Way too🙃 EARLY week 1🏈 Investments 💰💰

Yes , sometimes for sure ...Real guessing game , these numbers are just a starting point for handicapping the possible spread. 

I try to factor in many things when determining HF.....travel , weather , point in schedule etc ..

MGM ...They have some unique totals across the board at all the skill positions...Was shocked when I saw 799.5 -125 , especially after the monster playoff game he racked up ..

...It's 875.5 + at most places from what I've seen ....Almost took it a week early for $100 here at Seneca Buffalo ( Bet Rivers) at 875.5 +100 ....

I'm intrestee to see where he goes where in Buffalo homer laden fantasy drafts if he's going 4th round elsewhere.....

Highly recommend Isiah McKenzie in the Last round or real late ....Could have a fantastic season in the slot ...They brought in Crowder to compete but he's barely practiced , while McKenzie has stood out almost everyday as one of Allen's most frequent target ...

Can you give me some insights on Commies HFA? I mostly use nfelo home tracker and this one for example is way off...travel can't be that big of an issue, same with weather and schedule (I think)...

McKenzie is going undrafted in a lot of leagues. Never really higher than the last round.. I'm well over 400 drafts in. I think a lot of Bengals players in particular are being way overdrafted. 

@DoubleUp4Life

 Do you think a home team can have a disadvantage playing at home? Meaning a negative contribution to the spread? Or is the minimum always 0.0?

@Charon84

 No idea what to do with the COMMIES this season ....Heading into last season I thought they were in the hunt for the NFC ...Things might have been much better if Fitz magic stayed healthy ( probably not ) ....

I wouldn't worry too much about Home Field for any team week 1.....Tend to reward more down the road when travel and physical play the precious game factor in .....

Definitely take away points from the home team as well in different scenarios.....Example the BILLS fans used to eat them alive when they were bad., home field they could be anywhere from -3.2 to +3. .

@CaseyMcGehee

 Whoever starts in the slot for the BILLS is going to catch a lot of balls ....McKenzie has a huge leg up on Crowder so far in camp ...IMO the Bills were a much better team last year with Isaiah than Beasley ....The 2nd Patriots game in New England was the prime example ( McKenzie was featured  and went off ) ....  Dude is one of the best athletes on the field , if you're ever bored watch some videos of him playing QB in practice vs the BILLS starting defense  ( wouldn't be suprised if we see him line up behind center on gadget plays this season ) ..McKenzie was used like Lamar, Mahomes and Kyler Murray the week before the BILLS faced those qbs.  The film footage is very impressive 

Updated Week 1 Point Spread Ratings 

Ratings are for week 1 ONLY , not for future or hypothetical matchups ..

Suggested plays are 2.8+ points off actually line 

BILLS 99.9  RAMS 96 HF +2.9 

BILLS -1.     Line. BILLS -2

RAVENS 94.  *JETS  87. HF +2.8

RAVENS -4.2   Line  RAVENS -6 

PANTHERS. 91.1.  HF +3.2. BROWNS 90

PANTHERS -4.3.    LINE  PANTHERS -1.5 

COLTS  96.   *TEXANS 84.7  HF+3

COLTS -8.3.      Line  COLTS -8.5

COMMIES 89.3. HF +2.9.   JAGUARS 88

COMMIES -4.2    Line  COMMIES -4 

DOLPHINS 92.5  HF +3.2. PATRIOTS 92.3

DOLPHINS -3.4    Line. DOLPHINS -2.5

SAINTS  91.8.  *FALCONS 84.3 HF +2.5

SAINTS -5     Line SANITS -5

@DoubleUp4Life

 Thanks for the reply.

This is a very specific example :p I don't have time to dig that up for every team in every scenario (which of course would be the best thing for handicapping purpose). That's why I make a model based on metrics/stats that are easy available on the internet without doing a lot of digging. The last component I need to create an Excel-formula for is the HFA. So I thougt nfl elo was a good start point. But then one last issue comes up...

HFA is around 50% less in divisional games. But how do you calculate the HFA-points when a team has a negative HFA? I.e. home team has average HFA of -1; is the negative HFA also 50% less resulting in -0.5? Or does it become even more negative like -1.5? And what to do with a team that has HFA of 0?

Mmmmm.....my lines for the same games:

Bills at Rams / Bills -0.5

Ravens at Jets / Ravens -2.0

Colts at Texans / Texans -1.0 (what goes wrong here because I can't agree)

Jaguars at Commanders / PK

Patriots at Dolpins / Dolphins -1.5

Saints at Falcons / Saints -4.5

EAGLES 94. *LIONS 87.5 HF +2.5

EAGLES -4. Line -4

BENGALS 94.3 HF +2.8 STEELERS 91.5

BENGALS -5.6.  . Line -6.5

49ERS 95 . * BEARS 85.6 HF +2.7

49ERS-6 3. . Line -6.5 

PACKERS 94.7. *VIKINGS 92.6 HT +3

VIKINGS -0.9 . Line Packers -1.5

CHIEFS 96.7.  CARDINALS 90.4 HF +3

CHIEFS -3.3. Line-3

CHARGERS 95.9.HF +2  RAIDERS 94.2

CHARGERS 3.7.     Line -3.5

TITANS 90.2 HF +2.6 GIANTS 90.1

TITANS -2.7  . Line GIANTS +6

BUCCANEERS 97 . *COWBOYS 93 HF +2.9

BUCCS -1.1  Line -2

BRONCOS 94.3. *SEAHAWKS 86. HF +3

BRONCOS -5.3. Line -5

@DoubleUp4Life

 Good luck my brother from another mother but same year brother!