The Most Important And Profitable Stat In NFL Betting - Week Five

that was good chit my slime but with any stats and systems, it is better to over lap them to filter out the left over winners. 

With my system, I take stats and figure A and I have a list.  I then filtered it with system B which knocks out about half of them.  I continue to add more layers to my listing until I get 3 or 4 games for such week. 

If 3 or 4 teams can carry a weight to 3 or 4 systems combined, that right there is my confidence plays. 

I'm actually looking at something that is sitting at 10-1 in the last 2 weeks right now.  Regardless, pretty niffy stuff going on here. 

 Damn I see you got your hands on the Sports Almanac from back to the future!!!!

Just trying to analyze the YPA average and it's validity looking at the top YPA list:
If you look at the cumulative to date Yards per Attempt leaders:
                          SU      ATS    TD     INT    TD/INT
Brady      9.56     4-1       4-1      14       6         2.33
Rodgers  9.56     5-0       4-1       14      2          7
Manning  9.06     3-2       3-2       11      5         2.2
Shaub     8.4       3-2       3-2       9        5        1.8
Romo     8.38     2-2        1-2-1    7        5        1.4 
Newton  8.30      1-4        4-1      7        6         1.16
Rivers   8.26       4-1       2-3       6        7          .85
Brees   8.08       4-1       3-2       12      5         2.4
Rothlisberger 8.0  3-2    2-3         8       6         1.3
Vick           7.91   1-4    1-4        8        7         1.14

we see that the Yard Per Attempt Leaders correlate to an aggregate 30-19 straight up and 27-21-1 ATS record.

Putting a lot of weight into this stat, one has to realize that the game is being capped according to the one main position QB and obviously the impact of the offensive line giving him time to do his stuff and the person at the receiving end of the ball and perhaps the running game which opens up the passing game. In any case, a purely offensive stat which doesn't account for turnovers and defense which are clearly as much of the game as the offense. Clearly, a good defense will have an obvious impact on the opposing team's offense (which makes me wonder if factoring in a defense's YPA allowed stat would be beneficial).

In also examining the TD/INT ratio for these QBs, I think that you can further fine tune the ATS results by eliminating all but the best ratios (say anything under 2) leaving a list of:
NE, GB, NYG, NO  and winding up with 14-6 ATS (+740 assuming as you did $110/100 bets) which is a heck of a lot better than 27-21-1 ATS (+390)
I'm only suggesting this because you have several QBs with high Yards per Attempt stats but mediocre results and when you consider the TD/INT ration, it becomes apparent why that is.
Maybe it would be worthwhile to look at the YPA comparison and the TD/INT ratio in conjunction.

Anyway, it seems clear to me that the bottom line is that you are attempting to measure the impact of the QB position/offense to the final ATS result in a very simplistic way which actually seems pretty logical to an extent and clearly has some validity according to the above top 10 YPA list.

In any case, thanks very much for pointing out this interesting factor and it is something worthy of following and considering.
 

Vegasjack is a real dumb loser

bring back the discussion