The math behind 4 team 13 point teasers versus 3 team 10 point teasers

For more then a decade now I have worked on the 4 team 13 point teaser in the NFL....  I have had some success, at worst breaking out relatively even on the season....

There was a discussion on my thread about the 3 team 10 point teaser being better then the 4 team 13 point teaser....So I did the math on thsi last season and the last two seasons for the 3 team 10 point teaser....

in 2006 + 10 point ATS went 385-127 = 75.19%

Mathematically when multiplied 3 times this comes out to 42.18%, pretty shitty,

But for what ever reason last year was exceptionally shitty for the 13 point teaser also....

421-91 = 82.22% and when multiplied 4 times comes out to 45.70%.... 

So even in the shitty season, the 4 team 13 pointer out performs the 3 team 10 pointer....

in 2005 the + 10 points ATS did very well hitting 406-106 = 79.30 and when multiplied by three comes out to 49.87% which is very comparable to just betting a game ATS randomly...  This out performed the usual 83-84% +13 point ATS mark which hits about 47-49%....

but in 2004 +10 points ATS went 394-118 = 76.95%
The when multiplied 3 times comes out toe 45.56%

So basically based on this data if you were to add up the three samples, you get 1212-324 = 78.906%

and then 78.906% multiplied 3 times comes out to 49.12%...

What I can see from these numbers is that similar to the 4 team 13 point teaser bet, the 3 team 10 point bet is about a 50/50 bet, like betting the line ATS....

So the math once again proves that neither teaser is a sucker bet nor is either teaser a mathematical profit... but the books know this and that is why they have the formulas they do... they arent stupid...

But comparing the 4 team 13 point teaser and 3 team 10 point teaser, I think that that neither one has much of an advantage over then other and I should remember this and be willing to play both types when the the number is appropriate...

interesting facts about last season +10 points ATS...

BAL was 16-0 on both +10 points ATS and +13 points ATS...

NYJ and SD were 14-2 + 10 points ATS...

JAX which was 15-1 +13 points ATS found itself at 13-3 +10 points ATS... Tied with such teams as BUF, CLE, MIN (teams with losing records)... Other teams to go 13-3 + 10 points ATS...KC, NO, PHI,  STL, SEA ...

The significance of the 13-3 records +10 points ATS is that this is the cut off mathematically for a profit at 81.25% multiplied 3 times = 53.64...

Please check out my weekly teaser thread and help me build a winner...

The si

Very good post, DL. 

It might even be better than 'The Dunk' being your avatar.

It's actually worse than losing 60 on the ten pointers, it's 65 to win 50 at -130.   My mistake but makes the teaser wagers even a worse deal.

thank you everyone,

No I dont have number on totals yet...

Frank,

I play 4 team 13 point teasers at -120
I play 3 team 10 point teasers at -110....

-130 and -140 are not good odds even on regular ATS bets.... 

We do however put money on -110 or -120 all the time...  Like it or not, the number dont lie...

-110 on a three team teaser!!!  I would play them too...where is that at di?

Even at 120 dl36 with your numbers the player gets killed but i can't find 120 anywhere.

I play bodog... check it out...

Bodog is one of my books.  They got vig at -130 and -120 and I don't use them much anymore cause they take months to pay.  Where do you get the 120 and 110 numbers?  It sure ain't bodog.

ive heard 5 dimes also the same odds....

Perhaps you have heard of the online books 5 dimes and bodog before?

If you have not, I would advise you to take a look at those books at the following web addresses...

www.5dimes.com
www.newbodog.com

bodog is 5/6 = -120 for 4 team 13 points
bodog is 10/11 = -110 for 3 team 10 points...

perhaps your math is wrong it the conversations from fractions to odds....

I just checked out the site myself....

I play at bodog.  I know their vig is 130 and 120.  Your being a bit sarcastic and defensive with "Perhaps you have heard......" 

I can't figure why someone with your handle on the numbers would have overlooked the vig and made out that players that  got a fifty per cent shot with these teasers and never mentioned the vig.  The vig makes 'em a lousy, lousy bet by the numbers but still fun i guess.

Good luck Frank,

By the way, I just called bodog customer service 1-888-263-0000 and they stated that -110 for 3 team 10 point and the -120 for 4 team 13 points....

They also stated that these are fixed odds and not variable from person to person...

So once again that difficult thing called reality is a hard opinion to accept....So if you are interested in teaser play Bodog (the only reason I play them) or 5dimes....

I find it interesting that when ever I show the math behind teasers people have difficulty accepting this reality....they then either skew it to fit their perceptions or they make it about emotional content like "sarcastic and defensive" when in reality the numbers and odds defend themselves....

I stand by the reality of the numbers.... people just react to it emotionally or rationally and logically appreciate the beauty of the numbers...

But reality is hard to accept for some...

"Reality has a well known liberal bias"
--Stephen Colbert

msikimike!

Good to see you back this year, I would appreciate feedback on my teaser thread this week....

Thank you for also confirming the bodog teaser odds...  nothing like reality in a discussion...

You bring up a great point about the bottom line...

if you are playing straight bet at -110 you need to win 52.4% of your plays to break even this year....

This is THE SAME percentage of 52.4% if you are playing 3 team 10 point teasers at -110 or 2 team 6 points teasers (on bodog) at -110....

I do not understand why anyone would insist that the numbers are different?  perhaps it is sticking with emotional reasoning rather then mathematical, logical or statistical reasoning..... but hey, some people based their distorted reality on how they feel, not what is real...and fight accepting reality even in the face of evidence....

frank,
Congratulations and I am glad that you are in a good  emotional mood and your emotional needs are being met...

I am happy that I will "lose more slowly" then others who will lose much more rapidly... 

personally, if we are betting with the same odds I fail to see the difference, but some how in your emotional reasoning you do....and that is fine, it seems that everyone else in the forum gets it and I will not sway you with math, logic or reality so I fail to see the point in explaining it.....you will not get it....

Therefore I concede, you are right, -110 teaser odds are worse then -110 straight bet odds....thank you for educating me....

best of luck this season.... and welcome to covers seeing you just started posting here and only on my thread....

I might add that leaving out the vig aspect was a pretty serious omission given the subject ("Math behind teasers"-you call the thread) and you recognize that.  I think that's why you have been consistently sarcastic and defensive in response.