All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

Sunday Oct 7 2007 NFL Week 5 Picks +++

...

Participants:

Search

Posts: 268

C-MAN

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2006

Posts: 2027

Posted: Oct. 7, 2007 - 1:02 AM ET #176

Roberto. I'll be at the Pgh game tomorrow and would love to wager on them, I just really don't like all the key injuries they have - Troy, Hampton, Heinz, McFadden - hard to replace all those guys and they are facing a Seattle team that seems to be clicking right now.

0

MickyEyez

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2006

Posts: 3023

Posted: Oct. 7, 2007 - 1:09 AM ET #177

0

RobertoFiory

Captain

Joined: Sep, 2005

Posts: 5456

Posted: Oct. 7, 2007 - 1:22 AM ET #178

It was a deliberate attempt to pick every game NJDevils ...

I only do this about once a year at most ....

I am having some reservations about the New Orleans pick ...in part because they have been soooo inefficient this year , and then there is this trend >>>>>

In this matchup ....Carolina - New Orleans

The Underdog is 11-0 ATS last 11

As a trend ..I had no choice but to pick them in the Trends & Things thread ......But David Carr is capable of breaking an 11-0 trend all on his own ...LOL...

Naturally , I am concerned about the Bears pick ...given the injuries on Chicago's defense and the stellar play by the Packers thus far...

I do believe that at this stage after 4 weeks , we have a somewhat overrated Green bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys team

While the San Diego Chargers if that's possible are a sleeper along with New Orleans ( because they are in the NFC )

The Bears will show before it's all said and done to have a lot of heart and find ways to win , but they need to be healthier defensively ...In the meantime Brian Griese will getmore comfortable while in charge of that offensive unit ....

I am essentially backing teams that have already been abandoned by the betting public this week , while playing the percentages with teams like Cleveland and Buffalo...

I am also trusting the AFC teams over the NFC teams ...and expecting Favorites to win out over the Dogs for the first time since week 1 ...

In addition I am still fading two bad teams that are riddled with injuries that have IMO soft lines such as SF only Dogs by 3 , and St Louis only dogs by 3/ 3.5 ....There is no doubt in my mind one if not both of these teams will get blownout ...

I am concerned about the New York jets , though I don't mind the line @ + 3.5 ...

I am concerned about New England making a fool of my Cleveland pick , along with Kansas City proving that you should always pick them as Home Dogs ...

Finally , I am concerned about the Indianapolis Colt's injuries ;

how Pittsburgh bounces back from a bad defeat in the hands of Arizona ;

whether Detroit's offense is not too much for Washington's conservative style of play ;

if Houston can handle the role of being expected to win against lesser opposition while still not being 100 % healthy

Not too mention that I predicted Tennessee will have lost all their value after that MNF game ...and find themselves now as big favorites ( plus it represents my only change from lean to pick )

Then there is the lackluster performance of Norv Turner's team having to win a tough game on the road in Mile High ....

Surely, there is a alot to be concerned about .....

It will be interesting to see how the 5 teams ( picks ) I am most concerned about pan out >>>>

New Orleans

Chicago

New Jork Jets

Cleveland

Indianapolis

If these don't go at least 3-2 , then It will prove that I picked too many teams ....

Followed by the teams teams I am somewhat concerned about >>

Washington

Pittsburgh

Houston

Jacksonville

Tennessee

San Diego

Here , not achieving a 4-2 record from this group will be disappointing , and again prove I picked too many teams

Then of course , we will have to see how my strongest picks materialize ....

Baltimore

Arizona

Buffalo

Here not going 2-1 will only be mitigated by actually going

7-4 on all the other picks ....

We'll find out soon enough ...

I am not afraid to tinker ....