TOURNAMENT: 111-70-6 (BIG PLAY: 40-21-5)
FUTURES: 4-1
Another smashing day, though I'm not going to use that word (smash) for any more plays. Honestly as I stated I just get overly excited for the SMASH plays but I have ended up wagering more on certain BIG PLAYS. So it's all about load management and I don't want someone to come in here and think just b/c it's a smash play it will hit at a much higher clip than a big play. So I'm retiring the word SMASH from posting plays (might use another superlative or not).
Today we enter July and if you didn't rake profits from the World Cup thread in June, fear not, we will be doing the same in July. I am short on time today so I'm going to post what I can, I will certainly be back for the United States game later.
The first game is your classic David (DR Congo) vs. Goliath (England). The always overrated and underperforming England take on a DR Congo team that few know anything about, and many question why they are even here. But the answer to that can be seen in their defense, as they held both Portugal and Colombia to a single goal, the former of which they ended up tying.
Consider that DR Congo haven’t been beaten by more than one goal in a competitive setting since March 2022, so they are no easy out for anyone. Also consider that time and again, England plays DOWN to competition. That's over MANY years, not just over this past year.
Seven of England’s last nine matches produced under 2.5 goals and thirteen of DR Congo’s last 16 games produced under 2.5 goals, so the goals will also be at a premium. Again, I'm not concerned with who starts for England, but rather which defense they will face and what team can actually frustrate and disrupt them; today that will be DR Congo.
The crowd will be hugely pro-England, but the lift they will need will be muted by the struggle they have to find a goal to get the supporters behind them. The longer the game goes and England doesn't score, the more tense and restless the crowd will become. And six of the last eight goals scored by England came after half-time, so it might be expected.
DR CONGO +1.5 (-115): I know, not the sexy pick but I think the one that gets over the finish line. The super early start plus the tendency for not scoring for England but somehow getting through the group stages, sets this up nicely. I'm not sure if there will be extra time, but this is a play for regulation time only.
UNDER .5 FH (+176): OK, gonna make this an official play but will have to hold my breath for the entire first half. These usually don't come through but again, this is a super early start on a Tuesday, the guys will be a bit lethargic imo coming out. If not, then I will be proven wrong but not all of these games are going to cash to the obvious side.
Those are what I am going to start the day with. Both of the next two games I think are more squarely set for analysis so I will try to get back to the thread when I can. I don't have a crystal ball but if I did I'd love to see a 1-0 England win with that goal coming in the 2nd half. But for now I am going to cash an early under and hope the second half will also go according to plan. As always, tail or fade, good luck to all...
nice Defense by england!
, meant Congo not Ghana 
. Once again nice job, sat this one out but like you said if your losses are the + money bets much easier to wash off and move on to the next one..... still a long way to go with 20+ games left.....
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