Sac's Week 7 Plays

14-8-1 (+7.57)

This was a look ahead bet

Bengals +3(-115) *1.15/1.00

Bengals ML(+130) *.35/.46

I think that the books told us that Lamar will play with the opening # of 3.5. We'll see if it gets verified later in the week. If ruled out, I think the line will be Bengals -.5 or -1. That was step 1 in trying to get a favorable line. Now that 2.5's are showing, we still did our job getting better clv.

That's a small part of the game, doesn't mean we're on the right side.

Every team in the Afc North has a new coach this year except for the Bengals.

The main part of the handicap for me, is that the Bengals have been traditionally slow starters to the season under Zac Taylor. He's 1-11 in the first 2 weeks of football.

A parallel you could kind of compare with Sean Payton. Payton sucks in September, great in October. 

If you want to count Zac Taylor's first year as a HC(I don't usually, give these guys a mulligan for accepting a calamity) he went 0-8 before the bye. 2-6 after.

2020(enter Joe Burrow): 2-6 before the bye, 2-6 after. We're still in shambles. Joe Burrow tore his ACL in week 12, they forgot to draft an o line. The team was yet being built around the first overall draft pick.

2021: 5-4 before the bye, 5-3 after. 3-0 in the playoffs, lost the SB.

2022: 5-4 before the bye, 7-0 after, 2-1 in the playoffs. 

2023: 3-3 before the bye, 6-5 after. Joe Burrow tore wrist ligaments in week 11 vs the Ravens(remember this game) losing 20-34.  Burrow was done for the year.

2024: Started the year 1-4. Went 4-7 before the bye, 5-1 after. Missed the playoffs with a 9-8 record.

2025: 3-6 before the bye, Burrow suffered turf toe in week 2 and only played a total of 8 games. They went 3-5 after the bye. This season was a dumpster fire. 

This year the Bengals have started 3-2, and have the earliest bye week since Zac Taylor was named coach. Probably one of the most promising starts ever for the Benglas and Zac Taylor.

Since 2021, Zack Taylor has gone 3-1 su in the games following the bye week, that Joe Burrow has started. PS=34.5, PA=26.00

Since 2021, in ALL games after the Bengals bye week, in which Joe Burrow has started, they've gone 26-8 su. PS=27.67, PA=21.26

In this set of games they've gone 4-2 su vs the Ravens. With one of those losses Burrow got hurt in.

The Ravens sos is #30. What qb's have they faced? Daniel Jones, Tyler Shough, Dak, Cam Ward, Penix(got hurt) so they saw Tua in OT, and Deshawn Watson.

The Bengals sos is #14. They've seen Baker, Stroud, Arod, Trevor and Malik Willis. 

If Lamar plays, that'll be a challenge. The dude is really good. Not sure how his mobility will be on that bum ankle if so.

According to PR's and analytics, the Bengals are better ranked in all 3 phases of football. 

Good Luck 

@undermysac

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Falcons +4.5(-110) *1.10/1.00

Also a look ahead bet, posted on my last thread.

Got what I wanted, a major injury happened in Mike Evans. Also SF didn't cover, so the line re opened 3.5.

It was a risk but it worked.

I definitely regret not grabbing the ML at +180 at the time, but rest assured I will be on it. Gonna wait it out a little to go up.

This spot is great for the outright upset.

The Niners have not played at noon yet. The Niners have not left the West coast yet(minus Australia) but shit that was so long ago, like a mini vacation before the season began.

What incentive do they have to play Mike Evans before their bye? What incentive do they have in beating a non division team, when they are currently 6-0? How hard do they work in preparation for a 2-4 team who hasn't won a home game yet? What will they find from watching the Bears game tape that'll worry them?

Meanwhile the Falcons will need to bounce back hard. They need a W to stay on par with the Panthers. Let alone erase some embarrassment from the prior game.

Bijon Robinson had 9 carries last game, Brian Robinson had 1 carry. They'll be fresh, and this 49er unit can be run on.

On the flip side, Shanny has been limiting CMC's touches all year until last night. 16 carries and 9 receptions. 

With one day less rest than the Falcons, with the bye week on the horizon, this is where any team can falter, including the best team in the NFL.

Good Luck 

@undermysac

 Will be on both of these bol this weekend

Always a enticing and excellent read GL  @undermysac

@undermysac

 Sac I think Cincy can cause major headaches to Baltimores secondary. It didn’t have much of a chance to rear its ugly head against CLE, but that secondary can be downright awful. What I watched for 4 quarters in ATL, where those receivers were wide open all night, was horrendous. I still don’t understand how ATL let that game get away. But if Cincy can protect burrow, which is where this game begins and ends imo, it’s gonna be a long day for that Baltimore defense. 

Falcons  

Falcons are definitely on my radar but unfortunately for me it's down to 3. Still think it's the right side tho even at this short number. Short week for the Niners. Falcons could definitely exploit the Niners defense better than the Commanders without referee help. Love your reasonings for this game.

Can't disagree with the Bengals pick as well. Ravens secondary is a piece of work but at the same time I think a lot of people know this as well. I expect the Bengals to be the consensus pick and contest favorite here. 

Good luck Sac 

So you mean Bengals ?

@undermysac

 like it...off a bye ,div game, jackson wounded........bungals have to have this......so max effort

@undermysac

 like it...off a bye ,div game, jackson wounded........bungals have to have this......so max effort

Good luck Sac.  

BOL this week. Great writeup as usual.

@undermysac

 Good stuff Sac, I wrote up something similar, though not as well explained as you in my thread for this Atlanta game. I just played the ml, I am confident they win this game. 

I agree with you on Cincy too. Since I didnt get it early, I'm waiting now for a confirmation of Lamar playing to move this back up and I will play ml on Cincy too 

Sac you looking at Texans game at all? Huge spread I know, it's a tough spot for JJ imo though and the Texans D been underachieving...like this spot for them to roll through NY

Have lions my radar too but still debating

@dynamicz

 We must be brothers from a different mother. Both those have been on my radar for a while.

Need to look through injury reports and other things yet.

Funny that Lamar was clowning Dr. Jesse Morse on Twitter(who has officially retired yesterday from providing NFL injury diagnosis) over the ankle injury like it wasn't serious enough to miss multiple games and here we are Lamar still ain't practicing *insert clown emoji*

Great to know, will keep an eye on your thread...already made texans a play

Also bengals just flipped to -1 / -1.5...grabbed the early line cause of you 

I think team is saying it was low ankle sprain. The Dr speculates it was a high ankle sprain based on watching game footage. He believes Lamar will be out for at least a month. I don't think highly of the dr. he isn't always correct with his assessment but he provides injury news on my feed which is convenient. So far it's looking like he is right

Speaking of doctors...

I still don't know how Jalen Hurts played vs the Jaguars in England. 

He was advised to not sleep. Could of died. So then he played. And then got on an international flight where he could of died.

Make that make sense

That's so crazy man, complete malpractice on the Eagles part. Jalen Hurts has done a lot for his team, and this is what he has to deal with?   he and Lamar doesn't get favorable calls like Mahomes does and some of the hits he has taken in the past is downright atrocious. Would have been a disaster if they let him keep playing with that broken O-line. 

@undermysac

 Seeing cincy now-1 so it looks like lamar could be out for this game . I've been looking to see if it's been confirmed but don't see anything yet.