Posted:
#26
The math behind 4 team 13 point teasers versus 3 team 10 point teasers
Posted:
#27
Not trying to get in the middle of this little spat, but i've been reading dl36 thread for awhile and he's right. I'm a teaser player myelf, ecpecially of the 13 pt. variety. Bodog(Newbodog) and 5dimes lines are -120(13pt) and -110-(10pt.). It been like that for years at BoDog, can't speak on 5Dimes history cuz I just opened my account 2 weeks ago, but it's the same as Bodog. I assume you've been profiled with higher lines at Bodog. Here is $ 12 teaser from Bodog on Monday Frank. I won't play these higher than $50 dollars because it's been MY experience to lose or break even with them. However, I like mixing a teaser together when I have no opinion, insight, or strong feel on a game and need the action, like the Degenerate I am. Monday's TT/SMU would be an example. Here is the teaser showing -120
| Date placed: Sep 03, 2007 3:52p Date settled: Sep 03, 2007 11:48p |
4 Team Teaser # 82980005
Football - College Lines (Game)Total
(223) Texas Tech vs. (224) SMU Over48 Mon@4:00p (Teased 13.0 points)Final Scores Texas Tech49 SMU9 Football - College Lines (Game)Pointspread
(224) SMU+22½ Mon@4:00p (Teased 13.0 points)Final Scores Texas Tech49 SMU9 Football - College Lines (Game)Total
(225) Florida State vs. (226) Clemson Under58 Mon@8:00p (Teased 13.0 points)Final Scores Florida State18 Clemson24 Football - College Lines (Game)Pointspread
(226) Clemson+16½ Mon@8:00p (Teased 13.0 points)Final Scores Florida State18 Clemson24 |
Outcome:
Loss |
Risk $12.00 to win $10.00 | ||
Posted:
#28
No matter what sportsbook you use a person is going to have to pay a higher vig for the four team 13 pt. teasers than the three point 10 point plays. A discussion which purports to explain "The math behind 4 team 13 point teasers versus 3 team 10 point teasers" that fails to discuss the vig is totally flawed. That's my point. Not sure why this is so difficult to see and why the point is being belabored.
Posted:
#29
Quote Originally Posted by frankjohnson:
No matter what sportsbook you use a person is going to have to pay a higher vig for the four team 13 pt. teasers than the three point 10 point plays. A discussion which purports to explain "The math behind 4 team 13 point teasers versus 3 team 10 point teasers" that fails to discuss the vig is totally flawed. That's my point. Not sure why this is so difficult to see and why the point is being belabored.
If the four teamers and the three teamers both come it at about the same success rate as dl36 posts instructs, than having to pay the higher vig on the four teamers makes the four teamers a much worse bet. dl36 makes no mention of this as he discusses "The math behind 4 team 13 point teasers versus 3 team 10 point teasers." What needs to be said is that four teamers suck as compared to three teamers for this reason but dl36 never mentions the higher vig and leaves the impression both bets are of equal "Math" value. Pretty weak, i'd say.
Posted:
#31
Lets examine the post...
"So the math once again proves that neither teaser is a sucker bet nor is either teaser a mathematical profit..."
"But comparing the 4 team 13 point teaser and 3 team 10 point teaser, I think that that neither one has much of an advantage over then other"
These are the basic points...Teasers are not bad bets, nor are they good bets.... also there neither one HAS MUCH of an advantage over the other....
Frank johnson then states "Your numbers don't account for the fact you're laying either -130 or -140 on these teaser plays. " "I think this post gives a distorted impression of the merit in these teasers."
This point is not about the comparison of 4 team vs the 3 team as he tries to have people believe, but that this post gives a distorted view of both teasers....
I try to give him the odds that I play with on bodog.... and he fights this reality....
"hey got vig at -130 and -120 and I don't use them much anymore cause they take months to pay. Where do you get the 120 and 110 numbers? It sure ain't bodog."
other posters and myself try to give him the reality of the numbers, I even call bodog customer service to verify this....then even in the face of evidence insists on saying that they vig will kill you, but when the -110 vig of the 3 teamer is put up with the -110 of straight betting he then changes his point to -120 vs -110 vig and tries to say this is point, when is reality if you read the post it is not... the story keeps changing hoping that something comes out right...
"what tangled web we weave, when first we practice to deceive"
--Sir walter scott
I am not upset, defensive, or in conflict with frank johnson because NO ONE is supportive of the stuff he keeps posting on the thread and EVERYONE has been supportive of my efforts and has confirmed what I have stated about his mistaken -140,-130 bodog odds....
So this post is not for frank because I am not going to have a logical discussion with someone who cannot do this and who keep changing his point once shut down.... It is waste of time... I do think however his point of -110 vig vs -120 is a valid point and being the logical person I am, I can that.... I refuse to fight logical reality and keep changing my story in the manner he does....
But as a I said before "I think that that neither one has much of an advantage over then other".... and I stick to that and will pay the extra -120 when the 13 point teaser is more appropriate and look to play the -110 when I can....
This post is really for the people that get it and people on my thread who asked for information on a comparison...So for those lets disregard franks ranting and touting of his baseball pick and overall hating on the thread and make some money.. I appreciate the support and feel good that NO ONE is siding with his bullshit that he is trying to feed and EVERYONE who posted is able to see the merit of the point....
Posted:
#32
"But comparing the 4 team 13 point teaser and 3 team 10 point teaser, I think that that neither one has much of an advantage over then other"
How you can make that statement and the fact the four teamer calls for a higher vig no matter where you bet and then call your post a "mathmatical comparison of three and four teamers" is really an insult to the intelligence of posters here. You say you've been doing this for ten years and never said a thing about the fact the four teamer has a higher vig but instead say "neither has an advantage" though you have to pay a higher vig for bets with the same success rate. I play at a place where the vig for four teamers is 140 and it was my mistake to not know that bodog has what they call sweetheart teasers at -120 and -110. That in no way undermines my point that a discussion of the so-called math that ignores the higher vig on four teamers, but instead concludes, "neither has an advantage" is misleading and totally undermines any pertense of a "mathmatical analysis." If anything, four teamers are the "anti-value" bet" if you want to take the math into account which is exactly what your thread title claims.
Posted:
#33
The only "ranting and hating" going on in this thread is coming from dl36. And certainly posting flawed info doesn't show much love for anyone who took his advice at face value when he says "But comparing the 4 team 13 point teaser and 3 team 10 point teaser, I think that that neither one has much of an advantage over then other." Paying a higher vig for the same rate of success isn't a "disadvantage" to this disingenuous fella. Please!
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