The Most Important And Profitable Stat In NFL Betting - Week Five

The Most Important And Profitable Stat In NFL Betting - Week Five

By: VegasJack

Last week I introduced most of you to the most important and profitable stat when it comes to predicting winners in the NFL. For those of you who missed out, Ill give a little refresher.

I recently got an email from an oddsmaker who I have worked with and now swap information with. He passed along a statistic to me that he has begun tracking. He claims that this is the single most important stat in determining who wins week to week in the NFL.

What is the stat? Passing Yards? Rushing Yards? Turnover Ratio?

No, no and no.

The oddsmaker in discussion has found that the single most important stat in predicting the winning team in the NFL is Pass Yards Per Attempt.

Disappointed?

I know it may not seem like the most exciting stat, and some of you may have never heard about it before. For those of you who have heard about it, you more then likely have not paid attention to it. When I received his email, I admit, I was very sceptical. I did not believe the results he was boasting, but sure enough after researching myself, I found out that this is amazingly accurate in predicting the winning team.

So far this season, the team who has more Pass Yards Per Attempt has gone…

53-11 (.828%) ATS +$4,090 (TO WIN $100 PER GAME)

52-12 (.812%) SU +$4,965 (TO WIN $100 PER GAME)

In week four teams with a higher YPPA went 15-1 ATS and 10-6 SU.

The top five rated teams going into last week went 3-1 ATS and 3-1 SU with #4 Houston beating #5 Pittsburgh. The biggest mis-match from last week was Green Bay -12.5 over Denver which cashed easily. The upset pick was Arizona +1 vs. New York which was not so lucky.

#1 New England (9.5) -10 vs. #20 New York Jets (6.5)

#2 Green Bay (9.0) -5.5 at. #24 Atlanta (6.3)

#3 Tennessee (8.4) +3.5 at. #10 Pittsburgh (7.6)

#4 Carolina (8.3) +6.5 vs. #9 New Orleans (7.7)

#5 Houston (8.2) -6 vs. #12 Oakland (7.4)

This week, the biggest difference of YPPA is found in the New York Seattle match-up. New York is ranked 8^th with 7.9 YPPA. Seattle is ranked 28^th with 5.5 YPPA. That is a difference of 2.4 YPPA, much less then the Green Bay Denver match-up last week which featured a discrepancy of 4.4. The Giants are listed as 9 point favorites but play into the very profitable West Coast traveling to the East Coast angle. If you remember back to Week Two, Seattle played in a similar game playing at 1PM in Pittsburgh. They were shut out 24-0.

The clear upset pick is Carolina at home to New Orleans. Carolina is averaging 0.8 yards more per pass attempt then opponent New Orleans. Since this game is already in the top five, I will pass along another upset play. Buffalo at home is getting 3 points. They are averaging 7.1 YPPA this season compared to their opponent Philadelphia’s rating of 7.5 YPPA. However, when playing at home, Buffalo has averaged 7.5 YPPA compared to Philadelphia’s rating of 7.0 on the road. The sides are flip flopped. The Bills could very well be worth a look this Sunday.

Good Luck in Week Five,

-VJ