Sunday Oct 7 2007 NFL Week 5 Picks +++

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Well,  first of all ......

 Thank You Rage ,,,,

A few points >>>>>>>>>>>

 ....I predicted this week favs will win out over dogs

( I predicted Dogs to have a good week on week 2 and they feasted )

Secondly  ...I predict the AFC will win out over the  NFC this week ...

( I made no such prediction last week when NFC won out over the AFC 2-0 )

Third ...I have had  leans ( not all posted )  and have done consistently well ...and thought it was ridiculous for me to go 1-2 last week down a bunch of units ....considering how well  I would have done had I picked more games ...

Whenever for example I make at least 5 picks ...such is in the contests I hardly ever have losing weeks ...( I didn't say >>NEVER )

Unlike you ....I like this week enough to feel I can go 8-5 going into MNF .....

Naturally, I could be wrong ...but , if my assumptions are correct ...I have an excellent chance to produce a winning week ....

I want to get back on the winning track , and it may seem uncharacteristic of me , and suicidal even ....but I don't mind this strategy at all based on the points I made here.....

Naturally , I could be wrong ....

Regardless , this is not something I do every week .....

only when I feel its the right time .....With 4 weeks down ...I am taking a plunge .....

Wish me luck !

6 units total on Baltimore

Since , most of picks I make in multiples of 2 so far this year

that's a 3x wager ....

I watched all of the 49er games ...and they should be 0-4 ....

The offense is a joke ranked dead last in the NFL

Now , check these numbers >>>

213 yards per game

118 yards passing , allowing 15 sacks per game

24.1 % 3rd down conversion

Time of possesion >>>26: 32

14 points per game

Throw in a quarterback , though experienced that is simply not better at this time than Alex Smith ....and you have ...well...still the worst offense in the league ...

If the 49ers hoped to spring their moribund running game back to life they may find it difficult against the 4th ranked defense in the league aginst the run ..in the Ravens ....

Trent Dilfer won't have Vernon Davis as he misses his second consecutive game ...He figured to become a prominent part of the 49ers offense with his speed and power as a tight end .

Ravens on offense haven't scored a lot of points , but are still ranked 9th in the NFl in yards gained going against the 20 th ranked defense in the NFL .

49ers lost a key player in Manny Lawson who helped this team in their 2 victories earlier in the year against St Louis & Arizona ...

Don't be fooled ...Just as fortunate as   the 49ers were in the first 2 victories ...Baltimore could have easily grabbed the first game against the Bengals and after reeling two wins in a row against the jets and Cardinals , they dominated statistically the game against the Browns while managing to lose .

Essentially , You are asking the Ravens  to simply beat one of the worst teams in the NFL that have key injuries and are fortunate to be 2-2 ...

Home Field won't mean a thing in this matchup of still one of the better teams in the AFC against one of the worst teams in the NFC ...

The one weakness the Ravens have demontrated is in finishing off plays and putting up points on the board ...that will come as they simply outplay their opposition ....and against SF ...it will come often ....

Oh , and by the way... I  am a 49ers fan !

Good Point !!!

I was caught between a rock and hard place ...and then I remembered this comment I made ...>>>on this thread >>>

Squares, Fading the Public, Contrarian Plays, and Last Night

that HutchEmAll started ....

RFiory Do you look at injuries when you pick,,,,,,,does Colt’s injuries bother you at all?... thank you.

listen ...if I'm serious about hitting 60 % for the entire year of football ...then I must focus ....and that means i can't spend much time on totals ....

I think I am 2-0 on Over/Unders ( but haven't checked )  ..over a period of 4 weeks TY ....so I will pick my spots ...

If you want my 50 % opinion on that ...I can give it to you ....

but what's the point >>>>???

Let's pick an example ...

San Francisco has a quarterback change due to to an injury to the starting quarterback being out ....

it doesn't bother me much as long as it doesn't affect my line much because given that the offense is so atrocious ...it doesn't matter who is at the helm ...they will struggle ....

in terms of line value ..it might ....

Nothing I hate more than liking a team thatI am going to be placing a wager closer to gametime  ...and then  the opposing team receives a key injury that puts a main player out of the game ... The line will adjust usually to my detriment in that case ..always causing an overreaction .....

When the injuries are accounted for from the getgo ...or early in the week ...reasoning prevails .....

in the case of Indianapolis ....well let me copy and paste this info and comment on it >>>>

The Colts look to overcome their injuries and open 5-0 for the third straight season when they host the surprising but banged-up NFC South-leading Buccaneers on Sunday.

Indianapolis defeated Denver 38-20 on Sunday, but lost Marvin Harrison, Joseph Addai, Bob Sanders and Rob Morris to injuries.

"Coach (Tony) Dungy always says guys have to be ready to step up and step in, and we did that, but you hope we can get some of these guys back. You don't like seeing guys leave the game due to injuries," quarterback Peyton Manning said.

Harrison, an eight-time Pro Bowl receiver, left in the second quarter with a bruised left knee and did not return. Addai, who rushed for a season-high 136 yards and his team-high fifth touchdown of the season, went out early in the fourth quarter with a sore shoulder and back.

Sanders, a Pro Bowl safety who was instrumental in the Colts' Super Bowl run last season, injured his ribs during the first half, and Morris had the most severe injury as he sprained his left knee shortly before halftime.

"All the guys that were hurt have a chance to be out, yes," Dungy said. "I'd have to say there's a chance they'll miss some practices or a game, so as coaches we have to plan for all of them to be out."

If Addai can't play, the Colts will likely use a committee of Kenton Keith, Luke Lawton and Clifton Dawson. Keith has 23 carries for 134 yards, including 10 for 80 yards against the Broncos.

The Colts rushed for a season-high 226 yards against the Broncos, the first time this year they gained more yards on the ground than through the air.

Despite being decimated by injuries last week, the Colts proved a healthy Manning is enough to win.

Manning, who has started 148 consecutive games since his rookie year in 1998, led the Colts to six scores on their final eight possessions, finishing 20-of-27 for 193 yards and three touchdowns. The Super Bowl MVP and two-time league MVP has thrown for 1,066 yards, eight TDs and just one interception on the season."

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a non-complacent Indi team that has to be highly motivated by their rash of injuries and the flawless play of new England will be doubly dangerous ...and as the injuries piled up for Indianapolis they only proved to play better in the second half of last week's game against Denver >>>>