All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

Sunday Oct 7 2007 NFL Week 5 Picks +++

...
Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 21226
Posts: 268
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2005
Posts: 5456
Posted: #126
2nd Quarter - 14:23
 TD  Colts 7 - Broncos 10
Joseph Addai 14 yd. run (Adam Vinatieri kick)
2nd Quarter - 8:29
 FG  Colts 7 - Broncos 13
Jason Elam 22 yd. field goal
2nd Quarter - 3:49
 TD  Colts 14 - Broncos 13
Dallas Clark 9 yd. pass from Peyton Manning (Adam Vinatieri kick)
3rd Quarter - 11:46
 TD  Colts 21 - Broncos 13
Peyton Manning 1 yd. run (Adam Vinatieri kick)
3rd Quarter - 8:55
 TD  Colts 28 - Broncos 13
Dallas Clark 3 yd. pass from Peyton Manning (Adam Vinatieri kick)
3rd Quarter - 1:10
 TD  Colts 28 - Broncos 20
Jay Cutler 2 yd. run (Jason Elam kick)
4th Quarter - 10:56
 TD  Colts 35 - Broncos 20
Reggie Wayne 5 yd. pass from Peyton Manning (Adam Vinatieri kick)
4th Quarter - 2:34
 FG 

Colts 38 - Broncos 20
Adam Vinatieri 22 yd. field goal

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2006
Posts: 55
Posted: #127
Quote Originally Posted by RobertoFiory:

 

May I remind you of how dismal the Denver Broncos have played at home ....and regardless of how poor San Diego has played these first three weeks ......how dangerous of a road team these Chargers really are .....>>>>

DEN are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games.

  • DEN are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 vs. AFC.

    •  

  • Chargers are 10-2-2 ATS in their last 14 games as a road underdog.

    • Wow ...when it comes to trends ...I see no other matchup that presents a better side that the San Diego Chargers

    Now, SD has struggled , but they also have not had a chance to adjust to new coaching staff , and have had a brutal schedule for team that is at least in the coaching department ...in transition ...

    a first date vs the NFC champs , followed by a road game against New England , and Green Bay ...

    Last week's collapse against Kansas City in the second half where they were leading 16-6 was simply alarming ...but you still get the feeling this team will explode sonner than later .....they are still very talented .....

    Why not , against Denver Broncos who at home this year beat Oakland by only 3 , and lost to Jacksonville 14-23 ...

    Then let me remind you of the last 5 home games from last year starting with the most recent >>>

    San Francisco L 23-26 x
     and that was to go to the playoffs !

    Cincinnati W 24-23
    impressive

    Seattle L 20-23
    Aren't you supposed these type of games @ home

    San Diego L 27-35
    ouch  

    Indianapolis L 31-34
    nice effort ..oh... but yet another loss

    In this case ..the Trends speak for themselves ....You ask how can you take San Diego ....question is how can you take Denver >>?

     

     

    Fade the trends bro...they don't mean anything especially with Norv Turner coaching...if SD can manage to blow a 16-6 lead, then i'm sure they can manage to lose on the road.

    Denver has the best passing defense in the AFC with 114.5 YPG allowed.  Rivers plays like crap, LT is overrated and talks to much *ish...i'm going with the better team with the better record, better QB, and better coaching.

    DENVER 24

    SD 21

     
    Hall of Fame
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Mar, 2004
    Posts: 23293
    Posted: #128
    Roberto,
     you are one fine capper but what you are doing this week looks like you are chasing, even if you like all these plays like you say you do.  I would have never expected this from you, because you are so careful with your selections.
    I wish you luck and hope you go back to your old style next week
    cd
     
    Rookie
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Oct, 2007
    Posts: 640
    Posted: #129
    Go with your picks RF
     
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Jul, 2006
    Posts: 1284
    Posted: #130
    Roberto I enjoy the trends and picks Keep it up!
     
    All-Star
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Nov, 2004
    Posts: 14055
    Posted: #131
    Denver also has the worst rushing D in the NFL as well
     
    Banned
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Sep, 2007
    Posts: 513
    Posted: #132

    Roberto: This is a hypothetical question but I really hope you still answer it seriously, or at all... It still suprises me that you chose so many games, but if you had to do 1, 3 team parlay out of all the games you chose, which 3 teams would you take?

     
    Captain
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Sep, 2005
    Posts: 5456
    Posted: #133
    Quote Originally Posted by Rookie_Bookie:

    Roberto: This is a hypothetical question but I really hope you still answer it seriously, or at all... It still suprises me that you chose so many games, but if you had to do 1, 3 team parlay out of all the games you chose, which 3 teams would you take?

     

    Arizona

    Baltimore

    Buffalo

     
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Dec, 2006
    Posts: 74
    Posted: #134

    Quote Originally Posted by RobertoFiory:

    make sense pick in alphabetical order.

     
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Jan, 2007
    Posts: 3600
    Posted: #135
     
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Nov, 2006
    Posts: 2467
    Posted: #136
    God, I love this thread.
     
    Keep up the good work, RF
     
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Dec, 2006
    Posts: 124
    Posted: #137
    Thank you again Roberto for everything you do.  I am not going to dig myself a hole on Saturday like I usually do.  I am up with you so far this season and will go for it this weekend as well.  Best of luck to the both of us.   GONNA BE VERY INTERESTING!!!!!!!!!
     
    Rookie
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Oct, 2007
    Posts: 640
    Posted: #138
    Quote Originally Posted by RobertoFiory:

    That's 13 picks .....
     
    And ..I'll have a side on the Jacksonville - Kansas City
    as well....just not yet ( for a total of 14 )
     
    Out of those 13 picks .......I say I go 8-5 ( 61 % ) on Sunday
    going into the MNF game giving me + 5 units with a 5 unit play
    left for MNF on Buffalo ....
    That's the theory anyway ....
     
     
    when you have the side of this game. Pls post it...You are the MAN of this forum . 
     
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Dec, 2006
    Posts: 2301
    Posted: #139
    great job RF keep it rollin
     
    Captain
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Nov, 2006
    Posts: 6117
    Posted: #140
    good luck RF
     
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Oct, 2007
    Posts: 1
    Posted: #141
    I still don't understand the logic of Do or Die game and how it relates to betting that team.  If a team is 1-3 it is not unrealistic to think they can go 1-4.  So must win does not always mean must bet.  You still need a reasoning beyond that.  For instance:
     
    I like the Bears +3
     
    yes this is a "must win" "Do or Die" 
    BUT that is not the only reason.  I factor in the Bears D keying on Favre and forcing some key turnovers.  I also expect less tunovers from the Bears offense as that has no doubt been the focus all week.  The Bears can win.  It is not just a "Must win"
     
    Myspace.com/BeatTheBook
     
    Banned
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Oct, 2007
    Posts: 1
    Posted: #142
    Roberto ive been watching your success all year and last week i put a G in my acct. and now i have 420 left how could i manage my money this week to get it back to par?  should i bet 20 a game? or should i bet on only a couple of games like baltimore? I would really appreciate the help b/c im hurting a little and have bed money management skills.
     
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Mar, 2007
    Posts: 3386
    Posted: #143
    Quote Originally Posted by RobertoFiory:

    listen ...if I'm serious about hitting 60 % for the entire year of football ...then I must focus ....and that means i can't spend much time on totals ....

     

    I think I am 2-0 on Over/Unders ( but haven't checked )  ..over a period of 4 weeks TY ....so I will pick my spots ...

    If you want my 50 % opinion on that ...I can give it to you ....

    but what's the point >>>>???

    Agreed, let's get it done. 
     
    Rookie
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Dec, 2006
    Posts: 569
    Posted: #144
    Quote Originally Posted by cd329:

    Roberto,
     you are one fine capper but what you are doing this week looks like you are chasing, even if you like all these plays like you say you do.  I would have never expected this from you, because you are so careful with your selections.
    I wish you luck and hope you go back to your old style next week
    cd

     

    Selfishly, I love his new style.    What he is doing assuming he has the bankroll actually makes sense in that it looks like a healthy diversification of his plays.  Putting a lot on one or two plays looks good especially when one has been as successful as Roberto, but it is "putting all the eggs in one basket" so to speak.

    Whatever, I think with his research the picks even if they don't win represent a reasoned approach that will over time make money.

    BTW, when I try and pick a lot of games it usually goes all thumbs up or all thumbs down.  Very nerve racking when the games start to look like I'm going to be losing them all . . .

     

     
    Rookie
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Dec, 2006
    Posts: 569
    Posted: #145
    BTW, Roberto not to rush you or anything negative like that, however, I'm already looking forward to your week 6 picks. 
     
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Sep, 2007
    Posts: 351
    Posted: #146

    Roberto-

    I love the BAL pick. I watched the entire SF game last week. If the Niners have one reason to lose this game, it is TRENT DILFER. GOD, he looked terrible!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Cement blocks for shoes. He will throw 2 picks minimum. $500 strong on BAL!

    Anyway, I am going to ride your other picks, but on a teaser!!

    GL

    Wager Type Teaser
    Teaser : Football 7 Points
    Select #1 : NFL Football for Game
    New Orleans Saints 10/7/2007 10:00:01 AM - (PST)
    Spread +4 for Game
    Select #2 : NFL Football for Game
    Pittsburgh Steelers 10/7/2007 10:00:01 AM - (PST)
    Spread +1 for Game
    Select #3 : NFL Football for Game
    Arizona Cardinals 10/7/2007 10:00:01 AM - (PST)
    Spread +4 for Game
    Select #4 : NFL Football for Game
    Indianapolis Colts 10/7/2007 1:05:01 PM - (PST)
    Spread -2½ for Game
    Select #5 : NFL Football for Game
    San Diego Chargers 10/7/2007 1:15:01 PM - (PST)
    Spread +8 for Game
    Select #6 : NFL Football for Game
    Baltimore Ravens 10/7/2007 1:15:01 PM - (PST)
    Spread +3½ for Game
    Amount Risking 100.00 to win $ 500.00

     

     
    Captain
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Sep, 2005
    Posts: 5456
    Posted: #147
    Let's see what happens Kyle ...
     
    I am bumping Arizona by 2 units for a total of 4 units @ the same spread ....
     
    So,
     
     Arizona - 3  ( 4 units )
     
     
     
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Jan, 2006
    Posts: 42
    Posted: #148
    Hi RF
    How about the Jax/K.C. games?

     
    Captain
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Sep, 2005
    Posts: 5456
    Posted: #149

    QUOTE Originally Posted by RobertoFiory:

    listen ...if I'm serious about hitting 60 % for the entire year of football ...then I must focus ....and that means i can't spend much time on totals ....

     

    I think I am 2-0 on Over/Unders ( but haven't checked )  ..over a period of 4 weeks TY ....so I will pick my spots ...

    If you want my 50 % opinion on that ...I can give it to you ....

    but what's the point >>>>???

     

    Quote Originally Posted by vegaslover:

    Agreed, let's get it done. 

     

    Ok  Fine ...I'll give you 3 ...that way ..I can't go 50 %

    1)   Jaguars @ Chiefs  UNDER

    2)  Balt @ SF UNDER

    3)  Seattle @ Pitt Over

    ****************************************************

     
     
    Captain
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Sep, 2005
    Posts: 5456
    Posted: #150
    Quote Originally Posted by DRAGONCLOWN:

    Hi RF
    How about the Jax/K.C. games?

     

    Jaguars - 2   ( 2 units )

    All Forums | NFL Betting Forum
    About Us
    Contact Us
    Careers
    Our Team
    Brand
    Testimonials
    Betting Guides
    Sportsbook Reviews
    Sports Betting News
    Podcasts
    Responsible Gaming
    Betting Sites
    Canada Betting Sites
    Canada Casinos
    Best Betting Apps
    Contests
    Streak Survivor
    King of Covers
    Office Pools
    The Covers community has
    810,221
    lifetime members worldwide
    Covers 30 Years Logo Established in 1995,
    Covers is the world
    leader in sports
    betting information.
    Site Map Help Privacy Terms of Service youtube logo facebook logo twitter logo instagram logo linkedin logo google news logo
    Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo
    Copyright © 1995 - 2026 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved.

    If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.