Sac's Week 7 Plays

Texans 1H -6.5(-105) *1.05/1.00

There's a lot going on in this game, and in my head.

The Texans coming back from England, and off a divisional game. This can't be good one would think.

The Giants are leading the NFC East at 3-2-1, with a well respected coach.

The Texans are 2-4 overall. 

Well I'll be damned. The # opened at 9 I believe, and has ticked up all the way to 10.5 now. With a majority of the public on the Giants, why wouldn't they be?

The books aren't just talking to us here, they're fucking screaming. 

Let's start with HC Demeco Ryans. The guy hasn't had a losing season in his first 3 years coaching. And compiling a more than impressive win%. Going 10-7 in 2023 and 2024, and 12-5 in 2025.

But he's been a slow starter in 2 of 3 years.

It's hard to get out of most people's minds(including mine) when a team sucks early on. We tend to stick to that impression throughout the season. Same can be said for teams that start out hot, we still perceive them as great even when they start to slip.

Ryans started 0-2 in his first year. 3-3 after 6 weeks. Finishing 7-4 the rest of the way.

In 2024 it flip flopped. 5-1 out of the gate after 6, finished 5-6.

In 2025 he started 0-3, and 2-4 after 6. Finishing 10-1.

Here we are this year with an 0-4 start, sitting at 2-4 after 6.

What happened, why, who have they faced:

Bills, Bengals, Colts, Cowboys, Titans and Jaguars. 

3 of these teams were divisional games, and all played otr, including England. 3 of these teams are 3rd, 4th and 5th in total dvoa. What a terrible scheduling draw. 

I'm seeing the Texans with the 9th hardest schedule. Playing the Titans and Colts surely softened this rating. I also see the Giants with the 32nd rated sos. 

The Giants have played the Cowboys(at home), Rams, Titans, Cardinals, Commanders(otr) and Saints. Only 2 divisional games. They should of lost against the Commanders if Jayden Daniels wasn't retarded.

The combined record of these teams is 10-25-1

Houston's luck rating is -1.3(28th). The Giants is -0.1(#18).

Houston is 9th in overall dvoa.

The Giants are 28th in overall dvoa.

I also think there's something going on with Harbaugh and his players, not that it's particularly bad, but he's probably losing patience. Most of these dudes he aquired when taking the job, so he has to live with them for the time being. He benched Skatebo for fumbling. He benched Jameis for 2 pics after 3 quarters. Najee Harris has been released. 

He has sounded the alarm early all while leading the division currently. It's a sign of a good coach, he's trying to fix shit that needs fixing before anyone really notices. He's a high accountability coach. I feel like it's an opportune time to strike during this transition. 

Harbaugh didn't see or want to lose his starting QB Jackson Dart in week 2. Utterly unfortunate. But here they are starting JJ Mccarthy in week 7. A dude that KOC totally whiffed on in the draft, and couldn't coach up for 2 years. Good luck to Matt Nagy and Greg Roman with one week of practice, with this project.

Some x's and o's stuff...

The Giants might have the worst d line in the league. With the lowest no blitz pressure rate at 19.7%. And, the lowest blitzed pressure rate of 25.6%. What makes this worse is that the Giants blitz at 39.2% which is the 4th highest rate in the league. That's fairly inefficient. 

CJ Stroud vs the blitz this year has a 74.5 completion percentage, 4th best in the league. Better yet, he's thrown an 80% blitzed catchable rate. Some of his wr's have let him down here n there. With Marvin Harrison now for a second game, and Tank Dell returning, and Nico Collins 1 week healthier, his options will be plentiful.

CJ Stroud leads the league in explosive plays at 30. The Giants have 5 DB's on IR, Newsome(concussion), Holland and Nubin are questionable. 

The heart of the Giants defense was LB Brian Burns. He's been on IR for a few games. Now we see that Thibodeaux is questionable with illness, but much worse is that Tremaine Edmunds got injured on the last play last game. He was a DNP today with a shoulder injury.

The Giants have major injury problems at both tackle positions. One guy never practices but keeps gutting it out, the other guy replaced the injured starter, and is now injured himself.

If we want to make any injury report worse than it is, let's do it. The Giants punter, and return guy are banged up and questionable. They were both limited today.

1H #'s and PR's point me to the 1H.

Also, who's to say that Harbaugh doesn't lose his shit if JJ is a complete disaster the 1H, then puts Jameis back in for the 2H? He's had a short leash recently so it wouldn't surprise me. Jameis is a guy who can change a game in a heartbeat, for better or worse.

I'm kinda seeing a get right game for the Texans defense who's been below expectations all year. Last week the Giants RB's gained less than 2.5 ypc vs the Saints 32 ranked run D.

This game has huge blow out potential imo, I'll be looking at alternate lines later this week.

Good Luck 

I can't make sense of it. My father had clots form in his calves after surgery and they traveled to his lungs. They burst and he drown on his own blood. That's all I could think of with Hurts...

L.J. seen walking off field with a slight limp.Keep in mind he played when he was less than 100% last year.