almost three-goal head-start, my head swims. The Swans +16.5? Really? Are you kidding me? Is it against Geelong at Skilled? NO?!!?!?! Well then...........
However, with the extra week off and the extra-good form at the MCG, the Hawks may have well earned this head-start given by Australia's bookkeepers.
Statistically, the Hawks and Swans match up very well; each winning in their own categories, back and forth. There is not any true advantage to be gained.
So, do we have an extra week off and good form at the MCG worth 16.5 points? What do you think? Yes? No? As for me, I do not know. The beating at the hands of Collingwood plus the fact that the Swans haven't lost to the Hawks since 2003 could be a mystery factor in this game. That being said, I will be rooting in my Red and White guernsey come this weekend with nothing on the table. The Hawks should win, but we all know how that goes. Too cloudy to back any side here on the line.
PICK: NO PLAY
Here we go, the match of the season so far for the Swans. Coming off of that pitiful performance against the Magpies, can the Swans rebound in time to beat the suddenly hot again Hawks? The Hawks have had the benefit of an extra week off, playing in the first half of the split-round, whilst the Swans will be fresh off their wounds of last week.
This will be the first game of the season for the Swans at the MCG. The Hawks are not new to this ground, obviously, and play it very well. Hmmmmm.....
Anytime I see a quality side like the Swans getting an almost three-goal head-start, my head swims. The Swans +16.5? Really? Are you kidding me? Is it against Geelong at Skilled? NO?!!?!?! Well then...........
However, with the extra week off and the extra-good form at the MCG, the Hawks may have well earned this head-start given by Australia's bookkeepers.
Statistically, the Hawks and Swans match up very well; each winning in their own categories, back and forth. There is not any true advantage to be gained.
So, do we have an extra week off and good form at the MCG worth 16.5 points? What do you think? Yes? No? As for me, I do not know. The beating at the hands of Collingwood plus the fact that the Swans haven't lost to the Hawks since 2003 could be a mystery factor in this game. That being said, I will be rooting in my Red and White guernsey come this weekend with nothing on the table. The Hawks should win, but we all know how that goes. Too cloudy to back any side here on the line.
PICK: NO PLAY
Posted:
#11
Bulldogs v. Demons @ Telstra Dome, Bulldogs -42.5
OK, short and sweet sometimes is the cake and I believe it is it with this match.
The Demons are Green, White, Davey, and Wonaeamirri. No more, no less. Wonaeamirri played the Swans for a fool and with lucky hops and bounces got the better of the Lions as well. However, we have Davey taking himself out of this match due to attending a friend's mother's funeral. Thusly, the Demons have suspended him to the VFL for the round. "Unprofessional preparation" they are calling it, even after his great performance against Brisbane. Now, to be honest, if a mate's mum passes away, I am going to the funeral. Unprofessional preparation? Perhaps if I was drunk and out of it, I would call myself in, but if Davey was not and decided to take a leave of absence for this and got called on it, it is very bad taste by the Demons.
Any matter, Davey is out and so are the Dees. Johnno is calling this a "danger game" for the Bulldogs and we all know that this is bullshit. The Bulldogs take no chances and that is what makes them a strong contender for the flag. Big win syndrome hits the Dees. After the possible win of the AFL season (by any team) against Fremantle, the Dees ran out to 76-point losers the next round. The Dogs are hungry for the top spot and I have no idea what the Demons are thinking suspending one of their top players for attending a mate's mother's funeral. Normally, this would be a spot-on sharp spread and a a no-play.
Not here. Not now.
PICK: WESTERN BULLDOGS -42.5
OK, short and sweet sometimes is the cake and I believe it is it with this match.
The Demons are Green, White, Davey, and Wonaeamirri. No more, no less. Wonaeamirri played the Swans for a fool and with lucky hops and bounces got the better of the Lions as well. However, we have Davey taking himself out of this match due to attending a friend's mother's funeral. Thusly, the Demons have suspended him to the VFL for the round. "Unprofessional preparation" they are calling it, even after his great performance against Brisbane. Now, to be honest, if a mate's mum passes away, I am going to the funeral. Unprofessional preparation? Perhaps if I was drunk and out of it, I would call myself in, but if Davey was not and decided to take a leave of absence for this and got called on it, it is very bad taste by the Demons.
Any matter, Davey is out and so are the Dees. Johnno is calling this a "danger game" for the Bulldogs and we all know that this is bullshit. The Bulldogs take no chances and that is what makes them a strong contender for the flag. Big win syndrome hits the Dees. After the possible win of the AFL season (by any team) against Fremantle, the Dees ran out to 76-point losers the next round. The Dogs are hungry for the top spot and I have no idea what the Demons are thinking suspending one of their top players for attending a mate's mother's funeral. Normally, this would be a spot-on sharp spread and a a no-play.
Not here. Not now.
PICK: WESTERN BULLDOGS -42.5
Posted:
#12
Eagles v. Tigers @ Subiaco, EVENS
In a nutshell, Kerr and Richo are doubts and the struggling Eagles are at Subiaco.
If you need anything more to tell you that this is a no play, then I cannot help you.
Don't the books just love this kind of match being this last one (chaser) of a round?
PICK: NO PLAY
In a nutshell, Kerr and Richo are doubts and the struggling Eagles are at Subiaco.
If you need anything more to tell you that this is a no play, then I cannot help you.
Don't the books just love this kind of match being this last one (chaser) of a round?
PICK: NO PLAY
Posted:
#14
Here come my leans mate. Will add picks into my thread later.
Blues at + whatever
Crows +17.5 (Hopefully this moves up. Big game coming upfor the Birdman, McCleod possibly back and all the Thompson shit is over add the lose against the Cats)
Freo (Anything over 46. Gman am I right in thinking Geelong might get some rain this weekend?)
Lions ML (Big bounce back here too)
Swans +15.5 (Or over. Swans play well against the Hawks and will left)
Bulldogs (Get the start but not over 42)
Weagles (Yes that is right, subject to final inclusions)
Posted:
#16
Quote Originally Posted by ecoute:
Here come my leans mate. Will add picks into my thread later.
Blues at + whatever
Crows +17.5 (Hopefully this moves up. Big game coming upfor the Birdman, McCleod possibly back and all the Thompson shit is over add the lose against the Cats)
Freo (Anything over 46. Gman am I right in thinking Geelong might get some rain this weekend?)
Lions ML (Big bounce back here too)
Swans +15.5 (Or over. Swans play well against the Hawks and will left)
Bulldogs (Get the start but not over 42)
Weagles (Yes that is right, subject to final inclusions)
Good luck ecoute! Should be some $ in this week, for sure!
Blues to the bank!
Posted:
#17
Quote Originally Posted by showmethemoney1:
looking all professional now with your detailed writeups HOH
so far ive taken the saints, port and wc mls and hawks -15.5
so far ive taken the saints, port and wc mls and hawks -15.5Hahaha...thanks showme. I used to do this with my Play of the Round every week, and for myself, every other game as well, but then I got lazy and shot from the hip and didn't do as well. Hopefully this gives some insight to anyone looking for a punt on the matches. In addition, I try to cover some angles that may not be the obvious ones and may have been overlooked.
I see your punts this round are either totally opposite mine or playing games that I laid off of.
I don't think that has ever happened before!
Posted:
#20
I agree with you in that Carlton should beat St.Kilda tonight, in fact have them in a parlay with the U39.5 bet. However some of your arguments as to why they will win I'm not so sure about, not so easy to say one side is better than the other offensively or defensively because of the statistics. St.Kilda have often played a slower more defensive style of game, flooding the backline and so on compared to Carlton this year attacking more up the middle and giving their forwards more opportunities. Personally I think the Saints have the better forward line (offense as you like to put it haha) but it isn't functioning too well at the moment, it only begun to work well against the Kangaroos when the midfield started to take more risks and move it quicker... hence they ended up winning.
Good luck mate.
Good luck mate.
Posted:
#21
"However, with the gentlemanly penchant of the Cats to let go when up big"
I don't think we've seen that at all from Geelong in the last two years, especially in the last 4 weeks or so since their loss to Collingwood they play all four qtrs hard and do not let up. Collingwood brought them back to reality and what we've seen from Geelong since then is them at their best and I think it has sent a fright to teams like Hawthorn and Bulldogs who may have seen Geelong as vulnerable earlier in the year.
I don't think we've seen that at all from Geelong in the last two years, especially in the last 4 weeks or so since their loss to Collingwood they play all four qtrs hard and do not let up. Collingwood brought them back to reality and what we've seen from Geelong since then is them at their best and I think it has sent a fright to teams like Hawthorn and Bulldogs who may have seen Geelong as vulnerable earlier in the year.
Posted:
#22
Quote Originally Posted by HeadOverHeart:
Blues v. Saints @ MCG - Evens
When was the last time Carlton beat St. Kilda? 1909? 1876? Oh, who the hell knows. It hasn't been anytime recent, that's for sure.
Judd in for the Blues with the Saints regaining Hayes and Gardiner amongst others.
Carlton leads St. Kilda in almost every offensive statistic. St. Kilda is more solid in defense, but that takes away credit from the Blues' rapidly improving defensive scheme. Also, when you play as recklessly in offense as the Blues do, you tend to allow yourself to give up some leeway in the defensive front.
The Blues show no tiring in offense and are, as mentioned, improving in defense. The Saints are a shaky lot when it comes to reliable goal-kicking and that is a poor proposition when playing a team like Carlton.
The Saints beat the Blues hands down in the effort stats, but again, that could be misleading. When you struggle to score goals, your defense picks up and adds to your effort statistics. If Carlton come to play, there should be little the Saints can offer for four quarters to challenge.
I see the Blues winning by 9 to 11 here so at a pick 'em will gladly back the Blues.
PICK: Carlton Blues @ Evens
Blues v. Saints @ MCG - Evens
When was the last time Carlton beat St. Kilda? 1909? 1876? Oh, who the hell knows. It hasn't been anytime recent, that's for sure.
Judd in for the Blues with the Saints regaining Hayes and Gardiner amongst others.
Carlton leads St. Kilda in almost every offensive statistic. St. Kilda is more solid in defense, but that takes away credit from the Blues' rapidly improving defensive scheme. Also, when you play as recklessly in offense as the Blues do, you tend to allow yourself to give up some leeway in the defensive front.
The Blues show no tiring in offense and are, as mentioned, improving in defense. The Saints are a shaky lot when it comes to reliable goal-kicking and that is a poor proposition when playing a team like Carlton.
The Saints beat the Blues hands down in the effort stats, but again, that could be misleading. When you struggle to score goals, your defense picks up and adds to your effort statistics. If Carlton come to play, there should be little the Saints can offer for four quarters to challenge.
I see the Blues winning by 9 to 11 here so at a pick 'em will gladly back the Blues.
PICK: Carlton Blues @ Evens
Carlton
Started off well and started the 4th Term off nicely too, but fell short. Really though the Blues wouldn't have so many dry stretches offensively in there.
Posted:
#23
Quote Originally Posted by HeadOverHeart:
Magpies v. Crows @ MCG, Pies -17.5
Also at the MCG, the Maggies find themselves 17.5-point favorites hot off the upset win over Sydney. Will this continue against the up-and-down Crows this round?
Both teams play the Melbourne ground well. Collingwood lead the Crows in most offensive categories. However, one thing does stick out to me and that is forcing errors. Adelaide is second only to the mighty Cats in forcing their opponents into mistakes. Collingwood is nowhere near as good, languishing in a weak 14th. Although this might be a minor issue, I think it is more important than it seems at first glance and will play a role in picking a spread winner here.
Big win letdown syndrome could hit the Pies this round. The Crows will want to get a little more consistency in their game going this round. With all of that involved, I've got this pegged as a 21-point Collingwood victory. Much too close to the spread and thusly a no play for me.
PICK: NO PLAY
Magpies v. Crows @ MCG, Pies -17.5
Also at the MCG, the Maggies find themselves 17.5-point favorites hot off the upset win over Sydney. Will this continue against the up-and-down Crows this round?
Both teams play the Melbourne ground well. Collingwood lead the Crows in most offensive categories. However, one thing does stick out to me and that is forcing errors. Adelaide is second only to the mighty Cats in forcing their opponents into mistakes. Collingwood is nowhere near as good, languishing in a weak 14th. Although this might be a minor issue, I think it is more important than it seems at first glance and will play a role in picking a spread winner here.
Big win letdown syndrome could hit the Pies this round. The Crows will want to get a little more consistency in their game going this round. With all of that involved, I've got this pegged as a 21-point Collingwood victory. Much too close to the spread and thusly a no play for me.
PICK: NO PLAY
Adelaide led for most of this game and the errors chalked up by the Pies int he 1st Half was astounding. Proplezia and Burton out hurt the Crows big time, especially when Burton went down after kicking four of their eight goals. Crows could have won this game or definitely kept it within the spread had he not gone out. Collingwood dominated after that.
Posted:
#24
Quote Originally Posted by HeadOverHeart:
Cats v. Dockers @ Skilled, Cats -44.5
This shapes up as a rematch of round six in which Fremantle came awfully close of beating the reigning premiers, falling just one point short. Do they have this in them again to force it close in round fifteen?
Cats are clean on the injury ward whilst Fremantle ain't so lucky. They are pretty banged up but do get Farmer back.
Quite frankly, this is a hard game to cap because we all know who wins this game. But by how much? Geelong can tear open this Dockers side at SS by 100 points if needed. However, with the gentlemanly penchant of the Cats to let go when up big, can we trust them to cover such a lofty spread?
I have this game pegged at 45 points to the Cats due to some decent defensive numbers by the Dockers and the Cats let-off syndrome. This is a very sharp spread, IMO.
However, I do think it has been a while since the Cats have smelled blood in quite this way (see last round) and well be hungry to continue ripping into foes after the Adelaide bloodbath. Fremantle, on the other hand, traveling to Skilled will not be a fun proposition and might let down late, allowing in some sloppy goals they might otherwise not.
This could make the difference in a spread winner.
Small is the key here.
PICK: Geelong Cats -44.5 (small)
Cats v. Dockers @ Skilled, Cats -44.5
This shapes up as a rematch of round six in which Fremantle came awfully close of beating the reigning premiers, falling just one point short. Do they have this in them again to force it close in round fifteen?
Cats are clean on the injury ward whilst Fremantle ain't so lucky. They are pretty banged up but do get Farmer back.
Quite frankly, this is a hard game to cap because we all know who wins this game. But by how much? Geelong can tear open this Dockers side at SS by 100 points if needed. However, with the gentlemanly penchant of the Cats to let go when up big, can we trust them to cover such a lofty spread?
I have this game pegged at 45 points to the Cats due to some decent defensive numbers by the Dockers and the Cats let-off syndrome. This is a very sharp spread, IMO.
However, I do think it has been a while since the Cats have smelled blood in quite this way (see last round) and well be hungry to continue ripping into foes after the Adelaide bloodbath. Fremantle, on the other hand, traveling to Skilled will not be a fun proposition and might let down late, allowing in some sloppy goals they might otherwise not.
This could make the difference in a spread winner.
Small is the key here.
PICK: Geelong Cats -44.5 (small)
Cats =
Posted:
#25
Quote Originally Posted by HeadOverHeart:
Bombers v. Lions @ Telstra Dome, Lions -10
Well, everyone on this site knows what I think of the Lions right now. Lost my ass on the Lions last round when I thought the Dees were the spread winner of the round. I won't be fooling myself like that again................ever. Only thing I got out of that match was just another dose of immense appreciation of how amazingly great footy is. Just wished the price tag wasn't so steep.
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Anyway, back to this round. Let me state that, offensively, Brisbane is absolute garbage. Yes, they put up points, but it is ugly. Kicks, marks, and disposals, they are dead last, 16th in the comp. How they are still in the Final 8 contention is absolutely beyond me and proof that numbers can sometimes lie. Any team that can move the ball will give this Lions side shit fits, as the Demons did last round. The Bombers aren't much better, ranking either 14th or 15th in those areas, but they can move the ball and that lights up bulbs for me.
I've got this pegged as a two-point Lions win. However, since the Lions do allow the most disposals out of any team, I favor the Bombers ability to move the ball in this match and am tipping them to win. Why peg the Lions to win then? Even though Matthews was an absolute no-show coach last round, I cannot expect him to allow his side to lay low for yet another round. Heads will roll if it does.
The Bombers are playing with something the Lions are not right now and that is gusto. Take the points and the happier team at just a little less than normal stakes.
PICK: ESSENDON BOMBERS +10 (medium)
HeadOverHeart FromNowOn - Click Here
Bombers v. Lions @ Telstra Dome, Lions -10
Well, everyone on this site knows what I think of the Lions right now. Lost my ass on the Lions last round when I thought the Dees were the spread winner of the round. I won't be fooling myself like that again................ever. Only thing I got out of that match was just another dose of immense appreciation of how amazingly great footy is. Just wished the price tag wasn't so steep.
HeadOverHeart Lately - Click Here
Anyway, back to this round. Let me state that, offensively, Brisbane is absolute garbage. Yes, they put up points, but it is ugly. Kicks, marks, and disposals, they are dead last, 16th in the comp. How they are still in the Final 8 contention is absolutely beyond me and proof that numbers can sometimes lie. Any team that can move the ball will give this Lions side shit fits, as the Demons did last round. The Bombers aren't much better, ranking either 14th or 15th in those areas, but they can move the ball and that lights up bulbs for me.
I've got this pegged as a two-point Lions win. However, since the Lions do allow the most disposals out of any team, I favor the Bombers ability to move the ball in this match and am tipping them to win. Why peg the Lions to win then? Even though Matthews was an absolute no-show coach last round, I cannot expect him to allow his side to lay low for yet another round. Heads will roll if it does.
The Bombers are playing with something the Lions are not right now and that is gusto. Take the points and the happier team at just a little less than normal stakes.
PICK: ESSENDON BOMBERS +10 (medium)
HeadOverHeart FromNowOn - Click Here
Kicks - 227 to 165
Handballs - 167 to 124
Possessions - 394 to 289
Marks - 108 to 72
That's all you need to know about this game. Brisbane are rubbish.
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