But, in my opinion, people don't have to state the reason for agreeing with someone every time. A lot of the time it is the same reason, like if you say team A will win because they smashed someone last week.
Anyway, I'm not saying I agree with the human emotions thing or not I just don't think you should go around calling people cock suckers just cause they agreed with someone.
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But, in my opinion, people don't have to state the reason for agreeing with someone every time. A lot of the time it is the same reason, like if you say team A will win because they smashed someone last week.
Anyway, I'm not saying I agree with the human emotions thing or not I just don't think you should go around calling people cock suckers just cause they agreed with someone.
This is a great thread, thanks for posting this. This is the kinda stuff i look for to add in to my current capping style. That being said, how does the running yards avg tie into the passing when rating the game...is there no correlation? Someone mentioned the running avg is better suited for college...Sorry if these are stupid questions, but this is very interesting and id like to know.
Thanks,
Nate
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This is a great thread, thanks for posting this. This is the kinda stuff i look for to add in to my current capping style. That being said, how does the running yards avg tie into the passing when rating the game...is there no correlation? Someone mentioned the running avg is better suited for college...Sorry if these are stupid questions, but this is very interesting and id like to know.
This is a great thread, thanks for posting this. This is the kinda stuff i look for to add in to my current capping style. That being said, how does the running yards avg tie into the passing when rating the game...is there no correlation? Someone mentioned the running avg is better suited for college...Sorry if these are stupid questions, but this is very interesting and id like to know.
Thanks,
Nate
I use both, I weigh more on YPP in the NFL and more on YPR in college. I compare them to averages and it gives me a good grasp on a teams stats without flooding myself with stats.
as an example the NFL averages right now are YPP 6.99 YPR 4.16
The avg score is 22.8 rounded to 23, so the avg total is 46, in between 2 key numbers of 45 and 47.
There's no "system" you just have to use your best judgement, but you can pull a lot of info from these stats.
here's an example of a game, since it's the first one on the stats page I'll use New Orleans @ Carolina. But remember this is not a system, you still have to factor in situation, injuries, and weather. But this is a great way to find a teams recent form without scores or record.
YPPO YPPD DIFF
New Orleans 7.7 6.3 1.4
Carolina 8.2 8.5 -0.3
YPRO YPRD DIFF
New Orleans 4.5 4.6 -0.2
Carolina 4.1 5.2 -1.1
By looking at the stats I can see both teams excel in passing with Carolina at a slight advantage, but the Saints have the better passing D. Both teams Rushing D is below average, you can estimate a lot of 1st downs for both teams with New Orleans being better in the passing game.
I would pass this game because the advantage isn't big enough for me to invest in. But taking a guess by looking at these stats I would say New Orleans would be a good pick -3 or less and the Total should be around 48 to 51.
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Quote Originally Posted by supernate12:
This is a great thread, thanks for posting this. This is the kinda stuff i look for to add in to my current capping style. That being said, how does the running yards avg tie into the passing when rating the game...is there no correlation? Someone mentioned the running avg is better suited for college...Sorry if these are stupid questions, but this is very interesting and id like to know.
Thanks,
Nate
I use both, I weigh more on YPP in the NFL and more on YPR in college. I compare them to averages and it gives me a good grasp on a teams stats without flooding myself with stats.
as an example the NFL averages right now are YPP 6.99 YPR 4.16
The avg score is 22.8 rounded to 23, so the avg total is 46, in between 2 key numbers of 45 and 47.
There's no "system" you just have to use your best judgement, but you can pull a lot of info from these stats.
here's an example of a game, since it's the first one on the stats page I'll use New Orleans @ Carolina. But remember this is not a system, you still have to factor in situation, injuries, and weather. But this is a great way to find a teams recent form without scores or record.
YPPO YPPD DIFF
New Orleans 7.7 6.3 1.4
Carolina 8.2 8.5 -0.3
YPRO YPRD DIFF
New Orleans 4.5 4.6 -0.2
Carolina 4.1 5.2 -1.1
By looking at the stats I can see both teams excel in passing with Carolina at a slight advantage, but the Saints have the better passing D. Both teams Rushing D is below average, you can estimate a lot of 1st downs for both teams with New Orleans being better in the passing game.
I would pass this game because the advantage isn't big enough for me to invest in. But taking a guess by looking at these stats I would say New Orleans would be a good pick -3 or less and the Total should be around 48 to 51.
Philadelphia has a slight advantage in the pass and the Bills have a slight advantage in the run. I would peg this game at a pick or a slight advantage to the Bills for HFA. But not enough advantage to pick a side even though the Bills are the dog.
I like the over, both defense and offense are above average, I would set this total at around 48 to 51. I would go on the over unless it passes 51.
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Just to add here is a game I really do like.
Philadelphia @ Buffalo
YPPO YPPD DIFF
Phil 7.5 7.3 0.2
Buf 7.0 7.3 -0.3
YPRO YPRD DIFF
Phil 5.4 5.3 -0.1
Buf 5.3 4.9 0.4
Philadelphia has a slight advantage in the pass and the Bills have a slight advantage in the run. I would peg this game at a pick or a slight advantage to the Bills for HFA. But not enough advantage to pick a side even though the Bills are the dog.
I like the over, both defense and offense are above average, I would set this total at around 48 to 51. I would go on the over unless it passes 51.
Ya i can come up with stats after the game that are awesome and will win like the battle of turnovers and so on.I thought you were using this b4 the game handicapping.What good is it after the game??Now if you were taking the YPPA b4 the game and then playing those teams
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Ya i can come up with stats after the game that are awesome and will win like the battle of turnovers and so on.I thought you were using this b4 the game handicapping.What good is it after the game??Now if you were taking the YPPA b4 the game and then playing those teams
Ya i can come up with stats after the game that are awesome and will win like the battle of turnovers and so on.I thought you were using this b4 the game handicapping.What good is it after the game??Now if you were taking the YPPA b4 the game and then playing those teams
All stats are after the game, unless you have Biff's book of future scores.
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Quote Originally Posted by MJ2345:
Ya i can come up with stats after the game that are awesome and will win like the battle of turnovers and so on.I thought you were using this b4 the game handicapping.What good is it after the game??Now if you were taking the YPPA b4 the game and then playing those teams
All stats are after the game, unless you have Biff's book of future scores.
........what, are you 12 years old. Take your crap some where else and let people read the info and cap the games without your worthless wisdom.
Your just as quilty by responding. But he is right the dude/bitch is retarded and cant even understand what the fuck dude is talking about most of the time. He likes to think he knows what he is talking about so he talks in a language only he understands and thinks he is always right. Well yeah your the only one who gets it so off course your right.
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Quote Originally Posted by Allbutbroke:
........what, are you 12 years old. Take your crap some where else and let people read the info and cap the games without your worthless wisdom.
Your just as quilty by responding. But he is right the dude/bitch is retarded and cant even understand what the fuck dude is talking about most of the time. He likes to think he knows what he is talking about so he talks in a language only he understands and thinks he is always right. Well yeah your the only one who gets it so off course your right.
To Vegasjack, very interesting. I like what your on to and will be looked at this weekend. Thanks for the input. SHIT MAKES SENSE!!! Thats all I look for shit that makes sense not like the moron who thinks Jags can score 30+ this weekend.
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To Vegasjack, very interesting. I like what your on to and will be looked at this weekend. Thanks for the input. SHIT MAKES SENSE!!! Thats all I look for shit that makes sense not like the moron who thinks Jags can score 30+ this weekend.
All stats are after the game, unless you have Biff's book of future scores.
Pfft my exact point!!He was making it sound like he was using the one who had the most YPPA b4 the game and it was 52-12 ats.Now that would be great if your taking the YPPA b4 the game and thats the record but after the game and taking that game well what does it matter in betting plays then??
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Quote Originally Posted by Sharkysden:
All stats are after the game, unless you have Biff's book of future scores.
Pfft my exact point!!He was making it sound like he was using the one who had the most YPPA b4 the game and it was 52-12 ats.Now that would be great if your taking the YPPA b4 the game and thats the record but after the game and taking that game well what does it matter in betting plays then??
Vegas, Whats the record ATS using the most YPPA b4 the game obviuosly starting with week 2?Also lets put all the games YPPA b4 the games on here and lets see how they do!!
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Vegas, Whats the record ATS using the most YPPA b4 the game obviuosly starting with week 2?Also lets put all the games YPPA b4 the games on here and lets see how they do!!
Pfft my exact point!!He was making it sound like he was using the one who had the most YPPA b4 the game and it was 52-12 ats.Now that would be great if your taking the YPPA b4 the game and thats the record but after the game and taking that game well what does it matter in betting plays then??
ahhhh I missed that, yeah those ATS stats must be after, I think he was just trying to back up the fact that that most winners have a higher YPP in the end.
So going into the game, a team with a higher YPP avg should have a better chance o win.
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Quote Originally Posted by MJ2345:
Pfft my exact point!!He was making it sound like he was using the one who had the most YPPA b4 the game and it was 52-12 ats.Now that would be great if your taking the YPPA b4 the game and thats the record but after the game and taking that game well what does it matter in betting plays then??
ahhhh I missed that, yeah those ATS stats must be after, I think he was just trying to back up the fact that that most winners have a higher YPP in the end.
So going into the game, a team with a higher YPP avg should have a better chance o win.
I use both, I weigh more on YPP in the NFL and more on YPR in college. I compare them to averages and it gives me a good grasp on a teams stats without flooding myself with stats.
as an example the NFL averages right now are YPP 6.99 YPR 4.16
The avg score is 22.8 rounded to 23, so the avg total is 46, in between 2 key numbers of 45 and 47.
There's no "system" you just have to use your best judgement, but you can pull a lot of info from these stats.
here's an example of a game, since it's the first one on the stats page I'll use New Orleans @ Carolina. But remember this is not a system, you still have to factor in situation, injuries, and weather. But this is a great way to find a teams recent form without scores or record.
YPPO YPPD DIFF
New Orleans 7.7 6.3 1.4
Carolina 8.2 8.5 -0.3
YPRO YPRD DIFF
New Orleans 4.5 4.6 -0.2
Carolina 4.1 5.2 -1.1
By looking at the stats I can see both teams excel in passing with Carolina at a slight advantage, but the Saints have the better passing D. Both teams Rushing D is below average, you can estimate a lot of 1st downs for both teams with New Orleans being better in the passing game.
I would pass this game because the advantage isn't big enough for me to invest in. But taking a guess by looking at these stats I would say New Orleans would be a good pick -3 or less and the Total should be around 48 to 51.
Like the info... Who are your plays this weekend?
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Quote Originally Posted by Sharkysden:
I use both, I weigh more on YPP in the NFL and more on YPR in college. I compare them to averages and it gives me a good grasp on a teams stats without flooding myself with stats.
as an example the NFL averages right now are YPP 6.99 YPR 4.16
The avg score is 22.8 rounded to 23, so the avg total is 46, in between 2 key numbers of 45 and 47.
There's no "system" you just have to use your best judgement, but you can pull a lot of info from these stats.
here's an example of a game, since it's the first one on the stats page I'll use New Orleans @ Carolina. But remember this is not a system, you still have to factor in situation, injuries, and weather. But this is a great way to find a teams recent form without scores or record.
YPPO YPPD DIFF
New Orleans 7.7 6.3 1.4
Carolina 8.2 8.5 -0.3
YPRO YPRD DIFF
New Orleans 4.5 4.6 -0.2
Carolina 4.1 5.2 -1.1
By looking at the stats I can see both teams excel in passing with Carolina at a slight advantage, but the Saints have the better passing D. Both teams Rushing D is below average, you can estimate a lot of 1st downs for both teams with New Orleans being better in the passing game.
I would pass this game because the advantage isn't big enough for me to invest in. But taking a guess by looking at these stats I would say New Orleans would be a good pick -3 or less and the Total should be around 48 to 51.
I am not posting this as a system. I am not posting this claiming this is my record. I am not posting this because this is how I handicap games. As I said in my other post when I began this, this is simply for information and something to think about. If you would like go read my write-ups on the past games I have picked, I don't mention this in any of them as I do not take this into my handicapping nearly as much as I do other factors. So no I am not exposed or claiming anything here but it was a little weird to see how quick that one guy jumped on me. Bad day at work?
Gamehunter, as far as what you said. I am posting these records from after the game. These records are not based on playing the team with a higher YPPA before the game, they are based on who has the higher rating after the game. Like I said, this is not a system or anything close to it.
All I am posting is a stat that appears to have a very high relation to the team covering the point spread. If you are able to predict the quarterback that will have a better YPPA before the game, more times then not (80% this season) you will cover the point spread. Personally I find it extremely interesting to think that potentially you may be able to forget about all the other factors that go into handicapping a game and focus on predicting one stat.
So don't jump all over me for posting faulty records and a bogus system and all that bullshit. That is not what I am trying to do at all so please let it go. Just information. You either like it or don't. If you don't, don't try change it, just move on with your day.
VJ2, DO YOU ROLL YOUR STATS OR USE FULL SEASON NUMBERS? I HAVE BEEN TRACKING THAT STAT FOR OVER 30YRS ROLLING 5 WEEKS AND 3 WEEK AVE FOR HOME/AWAY OYP(OFF YDS PER PASS).
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Quote Originally Posted by vegasjack2:
I am not posting this as a system. I am not posting this claiming this is my record. I am not posting this because this is how I handicap games. As I said in my other post when I began this, this is simply for information and something to think about. If you would like go read my write-ups on the past games I have picked, I don't mention this in any of them as I do not take this into my handicapping nearly as much as I do other factors. So no I am not exposed or claiming anything here but it was a little weird to see how quick that one guy jumped on me. Bad day at work?
Gamehunter, as far as what you said. I am posting these records from after the game. These records are not based on playing the team with a higher YPPA before the game, they are based on who has the higher rating after the game. Like I said, this is not a system or anything close to it.
All I am posting is a stat that appears to have a very high relation to the team covering the point spread. If you are able to predict the quarterback that will have a better YPPA before the game, more times then not (80% this season) you will cover the point spread. Personally I find it extremely interesting to think that potentially you may be able to forget about all the other factors that go into handicapping a game and focus on predicting one stat.
So don't jump all over me for posting faulty records and a bogus system and all that bullshit. That is not what I am trying to do at all so please let it go. Just information. You either like it or don't. If you don't, don't try change it, just move on with your day.
VJ2, DO YOU ROLL YOUR STATS OR USE FULL SEASON NUMBERS? I HAVE BEEN TRACKING THAT STAT FOR OVER 30YRS ROLLING 5 WEEKS AND 3 WEEK AVE FOR HOME/AWAY OYP(OFF YDS PER PASS).
VJ2, DO YOU ROLL YOUR STATS OR USE FULL SEASON NUMBERS? I HAVE BEEN TRACKING THAT STAT FOR OVER 30YRS ROLLING 5 WEEKS AND 3 WEEK AVE FOR HOME/AWAY OYP(OFF YDS PER PASS).
Did you keep track of the ATS record using those b4 the games were and if so what was it??
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Quote Originally Posted by 6-DEGREES-SEP:
VJ2, DO YOU ROLL YOUR STATS OR USE FULL SEASON NUMBERS? I HAVE BEEN TRACKING THAT STAT FOR OVER 30YRS ROLLING 5 WEEKS AND 3 WEEK AVE FOR HOME/AWAY OYP(OFF YDS PER PASS).
Did you keep track of the ATS record using those b4 the games were and if so what was it??
Ok i am going to put these on here going into the games sunday and lets see how they do with YPPA this season so far and see what the ATS record is !!This is just strictly going with who has the most YPPA if it were only that easy!!
YPPA season-Play Carolina 8.2 NO 7.7 - Carolina +6.5 Philly 7.5 Buff 7.0 - Philly -2 NYG 7.9 Sea 5.5 -NYG -9.5 Tenn 8.4 Pitt 7.6 -Tenn +3 Cinci 6.6 Jax 4.9-Cinci +1.5 KC 5.7 Indy 5.4-KC +1 AZ 7.5 Minn 5.6 -AZ +2.5 Hous 8.2 Oak 7.6-Hous -6 SF 6.6 TB 6.4-SF-2.5 NE 9.4 NYJ 6.5-NE -9.5 SD 8.0 Den 6.3-SD-4 GB 9.0 ATL 6.4 -GB -5.5 DET 7.4 CHI 6.5-DET-6
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Ok i am going to put these on here going into the games sunday and lets see how they do with YPPA this season so far and see what the ATS record is !!This is just strictly going with who has the most YPPA if it were only that easy!!
YPPA season-Play Carolina 8.2 NO 7.7 - Carolina +6.5 Philly 7.5 Buff 7.0 - Philly -2 NYG 7.9 Sea 5.5 -NYG -9.5 Tenn 8.4 Pitt 7.6 -Tenn +3 Cinci 6.6 Jax 4.9-Cinci +1.5 KC 5.7 Indy 5.4-KC +1 AZ 7.5 Minn 5.6 -AZ +2.5 Hous 8.2 Oak 7.6-Hous -6 SF 6.6 TB 6.4-SF-2.5 NE 9.4 NYJ 6.5-NE -9.5 SD 8.0 Den 6.3-SD-4 GB 9.0 ATL 6.4 -GB -5.5 DET 7.4 CHI 6.5-DET-6
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