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The Most Important And Profitable Stat In NFL Betting - Week Five

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Posted: #101
No I don't care where the thread goes. The point i was trying to make before this exploded is that if you can predict and handicap who will have a better yppa you can win. Everyone has tried to predict who will score more points for years, everyone has lost. This is just a different way of looking at picking a winner. Instead of focusing on all sorts of stats comparisons trends and all that mess I'm showing you how if you put some time into handicapping which qb will have a better passing game per attempt odds are your on the right side
of things. The games I listed in the top five and bottom five were a place to simply start looking.
 
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Posted: #102
Quote Originally Posted by vegasjack2:

thanks

The Most Important And Profitable Stat In NFL Betting - Week Five

By: VegasJack

Last week I introduced most of you to the most important and profitable stat when it comes to predicting winners in the NFL. For those of you who missed out, Ill give a little refresher.

I recently got an email from an oddsmaker who I have worked with and now swap information with. He passed along a statistic to me that he has begun tracking. He claims that this is the single most important stat in determining who wins week to week in the NFL.

What is the stat? Passing Yards? Rushing Yards? Turnover Ratio?

No, no and no.

The oddsmaker in discussion has found that the single most important stat in predicting the winning team in the NFL is Pass Yards Per Attempt.

Disappointed?

I know it may not seem like the most exciting stat, and some of you may have never heard about it before. For those of you who have heard about it, you more then likely have not paid attention to it. When I received his email, I admit, I was very sceptical. I did not believe the results he was boasting, but sure enough after researching myself, I found out that this is amazingly accurate in predicting the winning team.

So far this season, the team who has more Pass Yards Per Attempt has gone…

53-11 (.828%) ATS +$4,090 (TO WIN $100 PER GAME)

52-12 (.812%) SU +$4,965 (TO WIN $100 PER GAME)

In week four teams with a higher YPPA went 15-1 ATS and 10-6 SU.

The top five rated teams going into last week went 3-1 ATS and 3-1 SU with #4 Houston beating #5 Pittsburgh. The biggest mis-match from last week was Green Bay -12.5 over Denver which cashed easily. The upset pick was Arizona +1 vs. New York which was not so lucky.

Week Five Top Five:

#1 New England (9.5) -10 vs. #20 New York Jets (6.5)

#2 Green Bay (9.0) -5.5 at. #24 Atlanta (6.3)

#3 Tennessee (8.4) +3.5 at. #10 Pittsburgh (7.6)

#4 Carolina (8.3) +6.5 vs. #9 New Orleans (7.7)

#5 Houston (8.2) -6 vs. #12 Oakland (7.4)

Biggest Difference:

This week, the biggest difference of YPPA is found in the New York Seattle match-up. New York is ranked 8th with 7.9 YPPA. Seattle is ranked 28th with 5.5 YPPA. That is a difference of 2.4 YPPA, much less then the Green Bay Denver match-up last week which featured a discrepancy of 4.4. The Giants are listed as 9 point favorites but play into the very profitable West Coast traveling to the East Coast angle. If you remember back to Week Two, Seattle played in a similar game playing at 1PM in Pittsburgh. They were shut out 24-0.

Upset Pick:

The clear upset pick is Carolina at home to New Orleans. Carolina is averaging 0.8 yards more per pass attempt then opponent New Orleans. Since this game is already in the top five, I will pass along another upset play. Buffalo at home is getting 3 points. They are averaging 7.1 YPPA this season compared to their opponent Philadelphia’s rating of 7.5 YPPA. However, when playing at home, Buffalo has averaged 7.5 YPPA compared to Philadelphia’s rating of 7.0 on the road. The sides are flip flopped. The Bills could very well be worth a look this Sunday.

Good Luck in Week Five,

-VJ
 
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Posted: #103
Quote Originally Posted by vegasjack2:

Christ, I never said this was predictive or anything to that extent and I have people writting articles on other websites about it? Good lord do people take this forum WAY to seriously. All I said was it is extremely interesting. Going back to 2003 I did find a PREDICTIVE stat in regards to YPPA but I am not going to post that here as I couldnt imagine the uproar and bullshit that will be posted then.

If it's not predictive then what use does it have?  It's like saying we would all be rich if we had Sunday morning access to the Monday morning box scores.   
 
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Posted: #104
im with you jack
 
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Posted: #105
Quote Originally Posted by laceumup:

Yards/Pass Attempt Correlation to Victory in 2011 NFL

Posted on

Recently I read a post on a forum that I used to frequent that said the poster said was “introducing us” to an incredible stat to predicting winners:  Yards/Pass Attempt.

I laughed at this statement.  And I take serious issue w/ his premise:

#1 – this stat is far from new, innovative or noteworthy – it’s been around for a while now and is a fairly common stat.  Yes, it’s interesting, yes, it’s valuable, yes it’s a good stat.  But no, it’s not new and no, this poster certainly isn’t “introducing” it.  (You’ve got to love it when forum posters try to take credit for things that aren’t theirs.)  More than likely, this guy just found out about the stat himself and so it’s new to him, but he must have been taking a Rip van Winkle nap for the last decade when the stat really was new.

#2 – there is nothing “predictive” about his stat – he claims that teams who have more yds/pass attempt are 53-11 (83%) ATS.  This is 100% untrue.  By my records I show teams who come out of a game with a better yds/pass attempt than their opponent in that game to be 45-17 ATS (73%).  But the point is that it is retrodictively looking at a game.  In other words, it is not looking at a game to be played in the future and saying:  The team who has averaged the most yds/pass attempt will win 73% of the time.  The 73% is a correlation of the stats during that game to victory.  In other words, if two teams met on Sunday, and during the game one team averaged 7 yds/attempt in the game and the other averaged 6, the team who averaged 7 yds/attempt will win the game ATS 73% of the time.  This is not “predictive”, it’s retrodictive.

#3 – there are plenty of other same-game, in-game stats which correlate much closer to victory than the 73% that yds/pass attempt correlates:

  • Teams who average fewer yds/point in the game are 51-10 ATS (84%).
  • Teams who convert more red zone trips into touchdowns in the game are 37-7 ATS (84%).
  • Teams who score more touchdowns during the game in the game are 44-6 ATS (88%).

You might as well add this one also:

  • Teams who score more points in the game are 64-0 SU and 48-14 ATS (77%).

This retrodictive analysis is fun to toy with, but the whole goal is to create a predictive model.

Want to know the truth?

This season teams who are averaging more yds/pass on the season than their opponent heading into the game are just 24-23-1 (51%) ATS this season in that game!

Whoa, what the hell happened to this holy grail stat? I thought it was 83% like the thread starter said???

His original premise didn’t even pass the smell test.  Everyone searches long and hard for NFL winners.  Do you honestly think that there is 1 stat as basic as yds/pass attempt that could tell you the winner in over 80% of NFL games?

If there was, don’t you think someone would be using it by now and all of the books would have adjusted off that stat because it wins so frequently?

It is humorous how naive this uninformed poster was.

Again, there is a HUGE difference between a stat that can predict an outcome “going into the game” vs. a stat that correlates to victory “coming out of the game” (after the game is over).  The first is valuable, the second is just a stat.  Don’t get me wrong, yds/pass attempt is a great and helpful stat to use as part of your analysis, but it is not hitting 83% predictively, it is only at 51%!

The sad part is, there is a ton of misinformation on the internet, and you unfortunately have to check the numbers to make sure someone is truthful.  This type of fact-checking is what got me started in the NFL research game in the first place.  I love to find comments, stats or statements from any online or television media source and debunk them and get to the truth.  While this poster is clearly wrong, who knows how many innocent people he is leading astray with his inaccurate analysis and misrepresentation of the facts.

At least it’s not very hard to set the record straight on this issue:

In 2011, teams who are averaging more passing yds/attempt on the season are a mere 51% ATS, not even enough to break even in the NFL. 

 

So what you are saying is.  If we can predict who will have a better yppa in a individual game then that is worth looking int?  But making a play based on previous averages of this stat is useless? Correct?

 
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Posted: #106

Quote Originally Posted by vegasjack2:

Christ, I never said this was predictive or anything to that extent and I have people writting articles on other websites about it? Good lord do people take this forum WAY to seriously. All I said was it is extremely interesting. Going back to 2003 I did find a PREDICTIVE stat in regards to YPPA but I am not going to post that here as I couldnt imagine the uproar and bullshit that will be posted then.

First off bro I can read and I see what you have said and these people are extremely dumb for jumping on you.  Because they wanna say they know better yet they cant even read.  People are putting words in your mouth and basically saying your an idiot just because you brought a useful stat to the table.  Well.... What the fuck is wrong with you people?  My homie VJack here is just trying to help and share what he thought was a very useful stat.  If its not or there is a better explanation or you have something to add or a way to improve.  Great share your thought and help us out.  But get off your fucking high horse you fucking flamers!  (I wouldve said people but I got in trouble for saying that on here before.)  Damn dont jump down dude throat for trying to help. 

 
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Posted: #107
 
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Posted: #108
Quote Originally Posted by laceumup:

Yards/Pass Attempt Correlation to Victory in 2011 NFL

Posted on

Recently I read a post on a forum that I used to frequent that said the poster said was “introducing us” to an incredible stat to predicting winners:  Yards/Pass Attempt.

I laughed at this statement.  And I take serious issue w/ his premise:

#1 – this stat is far from new, innovative or noteworthy – it’s been around for a while now and is a fairly common stat.  Yes, it’s interesting, yes, it’s valuable, yes it’s a good stat.  But no, it’s not new and no, this poster certainly isn’t “introducing” it.  (You’ve got to love it when forum posters try to take credit for things that aren’t theirs.)  More than likely, this guy just found out about the stat himself and so it’s new to him, but he must have been taking a Rip van Winkle nap for the last decade when the stat really was new.

#2 – there is nothing “predictive” about his stat – he claims that teams who have more yds/pass attempt are 53-11 (83%) ATS.  This is 100% untrue.  By my records I show teams who come out of a game with a better yds/pass attempt than their opponent in that game to be 45-17 ATS (73%).  But the point is that it is retrodictively looking at a game.  In other words, it is not looking at a game to be played in the future and saying:  The team who has averaged the most yds/pass attempt will win 73% of the time.  The 73% is a correlation of the stats during that game to victory.  In other words, if two teams met on Sunday, and during the game one team averaged 7 yds/attempt in the game and the other averaged 6, the team who averaged 7 yds/attempt will win the game ATS 73% of the time.  This is not “predictive”, it’s retrodictive.

#3 – there are plenty of other same-game, in-game stats which correlate much closer to victory than the 73% that yds/pass attempt correlates:

  • Teams who average fewer yds/point in the game are 51-10 ATS (84%).
  • Teams who convert more red zone trips into touchdowns in the game are 37-7 ATS (84%).
  • Teams who score more touchdowns during the game in the game are 44-6 ATS (88%).

You might as well add this one also:

  • Teams who score more points in the game are 64-0 SU and 48-14 ATS (77%).

This retrodictive analysis is fun to toy with, but the whole goal is to create a predictive model.

Want to know the truth?

This season teams who are averaging more yds/pass on the season than their opponent heading into the game are just 24-23-1 (51%) ATS this season in that game!

Whoa, what the hell happened to this holy grail stat? I thought it was 83% like the thread starter said???

His original premise didn’t even pass the smell test.  Everyone searches long and hard for NFL winners.  Do you honestly think that there is 1 stat as basic as yds/pass attempt that could tell you the winner in over 80% of NFL games?

If there was, don’t you think someone would be using it by now and all of the books would have adjusted off that stat because it wins so frequently?

It is humorous how naive this uninformed poster was.

Again, there is a HUGE difference between a stat that can predict an outcome “going into the game” vs. a stat that correlates to victory “coming out of the game” (after the game is over).  The first is valuable, the second is just a stat.  Don’t get me wrong, yds/pass attempt is a great and helpful stat to use as part of your analysis, but it is not hitting 83% predictively, it is only at 51%!

The sad part is, there is a ton of misinformation on the internet, and you unfortunately have to check the numbers to make sure someone is truthful.  This type of fact-checking is what got me started in the NFL research game in the first place.  I love to find comments, stats or statements from any online or television media source and debunk them and get to the truth.  While this poster is clearly wrong, who knows how many innocent people he is leading astray with his inaccurate analysis and misrepresentation of the facts.

At least it’s not very hard to set the record straight on this issue:

In 2011, teams who are averaging more passing yds/attempt on the season are a mere 51% ATS, not even enough to break even in the NFL. 

 

I have another stat to add on top of....

  • Teams who average fewer yds/point in the game are 51-10 ATS (84%).
  • Teams who convert more red zone trips into touchdowns in the game are 37-7 ATS (84%).
  • Teams who score more touchdowns during the game in the game are 44-6 ATS (88%).

Teams who score the most points in a game are 64-0 SU (100%)

 
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Posted: #109
Quote Originally Posted by pacers792:

I call Bull shit. this shit does not work.. you cant predict how many yards per attempt they are going to complete any given sunday. New Orleans covers easily.


Sure you can NO-7.32 YARDS CAR-6.48. Edge goes to NO at +.84 Yards.
 
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Posted: #110
Predicting pass attempts is the same as predicting total yards,or total points,or anything else in the game. You always predict offense and defense no matter what.
 
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Posted: #111
Quote Originally Posted by redskinsnut:


If it's not predictive then what use does it have?  It's like saying we would all be rich if we had Sunday morning access to the Monday morning box scores.   


 Excellent post.....................
 
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Posted: #112
nice thread! BOL
 
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Posted: #113
Quote Originally Posted by Blind_Monkey:

Predicting pass attempts is the same as predicting total yards,or total points,or anything else in the game. You always predict offense and defense no matter what.

 
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Posted: #114
Quote Originally Posted by MJ2345:



OMG Yes you did!!!READ THE FIRST PARAGRAPH OF YOUR TOPIC Jezzzuz hone up!!Should i copy paste again so you can read what you wrote pfft unreal!!


AND I QUOTE!!

By: VegasJack

Last week I introduced most of you to the most important and PROFITABLE stat when it comes to PREDICTING winners in the NFL. For those of you who missed out, Ill give a little refresher.

Now VJ what does that say??Or do you need the definition of PREDICT??

Dude...  you need to chill.  He said he introduced most of you to it.  Clearly you haven't heard of it so you should just STFU.  He never said that he came up with it.  In fact, he mentioned where it came from.  And the dude he got it from didn't "invent" either.  He never said that people who use this stat hit 80% of the time either.

It's a factor that people can take into account when they're making bets.  That's it.  That doesn't mean that other factors shouldn't be considered...  like if the starting QB and RB break their legs in pre-game warm up.  It's not like he guaranteed it would hit 100% of the time.  

Some people's kids...  



 
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Posted: #115
Wow so many haters in this thread. If you don't think its a good stat don't use it. 

Now the people who actually want to see this info have to scroll through 5 pages of flaming and other crap. 
 
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Posted: #116
Quote Originally Posted by PhishBrigade:


Dude...  you need to chill.  He said he introduced most of you to it.  Clearly you haven't heard of it so you should just STFU.  He never said that he came up with it.  In fact, he mentioned where it came from.  And the dude he got it from didn't "invent" either.  He never said that people who use this stat hit 80% of the time either.

It's a factor that people can take into account when they're making bets.  That's it.  That doesn't mean that other factors shouldn't be considered...  like if the starting QB and RB break their legs in pre-game warm up.  It's not like he guaranteed it would hit 100% of the time.  

Some people's kids...  





Obviously you dont know how to read either so you STFU.Its usless info b4 the game no wonder why morons like you lose at betting
 
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Posted: #117
think it helps when you use it with your handcapping,right now i just used it and got CAROLINA +6.5 !   thanks jack
 
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Posted: #118
Quote Originally Posted by topperchris:

Like the info... Who are your plays this weekend?



BUF +3
NYG -9.5
DET -5
PHIL/BUF OVER 50
NYJ/NE OVER 49
 
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Posted: #119

Unreal, what is wrong with you people???  Why are so many people coming in here and attacking VegasJack????  He is trying to help people and you attack him????

If you sat back for a 2nd instead of trying to prove him wrong you would see what he is saying.....

It baffles me how people think they are so smart and try to expose a person for something he isnt saying.....

This trend is crazy, I followed it last week after I saw it and i went 8-1.....

IT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH WHAT HAPPENS IN THEGAME OR WHAT HE THINKS IS GOING TO HAPPEN.....IT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THE STATS OF THE GAME AND DURING THE GAME....

It is simple....call it luck, call it a joke, call it what you want....

All I did was look at each game, and whatever team had more Yards Per Pass Attempt GOING INTO THE GAME profited me alot last week....

I dont understand what you people are talking about turnovers, red zone % and bla bla bla....that has nothing to do with what Vegas Jack is saying....

He isnt saying whoever has more Yards Per Attempt in the game will win, he is saying whoevers HAS MORE PRIOR TO this game will cover....what dont people understand?????

And, if you dont like it and dont believe him who cares???  I didnt believe it either, but when somebody comes on here at says paying attention to this stat was 82% ATS the spread, I said ok, I will take a shot for 1 week....

Well, I went 8-1 last week....and no matter at how much this trend might not make sense or seem untrue, I will give it a chance for another week....

You people look way too much into things and are more worried about calling people out then trying to win and help each other....doesnt make any sense to me...

If this trend continues you could be missing out on alot of good things for weeks to come...

Thanks Vegas, I tailed this last week and did very well...I will give stick with it until it kicks me in the face.....

Best of luck to us all this week

 
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Posted: #120

Quote Originally Posted by MJ2345:

Ok i am going to put these on here going into the games sunday and lets see how they do with YPPA this season so far and see what the ATS record is !!This is just strictly going with who has the most YPPA  if it were only that easy!!

YPPA season-Play
Carolina 8.2  NO 7.7 - Carolina +6.5
Philly 7.5 Buff 7.0 - Philly -2
NYG 7.9 Sea 5.5 -NYG -9.5
Tenn 8.4 Pitt 7.6 -Tenn +3
Cinci 6.6 Jax 4.9-Cinci +1.5
KC 5.7 Indy 5.4-KC +1
AZ 7.5 Minn 5.6 -AZ +2.5
Hous 8.2 Oak 7.6-Hous -6
SF 6.6 TB 6.4-SF-2.5
NE 9.4 NYJ 6.5-NE -9.5
SD 8.0 Den 6.3-SD-4
GB 9.0 ATL 6.4 -GB -5.5
DET 7.4 CHI 6.5-DET-6

 

 

 

MJ did all the games for us....instead of bashing the guy....why dont you wait until the end of the day and see what happens with these games...And true, I think the Indy game would be different result in Painter stats were added and not Collins

 

Even before I looked at this stat for today again I was on Philly, GB, pats, Sd.....makes me feel even better now

 
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Posted: #121
And, if you dont like it and dont believe him who cares???  I didnt believe it either, but when somebody comes on here at says paying attention to this stat was 82% ATS the spread, I said ok, I will take a shot for 1 week....


Letsgopack thats what your not getting its 82% vs the spread after the game.If you take it b4 the game as a poster said above its 51%.This is all i ma saying!!
 
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Posted: #122

Quote Originally Posted by MJ2345:

And, if you dont like it and dont believe him who cares???  I didnt believe it either, but when somebody comes on here at says paying attention to this stat was 82% ATS the spread, I said ok, I will take a shot for 1 week....


Letsgopack thats what your not getting its 82% vs the spread after the game.If you take it b4 the game as a poster said above its 51%.This is all i ma saying!!

 

 

 

 

Then I guess I was misunderstanding him and got lucky....I thought it was referring to prior to the game stats....

I looked at the stat prior to the game last week and did very, very well, maybe I just got lucky....

But, I will try it again this week....

You broke down all the games for us, I guess we will see what happens today and move on from there....

 

 
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Posted: #123
Letgopack,
Give it a rest unless you are gonna read the whole thread the ATS records are after the game is played not b4.This is where hes misinforming people just like yourself.You must have skimmed through it and thought those records were b4 the game.I just dont want anyone to be misinformed!!
 
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Posted: #124
Thanks for the info dude, good luck!
 
 
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Posted: #125

Quote Originally Posted by pacers792:

thats cause its just a tool

you are a tool.

 

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