Shotgun vs. Under Center

I had a thread about this topic last year. It is holding true again this year.

We discussed the importance of balanced football when it comes to the run or pass, but more importantly the threat of a run. Unilaterally the effectiveness of play action from under center, as opposed to out of shotgun. It's a known fact that it poses much more stress on defenders when executed from under center.

We'll start with the top 10 teams who use shotgun the most. The 10th team(Saints) uses shotgun 66.7% of the time.

In chronological order:

Chargers(71.2%), Commanders, Bengals, Packers, Texans, Titans, Eagles, Browns, Buccaneers and Saints.

These teams are collectively 10-21 su. *note, the Browns have played 4 games and are 3-1. We'll note them again.

Here are the offensive rankings of these 10 teams per dvoa:

#26, #20, #10(Bengals), #28, #16, #22, #17, #29(Browns), #24 and #19.

Every one of these teams is in the lower half of offensive dvoa, if not in the lower 3rd. Only the Bengals are above the Mendoza line.

What is your overall disposition on the teams listed above when it comes to betting? Minus match ups, situations, trends, injuries, markets etc...all the shit we look at when handicapping.

I'll get to the 10 teams who use shotgun the least next. I haven't looked yet, but suspect the results. 

Top 10 teams who use shotgun the least.

The 10th team uses shotgun 52.2%(Ravens).

In chronological order:

49ers(41.7%), Bills, Bears, Lions, Raiders, Seahawks, Patriots, Rams, Jaguars, Ravens.

Here are the offensive ranks of these teams per dvoa:

#1, #2, #8, #7, #13, #15, #32(Patriots), #9, #6, #3

2 of these teams played in the SB last year. 3 of these teams are 3-0. Only 2 of these teams have a losing record(Rams and Pats). The Rams were one falsely called PI away from being 2-1. The league admitted that mistake. 7 of the teams who use shotgun the least are in the top 10 of offensive dvoa.

Is football that simple? 

You also have to ask yourself how much all those air raid and rpo college offenses really don't translate to playing on the pro level.

Looking at all this stuff will make you think about your betting outlook, especially the long game. What qb are you backing, and where does he come from? Is he ready for a true pro style offense? Does he have what it takes to take snaps from under center and turn his back to the defense on play action passes? Who's his OC?

Good Luck to all this weekend  

Interesting thread, good work 

I know when I see shotgun on 3rd or 4th and 1 it drives me absolutely insane. I cant abide that. 

Shotgun 4th and 1 and hand it off and get smashed 2 yds in the backfield every time. Yet we continue to see it. 

@undermysac

 I think it depends on a lot.  The type of personnel you have, the defense you are facing, what the coaches are comfortable with, etc.

Some QBs do better under center and some do better out of the shotgun for various reasons.  Some do both equally well.

Jackson seems to have adapted just fine to the change.  

Even looking at the early start to the season you will notice the QB play itself shows some differences just in ratings.  

It is a very small sample size when you break it completely up ands maybe something can be taken away from it and maybe not.

Not Shotgun                          Shotgun

142            Keenum                   80

140            Jackson                 104       

139             Lock                       115

131             Purdy                     125

122             Shough                   93

120            Rodgers                   69

116            Mahomes               107

114            Love                         77

113            Williams                   82

111             Smith                     110

Not Shotgun                          Shotgun

 131             Purdy                     125

123            Goff                        123 

 62            Mariotta                 118 

 85            Allen                       115

139            Lock                       115

 77            Darnold                  115

 94           Lawrence                112 

 91            Prescott                  111         

102          Cousins                    110         

112             Smith                     110

Playaction

Under                                         Shotgun

156  16att            Jackson             118   5 att 

!38  16 att           Cousins              156  4 att

132  19 att           Mahomes           119   19 att     

131   19 att          Love                    120  5 att

128  23 att           Rodgers              154  7 att            

123  16 att           Watson               125  10 att    

119   18 att          Brisset                 42    3 att       

119   14 att         Shough               108   10 att           

116   12 att           Williams              93     7 att          

107   17 att          Purdy                  148    7 att 

 81    25 att         Allen                    108    4 att

I think those are fairly accurate.  I just asked for them right quick off the database and I think I got it right.

But I think some QBs are more comfortable doing it one way, some the other, and others are equally able to do either.

Some coaches feel better to run their schemes one way or the other.

Sometimes they scheme it one way more during a game against a particular defense.

Maybe; maybe not.

104            Goff                        123    above had 123 for both

@Raiders22

 Thanks for the stats 

This does indeed isolate individual quarterbacks success, or lack of success in shotgun, under center, and play action from both. Good stuff.

Although the point I was trying to make is that teams who run a closer to 50/50 balance seem to be the better teams in the league. The win/loss records and analytics(dvoa in this case) show it.

Could it be that just this formula alone puts the defense in a more arduous position?

I think it does, as simple as it sounds.

The lone anomalies are the Bengals(#3 in shotgun rate) still a good offense. And the Patriots who are terrible offensively this year.

There are other reasons for that ofcourse and would make for good discussion.

@undermysac

 Yes. The even balance is always better in the long run — at least I think. 
  But if a team finds more success with one or the other (or thinks they do) — I think they stick with it.  
  Then they see other teams have attacked their opponent one way or another — so, they try to attack that way also.  
   Another team may have a developing QB and do not want to concentrate on too much at once.

But it stands to reason the more you can keep the defense guessing for a microsecond longer on each play would be best.  

@undermysac

 Defenses have shifted to playing a lot of nickel due to the league going so pass heavy the last decade or so

Having the extra DB in makes you susceptible to the run at times. There is a shift towards the run game and heavier personnel on offense. More runs and more 12 and 13 personnel 

Then you can get into under center vs shotgun. Shotgun doesnt allow for play action. Play action can make the LBs bite and open up the pass in the intermediate routes. It also makes defenders hesitate a split second longer as they have the respect that the play could be pass or run. Shotgun makes the D job a little easier at times, the O is slightly more predictable

if you consider plays per drive it is clear that under centre is conducive to extending drives and red zone efficiency.

The offensive line is also more efficient and imo is the real benefactor.

@dubz4dummyz

 Play action passes can still be run out of shotgun. But it's not as deceptive as from under center. The defenders will still lean towards coverage.

Here I found the clip I posted a year ago on another thread. On that thread, I was finding the same correlated data. The teams who used less shotgun were the better teams in the league. 

https://youtu.be/KmnCArEVKFI?si=ewcO3DjbSHi3_g8Y

I forgot to mention in post #2 that the 10 teams who use shotgun the least, their record is a collective 21-9

After 4 weeks, the top 10 teams who use shotgun the least stay the same. Records:

49ers 4-0, Bills 3-1, Bears 3-1, Lions 2-2, Raiders 3-1, Seahawks 3-1, Patriots 2-2, Rams 2-2, Jaguars 3-1, Ravens 3-1.

*note: the 11th, 12th, and 13th teams are very close to the top 10 in low shotgun %.

Vikings 52.7% 4-0, Giants 53% 3-1, Falcons 53.2% 2-2.

We already made the case for the Rams being 3-1(so did the nfl). And where would the Falcons be if they had a healthy Penix to start the year? 

The top 10 highest shotgun use teams remain the same. Records:

Chargers 0-4, Commanders 1-3, Bengals 2-2, Packers 2-2, Texans 0-4, Titans 0-4, Eagles 2-2, Browns 3-1, Buccaneers 0-4, Saints 1-3

@undermysac

 Another counter I would add is that it might not be a function of a team using the shotgun being 'bad because of that. But a team having to use the shotgun out of necessity because they are 'bad'.

It has some advantages to help a team that has a developing or struggling QB.  It gives them time to see the defense, RPOs are easier to read from the shotgun, the QB does not have to worry about doing his 5-7 step drop before setting up to throw.  It also helps a with a weak or hurt O-Line because an interior rush can be easier to spot.

All of the teams that use the shotgun a lot seem to have young QBs, or struggling QBs, or issues on the O-Line.

Even when they are not in the shotgun they have these problems, so it does not seem the shotgun is causing the problems.

Then the teams that do not use the shotgun as much and are doing well also seem to do well when they do use shotgun.

So, I think the question might be more are they using the shotgun out of what they have decided is easier for their situation, almost out of necessity.

@Raiders22

 Agree completely there Raiders. 

It's something I can track, so I will continue to do so. The shotgun rate is probably an effort to mask a poor o line, qb comfort, and other things.

All I know is that it's success(or lack there of) is apparent when it's not a balanced ratio. 

One specific game this week where the shotgun(with rpos) was successful was for the Panthers. They negated the Lions pass rush with it, and Bryce Young made some decisive and quick throws. I'm becoming a bigger Dave Cannales fan every year.

One QB who has thrived with rpo's in the past is Jalen Hurts. New OC Sean Mannion doesn't have it as a part of scheme. Or at least that's what my eyes have seen. Not sure of their actual rpo rate, but I guarantee it's way down this year.

I'm just guessing here, ; but is the shotgun used most frequently in 3rd and 4th and at least several yards to go? That would mean bad teams would use it more frequently and with worse results. Also it seems like teams who are trailing later in games , especially by more than 7 use it a lot and to poor effect( defense knows a pass play is very likely). This would skew all of those statistics and confuse cause and effect, a common problem with purely statistical analysis

@LVPrince

 I suppose that's an accurate assumption. 

Every team has different tendencies and schemes. It's hard to tell without actually watching a lot of football. The Bengals for instance run a lot of shotgun. They're 2-2 and still 10th on offensive dvoa.

The Pats don't run a lot of shotgun and are 26th in offensive dvoa.

There's a lot of outliers and other factors in all of this.

I've just been a firm believer in a balanced split in all areas of football. Especially run/pass ratio. Keep the defense guessing wherever you can. Don't get predictable...stuff like that.

"San Francisco has the third-best pass offense DVOA ever through four games and the 49ers now rank 11th on the all-time list of teams through four games"

Lowest shotgun rate team in the nfl at 41.7%

Coincidence? Maybe. Other factors involved? Ofcourse. 

I just can't help but notice shit like this, dissect it however you may.

@undermysac

No idea exactly how accurate this is but the LLM says this: 

1. Kansas City — 9.1%
2. Cincinnati — 7.2%
3. Philadelphia — 7.2%
4. Pittsburgh — 6.9%
5. Carolina — 6.5%

32. LA Rams — 0.0%
33. San Francisco — 0.5%
34. Seattle — 0.9%
35. NY Giants — 0.9%
36. Jacksonville — 0.9%

Last year:

Philadelphia: 6.3% — 14th

Definitely some interesting talking points here.Teams that play heavily out of shotgun typically have no running game or poor O-line or both and tend to be more pass heavy. Teams under center have game changing backs like McCaffrey, Gibbs and Henry. No-one fears a Marshawn Lloyd. Have Eagles always run primarily out of shotgun with Hurts during their winning years? Probably, RPO play has always been Hurts repertoire which suits the shotgun. Kinda crazy that their offense would hit a wall this year but it had been showing signs even last season. with Saquon banged up, offensive line banged up, their coordinator positions in flux since winning the Super Bowl, there is no stability on the offensive side.