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The Most Important And Profitable Stat In NFL Betting - Week Five

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Posted: #76
i like it 
 
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Posted: #77
Quote Originally Posted by SportsFan9698:

If I understand this correctly, the stats in the game (looking back at the game after it happened) correlate with the cover.

GENIUS

Same as turnover, YPR, etc.


Exactly LOL After the fact doent everyone have 20-20 vision

 
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Posted: #78
Brillant analysis
 
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Posted: #79
Actually whats funny is the only ones i liks differently are Bears.NYJ,Indy,Buff and maybe Tampa
 
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Posted: #80
Interesting write up, I'm gonna keep an eye on that.
 
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Posted: #81

Actually,... If we substitute Painter's stats for Collin's I think Indy would be the pick.

 
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Posted: #82
Quote Originally Posted by puterguy57:

Actually,... If we substitute Painter's stats for Collin's I think Indy would be the pick.



You could be right!!
 
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Posted: #83
Thanks again for all the input, another question if you dont mind.  How do you interpret the differences between teams...i get the math when your getting .3 or -.04 or whatever but how does that translate to what total or side your picking...and correct me if i am wrong but the covers matchup link above shows all this info and does the math for you, unless im not seeing something correctly.  Thanks again for your time.


Nate
 
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Posted: #84
Quote Originally Posted by Sharkysden:


I use both, I weigh more on YPP in the NFL and more on YPR in college.  I compare them to averages and it gives me a good grasp on a teams stats without flooding myself with stats.  

as an example the NFL averages right now are YPP 6.99 YPR 4.16
The avg score is 22.8 rounded to 23, so the avg total is 46, in between 2 key numbers of 45 and 47.  

There's no "system"  you just have to use your best judgement, but you can pull a lot of info from these stats.  

here's an example of a game, since it's the first one on  the stats page I'll use New Orleans @ Carolina.  But remember this is not a system, you still have to factor in situation, injuries, and weather.  But this is a great way to find a teams recent form without scores or record.  

                              YPPO      YPPD    DIFF
New Orleans         7.7          6.3          1.4
Carolina                 8.2          8.5          -0.3

                               YPRO      YPRD     DIFF
New Orleans           4.5          4.6          -0.2
Carolina                   4.1          5.2          -1.1

By looking at the stats I can see both teams excel in passing with Carolina at a slight advantage, but the Saints have the better passing D.   Both teams Rushing D is below average, you can estimate a lot of 1st downs for both teams with New Orleans being better in the passing game.  

I would pass this game because the advantage isn't big enough for me to invest in.  But taking a guess by looking at these stats I would say New Orleans would be a good pick  -3 or less and the Total should be around 48 to 51.



shouldnt you be subtracting yard per attempt NO from yards allowed per attempt NC?  Thats how covers is doing it, your doing it NO to NO and NC to NC... Again im super new to this and am trying to better undertstand the numbers.
 
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Posted: #85

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/?p=34

Posted on https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/?p=34
https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/?p=34#respond

Recently I read a post on a forum that I used to frequent that said the poster said was “introducing us” to an incredible stat to predicting winners:  Yards/Pass Attempt.

I laughed at this statement.  And I take serious issue w/ his premise:

#1 – this stat is far from new, innovative or noteworthy – it’s been around for a while now and is a fairly common stat.  Yes, it’s interesting, yes, it’s valuable, yes it’s a good stat.  But no, it’s not new and no, this poster certainly isn’t “introducing” it.  (You’ve got to love it when forum posters try to take credit for things that aren’t theirs.)  More than likely, this guy just found out about the stat himself and so it’s new to him, but he must have been taking a Rip van Winkle nap for the last decade when the stat really was new.

#2 – there is nothing “predictive” about his stat – he claims that teams who have more yds/pass attempt are 53-11 (83%) ATS.  This is 100% untrue.  By my records I show teams who come out of a game with a better yds/pass attempt than their opponent in that game to be 45-17 ATS (73%).  But the point is that it is retrodictively looking at a game.  In other words, it is not looking at a game to be played in the future and saying:  The team who has averaged the most yds/pass attempt will win 73% of the time.  The 73% is a correlation of the stats during that game to victory.  In other words, if two teams met on Sunday, and during the game one team averaged 7 yds/attempt in the game and the other averaged 6, the team who averaged 7 yds/attempt will win the game ATS 73% of the time.  This is not “predictive”, it’s retrodictive.

#3 – there are plenty of other same-game, in-game stats which correlate much closer to victory than the 73% that yds/pass attempt correlates:

  • Teams who average fewer yds/point in the game are 51-10 ATS (84%).
  • Teams who convert more red zone trips into touchdowns in the game are 37-7 ATS (84%).
  • Teams who score more touchdowns during the game in the game are 44-6 ATS (88%).

You might as well add this one also:

  • Teams who score more points in the game are 64-0 SU and 48-14 ATS (77%).

This retrodictive analysis is fun to toy with, but the whole goal is to create a predictive model.

Want to know the truth?

This season teams who are averaging more yds/pass on the season than their opponent heading into the game are just 24-23-1 (51%) ATS this season in that game!

Whoa, what the hell happened to this holy grail stat? I thought it was 83% like the thread starter said???

His original premise didn’t even pass the smell test.  Everyone searches long and hard for NFL winners.  Do you honestly think that there is 1 stat as basic as yds/pass attempt that could tell you the winner in over 80% of NFL games?

If there was, don’t you think someone would be using it by now and all of the books would have adjusted off that stat because it wins so frequently?

It is humorous how naive this uninformed poster was.

Again, there is a HUGE difference between a stat that can predict an outcome “going into the game” vs. a stat that correlates to victory “coming out of the game” (after the game is over).  The first is valuable, the second is just a stat.  Don’t get me wrong, yds/pass attempt is a great and helpful stat to use as part of your analysis, but it is not hitting 83% predictively, it is only at 51%!

The sad part is, there is a ton of misinformation on the internet, and you unfortunately have to check the numbers to make sure someone is truthful.  This type of fact-checking is what got me started in the NFL research game in the first place.  I love to find comments, stats or statements from any online or television media source and debunk them and get to the truth.  While this poster is clearly wrong, who knows how many innocent people he is leading astray with his inaccurate analysis and misrepresentation of the facts.

At least it’s not very hard to set the record straight on this issue:

In 2011, teams who are averaging more passing yds/attempt on the season are a mere 51% ATS, not even enough to break even in the NFL. 

 

 
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Posted: #86
laceumup Theres what i was looking for!!Knew it was a farce who cares what the stat says after the game lmao
 
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Posted: #87
VJ,

I disagree with much of your game write-ups, but I love this kind of stuff. Please keep it coming. 
 
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Posted: #88
Been busy the last day or two and I have not got a lot of time to reply to this thread, which has clearly taken off. I said many times I did not intend to post this to advise people to bet based on this. I also knew it was not a predictive stat. I posted this clearly for information purposes to indicate how much this league has turned into a passing league. I will have a post later in the night that will either stir things up or put this whole debate to bed. About half way done now.
 
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Posted: #89
Quote Originally Posted by supernate12:

Thanks again for all the input, another question if you dont mind.  How do you interpret the differences between teams...i get the math when your getting .3 or -.04 or whatever but how does that translate to what total or side your picking...and correct me if i am wrong but the covers matchup link above shows all this info and does the math for you, unless im not seeing something correctly.  Thanks again for your time.


Nate

That's the beauty of it, you can match it up however you want.  definitely look at it both ways.  

  Usually I'm just looking for a total,  If I see YPPO,YPPD,YPRO, and YPRD all higher than the average than i know it's going to be a high scoring game.  Above average offense and defense lower than the average is going to be a low scoring game.  


 
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Posted: #90
Quote Originally Posted by vegasjack2:

Been busy the last day or two and I have not got a lot of time to reply to this thread, which has clearly taken off. I said many times I did not intend to post this to advise people to bet based on this. I also knew it was not a predictive stat. I posted this clearly for information purposes to indicate how much this league has turned into a passing league. I will have a post later in the night that will either stir things up or put this whole debate to bed. About half way done now.



"Last week I introduced most of you to the most important and profitable stat when it comes to predicting winners in the NFL. For those of you who missed out, Ill give a little refresher."

HUH This was your first sentence of the topic!!What does it say??

And I quote "The most PROFITABLE stat when it comes to PREDICTING winners in the NFL"
 
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Posted: #91

Looked at the top ten teams in this angle both offensive and defensive .

Playing on the top ten teams and vs the bottom ten teams using the OFFENSIVE ydsppa these teams are a combined 49-29-2 ATS.

Using the Defensive numbers in this angle its 40-37-3 ATS.

Combined it is 89-66-5 ATS.

Used the statfox numbers.

 

 
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Posted: #92
Quote Originally Posted by Yavapai:

Looked at the top ten teams in this angle both offensive and defensive .

Playing on the top ten teams and vs the bottom ten teams using the OFFENSIVE ydsppa these teams are a combined 49-29-2 ATS.

Using the Defensive numbers in this angle its 40-37-3 ATS.

Combined it is 89-66-5 ATS.

Used the statfox numbers.

 



Wow are you kidding me again??1st there has been only 64 games played this year not 80 and after the fact this helps you how??

Just remember as an above poster said the team that has scored the most points in games is 64-0 SU and 48-14 ATS which also means zero after the game is over!!

 
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Posted: #93
Quote Originally Posted by laceumup:

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/?p=34

Posted on https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/?p=34
https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/?p=34#respond

Recently I read a post on a forum that I used to frequent that said the poster said was “introducing us” to an incredible stat to predicting winners:  Yards/Pass Attempt.

I laughed at this statement.  And I take serious issue w/ his premise:

#1 – this stat is far from new, innovative or noteworthy – it’s been around for a while now and is a fairly common stat.  Yes, it’s interesting, yes, it’s valuable, yes it’s a good stat.  But no, it’s not new and no, this poster certainly isn’t “introducing” it.  (You’ve got to love it when forum posters try to take credit for things that aren’t theirs.)  More than likely, this guy just found out about the stat himself and so it’s new to him, but he must have been taking a Rip van Winkle nap for the last decade when the stat really was new.

#2 – there is nothing “predictive” about his stat – he claims that teams who have more yds/pass attempt are 53-11 (83%) ATS.  This is 100% untrue.  By my records I show teams who come out of a game with a better yds/pass attempt than their opponent in that game to be 45-17 ATS (73%).  But the point is that it is retrodictively looking at a game.  In other words, it is not looking at a game to be played in the future and saying:  The team who has averaged the most yds/pass attempt will win 73% of the time.  The 73% is a correlation of the stats during that game to victory.  In other words, if two teams met on Sunday, and during the game one team averaged 7 yds/attempt in the game and the other averaged 6, the team who averaged 7 yds/attempt will win the game ATS 73% of the time.  This is not “predictive”, it’s retrodictive.

#3 – there are plenty of other same-game, in-game stats which correlate much closer to victory than the 73% that yds/pass attempt correlates:

  • Teams who average fewer yds/point in the game are 51-10 ATS (84%).
  • Teams who convert more red zone trips into touchdowns in the game are 37-7 ATS (84%).
  • Teams who score more touchdowns during the game in the game are 44-6 ATS (88%).

You might as well add this one also:

  • Teams who score more points in the game are 64-0 SU and 48-14 ATS (77%).

This retrodictive analysis is fun to toy with, but the whole goal is to create a predictive model.

Want to know the truth?

This season teams who are averaging more yds/pass on the season than their opponent heading into the game are just 24-23-1 (51%) ATS this season in that game!

Whoa, what the hell happened to this holy grail stat? I thought it was 83% like the thread starter said???

His original premise didn’t even pass the smell test.  Everyone searches long and hard for NFL winners.  Do you honestly think that there is 1 stat as basic as yds/pass attempt that could tell you the winner in over 80% of NFL games?

If there was, don’t you think someone would be using it by now and all of the books would have adjusted off that stat because it wins so frequently?

It is humorous how naive this uninformed poster was.

Again, there is a HUGE difference between a stat that can predict an outcome “going into the game” vs. a stat that correlates to victory “coming out of the game” (after the game is over).  The first is valuable, the second is just a stat.  Don’t get me wrong, yds/pass attempt is a great and helpful stat to use as part of your analysis, but it is not hitting 83% predictively, it is only at 51%!

The sad part is, there is a ton of misinformation on the internet, and you unfortunately have to check the numbers to make sure someone is truthful.  This type of fact-checking is what got me started in the NFL research game in the first place.  I love to find comments, stats or statements from any online or television media source and debunk them and get to the truth.  While this poster is clearly wrong, who knows how many innocent people he is leading astray with his inaccurate analysis and misrepresentation of the facts.

At least it’s not very hard to set the record straight on this issue:

In 2011, teams who are averaging more passing yds/attempt on the season are a mere 51% ATS, not even enough to break even in the NFL. 

 



good effing job laceumup.  it takes a lot of work to get this shit right sometimes.
 
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Posted: #94
Quote Originally Posted by YouWish:



good effing job laceumup.  it takes a lot of work to get this shit right sometimes.


can't take the credit.......... not my work but saw it and wanted to share cause it made a turn on
 
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Posted: #95

Quote Originally Posted by pacers792:

I call Bull shit. this shit does not work.. you cant predict how many yards per attempt they are going to complete any given sunday. New Orleans covers easily.

 
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Posted: #96
Quote Originally Posted by supernate12:




shouldnt you be subtracting yard per attempt NO from yards allowed per attempt NC?  Thats how covers is doing it, your doing it NO to NO and NC to NC... Again im super new to this and am trying to better undertstand the numbers.


I should also add that you can put a little more weight into the defensive numbers too, when you're using the stats that way.  New Orleans is showing 7.7 YPP and Carolina is allowing  8.5 on average.

So it would be easy to say NO will finish at around 8.5 YPP and Carolina will be held to 6.3 YPP.  Then NO wins in the Rushing game too.  So over all NO has the better Offense vs.  Carolinas shitty D. 

Either way you look at it NO has the advantage and should win, now you just have to figure out do they cover?  That's how they getya
 
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Posted: #97
Christ, I never said this was predictive or anything to that extent and I have people writting articles on other websites about it? Good lord do people take this forum WAY to seriously. All I said was it is extremely interesting. Going back to 2003 I did find a PREDICTIVE stat in regards to YPPA but I am not going to post that here as I couldnt imagine the uproar and bullshit that will be posted then.
 
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Posted: #98
Quote Originally Posted by vegasjack2:

Christ, I never said this was predictive or anything to that extent and I have people writting articles on other websites about it? Good lord do people take this forum WAY to seriously. All I said was it is extremely interesting. Going back to 2003 I did find a PREDICTIVE stat in regards to YPPA but I am not going to post that here as I couldnt imagine the uproar and bullshit that will be posted then.


OMG Yes you did!!!READ THE FIRST PARAGRAPH OF YOUR TOPIC Jezzzuz hone up!!Should i copy paste again so you can read what you wrote pfft unreal!!


AND I QUOTE!!

By: VegasJack

Last week I introduced most of you to the most important and PROFITABLE stat when it comes to PREDICTING winners in the NFL. For those of you who missed out, Ill give a little refresher.

I recently got an email from an oddsmaker who I have worked with and now swap information with. He passed along a statistic to me that he has begun tracking. He claims that this is the single most important stat in determining who wins week to week in the NFL.

What is the stat? Passing Yards? Rushing Yards? Turnover Ratio?

No, no and no.

The oddsmaker in discussion has found that the single most important stat in PREDICTING the winning team in the NFL is Pass Yards Per Attempt.


Now VJ what does that say??Or do you need the definition of PREDICT??
 
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Posted: #99
haha
 
 
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Posted: #100
VegasJack needs this thread to die fast!! 
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