need me to explain mathematically why i am correct?? You wanna be my bookie? set it up for me to be able to trust you and im in.
If he let's it ride and Dallas covers he will have lost $36.00 letting it ride your way correct? Now my way If he bets half of his potential winning bankroll with a titans cover on Dallas...Roughly $2300 and Titans still covers he is still up 2,530.00 Correct? 2300 lost on Dallas straight up minus 10% juice equals a lost of 2530.00 subtracted from his winnings of $4634.00 still nets him a profit of 2,104.00 correct? Now if Dallas wins and covers he wins $2300 dollars on his straight up bet on Dallas correct? He's in a win win situation doing it this way with NO RISK just sit back and enjoy the game because you are a guaranteed a couple grand either way.....Now Your mathematical explanation please statfreak?
The mistake was made when he included this last game that plays at a different time/day from the rest.
If you place 10 teamers with the mentality to always hedge the 10th game then you are paying double juice and should have just excluded the last game.
Simple explanation, lets use a 4 teamer with -110 games.
-you bet $10 to win $100
- you win the first 3 games and have a MNF game pending... you bet $55 to make sure you get the same $100 potencial winnings back.
if you win the parlay you get: $100 - $55 = $45 profit
if you lose the parlay and win the single bet you get: +$50 - 10 = $40
- If instead of playing a four teamer you had bet a 3 teamer you would have made $60
Just eliminate the last leg of the parlay if you are going to hedge and pay more juice
0
Quote Originally Posted by justliketoplay:
Quote Originally Posted by statfreak:
Quote Originally Posted by justliketoplay:
Quote Originally Posted by statfreak:
this shouldnt ever be a question. Let it ride
Need a bookie?
need me to explain mathematically why i am correct?? You wanna be my bookie? set it up for me to be able to trust you and im in.
If he let's it ride and Dallas covers he will have lost $36.00 letting it ride your way correct? Now my way If he bets half of his potential winning bankroll with a titans cover on Dallas...Roughly $2300 and Titans still covers he is still up 2,530.00 Correct? 2300 lost on Dallas straight up minus 10% juice equals a lost of 2530.00 subtracted from his winnings of $4634.00 still nets him a profit of 2,104.00 correct? Now if Dallas wins and covers he wins $2300 dollars on his straight up bet on Dallas correct? He's in a win win situation doing it this way with NO RISK just sit back and enjoy the game because you are a guaranteed a couple grand either way.....Now Your mathematical explanation please statfreak?
The mistake was made when he included this last game that plays at a different time/day from the rest.
If you place 10 teamers with the mentality to always hedge the 10th game then you are paying double juice and should have just excluded the last game.
Simple explanation, lets use a 4 teamer with -110 games.
-you bet $10 to win $100
- you win the first 3 games and have a MNF game pending... you bet $55 to make sure you get the same $100 potencial winnings back.
if you win the parlay you get: $100 - $55 = $45 profit
if you lose the parlay and win the single bet you get: +$50 - 10 = $40
- If instead of playing a four teamer you had bet a 3 teamer you would have made $60
Just eliminate the last leg of the parlay if you are going to hedge and pay more juice
The funny thing is I think the people arguing both sides are right in a way.
Yes mathematically, if you are just going to hedge the last game, then you just shouldn't bet it, mathematically. But mathematics also isn't real life.
Let's be honest if you're betting a 10-teamer, it's not a ticket of carefully considered and studiously analyzed picks...it's a LOTTO ticket. You pick the 10 teams instead of the 9 because you want to see a $36 bet with a bigger payout, nobody is expecting to win. But then all of a sudden you go 9-0 and now there is a big profit on the table.
If you were playing the Powerball or whatever it is for say 500 million, and you had the first 6 out of 7 numbers right and were offered a chance to take 10 million before the 7th # is drawn, would you take the 10mil or risk getting nothing because mathematically it's the right thing to do? (disclaimer: don't know the true American lotto odds/numbers but you get my point lol)
Personally I try to incorporate both into my thinking, and the fact is it's a different situation than it was when he placed the bet. I also try to think of betting/situations as an investment. The way I look at it, you can not hedge and have a 50% chance at a ~12700% ROI, 50% chance at -100% ROI...or you can hedge and take a 100% chance at a ~6700% ROI.
No brainer, take the money, hedge.
0
The funny thing is I think the people arguing both sides are right in a way.
Yes mathematically, if you are just going to hedge the last game, then you just shouldn't bet it, mathematically. But mathematics also isn't real life.
Let's be honest if you're betting a 10-teamer, it's not a ticket of carefully considered and studiously analyzed picks...it's a LOTTO ticket. You pick the 10 teams instead of the 9 because you want to see a $36 bet with a bigger payout, nobody is expecting to win. But then all of a sudden you go 9-0 and now there is a big profit on the table.
If you were playing the Powerball or whatever it is for say 500 million, and you had the first 6 out of 7 numbers right and were offered a chance to take 10 million before the 7th # is drawn, would you take the 10mil or risk getting nothing because mathematically it's the right thing to do? (disclaimer: don't know the true American lotto odds/numbers but you get my point lol)
Personally I try to incorporate both into my thinking, and the fact is it's a different situation than it was when he placed the bet. I also try to think of betting/situations as an investment. The way I look at it, you can not hedge and have a 50% chance at a ~12700% ROI, 50% chance at -100% ROI...or you can hedge and take a 100% chance at a ~6700% ROI.
The funny thing is I think the people arguing both sides are right in a way.
Yes mathematically, if you are just going to hedge the last game, then you just shouldn't bet it, mathematically. But mathematics also isn't real life.
Let's be honest if you're betting a 10-teamer, it's not a ticket of carefully considered and studiously analyzed picks...it's a LOTTO ticket. You pick the 10 teams instead of the 9 because you want to see a $36 bet with a bigger payout, nobody is expecting to win. But then all of a sudden you go 9-0 and now there is a big profit on the table.
If you were playing the Powerball or whatever it is for say 500 million, and you had the first 6 out of 7 numbers right and were offered a chance to take 10 million before the 7th # is drawn, would you take the 10mil or risk getting nothing because mathematically it's the right thing to do? (disclaimer: don't know the true American lotto odds/numbers but you get my point lol)
Personally I try to incorporate both into my thinking, and the fact is it's a different situation than it was when he placed the bet. I also try to think of betting/situations as an investment. The way I look at it, you can not hedge and have a 50% chance at a ~12700% ROI, 50% chance at -100% ROI...or you can hedge and take a 100% chance at a ~6700% ROI.
No brainer, take the money, hedge.
This is a really accurate description of the situation. Hedging is definitely a -EV move long term, but when you can hedge and still guarantee a decent chunk of change (relative to your normal risk size/win size), it's hard not to just cash in and make some cash.
But the math people who say hedging is not the right move are 100% correct and leaving the game off altogether gives you a chance to wager whatever you want on the game, or just take the smaller pay out to begin with, but most average bettors (like most of us here) are usually not thinking that far ahead when placing a 10 teamer.
0
Quote Originally Posted by dcp1985:
The funny thing is I think the people arguing both sides are right in a way.
Yes mathematically, if you are just going to hedge the last game, then you just shouldn't bet it, mathematically. But mathematics also isn't real life.
Let's be honest if you're betting a 10-teamer, it's not a ticket of carefully considered and studiously analyzed picks...it's a LOTTO ticket. You pick the 10 teams instead of the 9 because you want to see a $36 bet with a bigger payout, nobody is expecting to win. But then all of a sudden you go 9-0 and now there is a big profit on the table.
If you were playing the Powerball or whatever it is for say 500 million, and you had the first 6 out of 7 numbers right and were offered a chance to take 10 million before the 7th # is drawn, would you take the 10mil or risk getting nothing because mathematically it's the right thing to do? (disclaimer: don't know the true American lotto odds/numbers but you get my point lol)
Personally I try to incorporate both into my thinking, and the fact is it's a different situation than it was when he placed the bet. I also try to think of betting/situations as an investment. The way I look at it, you can not hedge and have a 50% chance at a ~12700% ROI, 50% chance at -100% ROI...or you can hedge and take a 100% chance at a ~6700% ROI.
No brainer, take the money, hedge.
This is a really accurate description of the situation. Hedging is definitely a -EV move long term, but when you can hedge and still guarantee a decent chunk of change (relative to your normal risk size/win size), it's hard not to just cash in and make some cash.
But the math people who say hedging is not the right move are 100% correct and leaving the game off altogether gives you a chance to wager whatever you want on the game, or just take the smaller pay out to begin with, but most average bettors (like most of us here) are usually not thinking that far ahead when placing a 10 teamer.
Just hedge it to win $1,000 on Dal. $36 to $3,600 is nice. Clearly $1,000 is also nice too. Winning 9 teams is amazing. Don't come all this way and leave with nothing.
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Just hedge it to win $1,000 on Dal. $36 to $3,600 is nice. Clearly $1,000 is also nice too. Winning 9 teams is amazing. Don't come all this way and leave with nothing.
I really like this option too...you take the risk off the table, guaranteed a beauty ROI regardless of what happens, and leverage your position to go for the kill and an even bigger payday. You can only do this because you have the points, wouldn't have been able to if you had the Cowboys spread.
This game screams two mediocre teams that will go full conservative/play not to lose as soon as they get the lead. Probably coming down to a FG at the end either way.
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Quote Originally Posted by takethecannolis:
If you bet $2K on Dallas moneyline....
if Cowboys win and cover....+ 1000
if Cowboys lose....+ 2000
if Cowboys win, but don’t cover....+ 5000
I really like this option too...you take the risk off the table, guaranteed a beauty ROI regardless of what happens, and leverage your position to go for the kill and an even bigger payday. You can only do this because you have the points, wouldn't have been able to if you had the Cowboys spread.
This game screams two mediocre teams that will go full conservative/play not to lose as soon as they get the lead. Probably coming down to a FG at the end either way.
Right now Dallas is -5.5 for (-105) A bet on Dallas -5.5 Hedge Wager Amount: 2424.73Hedge Wager Potential Winnings: 2309.27If Initial Bet Wins, Grand Total: 2209.27If Hedge Bet Wins, Grand Total: 2209.27
So you are screwed only if Dallas wins by 5....
If you buy half a point and take that down to
Dallas -5 (-120) then
Hedge Wager Amount: 2582.18 Hedge Wager Potential Winnings: 2151.82 If Initial Bet Wins, Grand Total: 2051.82 If Hedge Bet Wins, Grand Total: 2051.82
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Quote Originally Posted by arrgy:
Right now Dallas is -5.5 for (-105) A bet on Dallas -5.5 Hedge Wager Amount: 2424.73Hedge Wager Potential Winnings: 2309.27If Initial Bet Wins, Grand Total: 2209.27If Hedge Bet Wins, Grand Total: 2209.27
So you are screwed only if Dallas wins by 5....
If you buy half a point and take that down to
Dallas -5 (-120) then
Hedge Wager Amount: 2582.18 Hedge Wager Potential Winnings: 2151.82 If Initial Bet Wins, Grand Total: 2051.82 If Hedge Bet Wins, Grand Total: 2051.82
thanks everyone for your input i really appreciate it. i had a 2 team teaser to win 200 with the patriots from last night and an open slot i added dallas +1 to that teaser. I also have 330 to win 300 on dallas -4 1/2 and i also bet 1100 to win 500 on dallas ml. I have titans +5 in parlay so im hoping dallas wins but doesn't cover. Worst case scenario i only win 1000 because of my dallas bets...the greed is real,
I have faith titans can cover if not ill gladly take the grand.
all my bets in my parlay were moneylines and i was confident in all of them but im an idiot and threw in titans spread to make it a 10 teamer which was my mistake because it was the only play i was confident in and i wasn;t at all...like people said above i didnt expect it to come down to this game so i should have just done a 9 teamer from the start
my parlay is:
chargers ml
texans ml
titans +5
panthers ml
chiefs ml
falcons ml
vikings ml
bears ml
pats ml
saints ml
im considering adding another 500-1000 on dallas ml
0
thanks everyone for your input i really appreciate it. i had a 2 team teaser to win 200 with the patriots from last night and an open slot i added dallas +1 to that teaser. I also have 330 to win 300 on dallas -4 1/2 and i also bet 1100 to win 500 on dallas ml. I have titans +5 in parlay so im hoping dallas wins but doesn't cover. Worst case scenario i only win 1000 because of my dallas bets...the greed is real,
I have faith titans can cover if not ill gladly take the grand.
all my bets in my parlay were moneylines and i was confident in all of them but im an idiot and threw in titans spread to make it a 10 teamer which was my mistake because it was the only play i was confident in and i wasn;t at all...like people said above i didnt expect it to come down to this game so i should have just done a 9 teamer from the start
my parlay is:
chargers ml
texans ml
titans +5
panthers ml
chiefs ml
falcons ml
vikings ml
bears ml
pats ml
saints ml
im considering adding another 500-1000 on dallas ml
thanks everyone for your input i really appreciate it. i had a 2 team teaser to win 200 with the patriots from last night and an open slot i added dallas +1 to that teaser. I also have 330 to win 300 on dallas -4 1/2 and i also bet 1100 to win 500 on dallas ml. I have titans +5 in parlay so im hoping dallas wins but doesn't cover. Worst case scenario i only win 1000 because of my dallas bets...the greed is real,I have faith titans can cover if not ill gladly take the grand.all my bets in my parlay were moneylines and i was confident in all of them but im an idiot and threw in titans spread to make it a 10 teamer which was my mistake because it was the only play i was confident in and i wasn;t at all...like people said above i didnt expect it to come down to this game so i should have just done a 9 teamer from the startmy parlay is:chargers mltexans mltitans +5panthers mlchiefs mlfalcons mlvikings mlbears mlpats mlsaints mlim considering adding another 500-1000 on dallas ml
Quote Originally Posted by JERRYROC:
thanks everyone for your input i really appreciate it. i had a 2 team teaser to win 200 with the patriots from last night and an open slot i added dallas +1 to that teaser. I also have 330 to win 300 on dallas -4 1/2 and i also bet 1100 to win 500 on dallas ml. I have titans +5 in parlay so im hoping dallas wins but doesn't cover. Worst case scenario i only win 1000 because of my dallas bets...the greed is real,I have faith titans can cover if not ill gladly take the grand.all my bets in my parlay were moneylines and i was confident in all of them but im an idiot and threw in titans spread to make it a 10 teamer which was my mistake because it was the only play i was confident in and i wasn;t at all...like people said above i didnt expect it to come down to this game so i should have just done a 9 teamer from the startmy parlay is:chargers mltexans mltitans +5panthers mlchiefs mlfalcons mlvikings mlbears mlpats mlsaints mlim considering adding another 500-1000 on dallas ml
Why not buy the half point and take Dallas at -5 for 2582, you are guaranteed $2000 for any score other than dallas by 5. If Dallas wins by 5, you push that bet and push one leg of the parlay and still come out ahead.
0
Quote Originally Posted by JERRYROC:
thanks everyone for your input i really appreciate it. i had a 2 team teaser to win 200 with the patriots from last night and an open slot i added dallas +1 to that teaser. I also have 330 to win 300 on dallas -4 1/2 and i also bet 1100 to win 500 on dallas ml. I have titans +5 in parlay so im hoping dallas wins but doesn't cover. Worst case scenario i only win 1000 because of my dallas bets...the greed is real,I have faith titans can cover if not ill gladly take the grand.all my bets in my parlay were moneylines and i was confident in all of them but im an idiot and threw in titans spread to make it a 10 teamer which was my mistake because it was the only play i was confident in and i wasn;t at all...like people said above i didnt expect it to come down to this game so i should have just done a 9 teamer from the startmy parlay is:chargers mltexans mltitans +5panthers mlchiefs mlfalcons mlvikings mlbears mlpats mlsaints mlim considering adding another 500-1000 on dallas ml
Quote Originally Posted by JERRYROC:
thanks everyone for your input i really appreciate it. i had a 2 team teaser to win 200 with the patriots from last night and an open slot i added dallas +1 to that teaser. I also have 330 to win 300 on dallas -4 1/2 and i also bet 1100 to win 500 on dallas ml. I have titans +5 in parlay so im hoping dallas wins but doesn't cover. Worst case scenario i only win 1000 because of my dallas bets...the greed is real,I have faith titans can cover if not ill gladly take the grand.all my bets in my parlay were moneylines and i was confident in all of them but im an idiot and threw in titans spread to make it a 10 teamer which was my mistake because it was the only play i was confident in and i wasn;t at all...like people said above i didnt expect it to come down to this game so i should have just done a 9 teamer from the startmy parlay is:chargers mltexans mltitans +5panthers mlchiefs mlfalcons mlvikings mlbears mlpats mlsaints mlim considering adding another 500-1000 on dallas ml
Why not buy the half point and take Dallas at -5 for 2582, you are guaranteed $2000 for any score other than dallas by 5. If Dallas wins by 5, you push that bet and push one leg of the parlay and still come out ahead.
def. hedge Dallas ML before game so you win something!!!
but....... maybe do an "in game hedge bet" as well. Hope Titans score first and then bet dallas +points. Hopefully get both Teams at plus +points........ whatever you do WIN something by hedging! Congrats!!!
0
def. hedge Dallas ML before game so you win something!!!
but....... maybe do an "in game hedge bet" as well. Hope Titans score first and then bet dallas +points. Hopefully get both Teams at plus +points........ whatever you do WIN something by hedging! Congrats!!!
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