The Lippsman Split

This is crazy, Lost every single game so far. Hopefully it turns around soon or i'll pack it up.

I’m off it. 

Am starting to think the famed Split left us when its instigator departed…..

Its a possibility. The strategy is sound. But man it's off to a terrible start. Last season started bad too.

Wild and Sens in play tonight. I believe both teams are capable. Do or die!

I think the Sens have a shot - they won’t be disheartened after the first game and Toronto are always flakey. The Wild not so much…..

This system relies on some semblance of parity within the league. First round this year is all good versus shit. 

@topcatt89_OLD_11887

Must be same case last year. 

I think this system would work a lot better in round2, 

@MIZARD

 I guess I'll find out. Between R1 last year and this year I took an absolute ass whooping. 

We finally got one! +207 at that and sweat free

Current summary:

STL +170 

OTT +147 

MIN +217 

MTL +165 

STL +170 

EDM +134 

OTT +149 

MIN +207 

1-7

-4.93u 

More plays to come round 1

@topcatt89_OLD_11887

 With the exception of Montreal, Not sure I agree with that.  None of the top 3 in each Conference is anything but a Legit Cup Contender, so that leaves only the WC's to validate that argument.  Senators had 1 less point in the overall standings to the defending Cup Champ Panthers.  St Louis and Minnesota the same.  Thats tough to get to a "good vs shit" argument when one of the Cup Faves all season is only 1 point better than the WC's.

It is more attributed to either normal variance, or advantages the Home team is now exploiting, post Covid season.  Looking at recent data for all Round 1 Game 1 games, the 5 cups post-Covid Home Teams went 28-12.  5 seasons prior to Covid season, Home teams went 21-19 Round 1 Game 1.  21-19 makes the Lipps-Split very profitable, because half your Wins do not require you to bet on a team twice.  28-12 means lots more bets on Game 2 dogs.

The playoffs/seeding formats are the same from 2015-2025, and the WC's in 2015 were all within 11 or less points than the Conf Champ #1 seed, and within or had more points than multiple Conf Seeds.  Maybe with all the AI & Analytics being used, Coaches are able to better exploit "last change" and gain more and more favorable matchups. 

Dunno what to attribute this to, but the data clearly shows a new trend post Covid season giving Home team some kind of advantage, or we are just in a portion of the data population where it skews towards Home team dominance, and we'll see a shift in the opposite direction in coming years, making the Split profitable again.  All data set populations have variance - go flip a coin 100 times, and you'll see.

Here's the data:

2025 Home team 6-2 Round 1 Game 1

2024 Home team 7-1 Round 1 Game 1

2023 Home team 2-6 Round 1 Game 1

2022 Home team 6-2 Round 1 Game 1

2021 Home team 7-1 Round 1 Game 1

2020 Covid Season

2019 Home team 4-4 Round 1 Game 1

2018 Home team 6-2 Round 1 Game 1

2017 Home team 3-5 Round 1 Game 1

2016 Home team 5-3 Round 1 Game 1

2015 Home team 3-5 Round 1 Game 1

@dyamarik

i was going to add that but didn't want to pile on. It does seem the no home ice advantage is a thing of the past. Be it technology or new fans, seems like they figured something out to make home ice a plus.

This may be the year, yes.

@topcatt89_OLD_11887 

Agree, the data looks like something is amiss with Home Ice.  Maybe a side effect of the Vaccine is better home ice advantage... 

Now we degenerate gamblers gotta figure it out. 

good luck going forward cat 

MTL is the only play tonight?

"If the dog loses the first game you take them no matter what the line is in game 2 as long as there are no 1st liner injuries"

EDM would be a play according to Mr. Lipp, respectfully. 

@triplee2385

Let’s GOOOO!!!!