Playoffs?....tech angles/discussion

@Indigo999

 Wait for a higher line

Hey Indigo, I found this query to be interesting.

season >2004 and week = 18 and H and line < -3

here is the link :

https://sportsdatabase.com/nfl/query?output=default&sdql=season+%3E2004+and+week+%3D+18+and+site+%3D+home+and+line+%3C+-3&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

@spottie2935

 Thanks buddy.....happy 2021.

Thanks, Indigo999.  9-2 sounds better than 1-5, but small sample sizes don't provide much reliability.

@Indigo999

 He put up 9 points on Sunday...

CLV has allowed 11 more points than they have scored, so 8-8 is a more realistic record than 11-5.  CLV's strength of schedule is ranked #31 per Jeff Sagarin, but PIT's is only #27.  The winner could be dead meat in the DIV round.  Sagarin's records of teams vs. his Top 16 make KC and BUF look like the Super Bowl favorites.  KC only has two blowout wins of 20+ points, so I'd pick BUF (3BO's) to win it all, although BAL (4BO's) is peaking at the right time.

Too much of a good thing???  Two point-differential queries yielded surprising results; teams with an edge of 80-140 points are 34-21 ATS (Z=1.62 which is nowhere near the 1.96 95% confidence interval), but with an edge of 141+ points, they are just 5-15 ATS (Z=2.01, barely playable, fade NO).

@Polar_Bear

 Nice to see ya PB...hope all is well.

@DogbiteWilliams

That point differential data is interesting, thanks for sharing.

Here's a weird one....game 17 home playoff favorites on different days whose opponent didn't make the playoffs their previous season.

Saturday......17-9-1 ATS (+2.93)....Bills, Seahawks

Sunday........9-14 ATS (-.67) ...........Saints

would be interesting to know how playoff teams that scored 40+ in week 17 did on wildcard week. from what ive checked on profootball reference looking thru the yearly week summaries they did good in the early to mid 2000's then started to fade by 2010 and later. 

Bills and Bucs are the subject of focus 

@Digitalkarma

That is a very easy query:

PO = 1 and week = 18 and p:points > 39.5

ATS:   8-5-0   (4.50, 61.5%).  That is a small sample size, so I don't think it's reliable.

O/U:   4-8-1   (-1.58, 33.3%).  Same observation.

I will say this:  The SportsDatabase goes all the way back to 1989, and this query just finds 13 games, but 3 teams (BUF, TB and TEN) scored 40+ last week.  No (or far fewer) fans help those audibles, especially for the road teams which have had a fantastic year, going 125-127-1 SU!  The HFA, which usually runs about 2.5 points, is currently all the way down to 0.37 per Jeff Sagarin.

Good luck this week, DK.  I work with a guy from MD; naturally he is a big BAL fan.  BAL has 4 blowout victories of 20+ points while KC has only 2.  BAL will be a live dog if they can get to KC.

I have deleted my Bills play....and have added the Rams, regardless of who is playing qb.

Streaking teams in the playoffs seem to do poorly as home favorites, off at least 3 straight wins and covers at 9-12 ATS, and if their opponent was not in the playoffs last season this moves to 4-7-1 ats.

As mentioned earlier, teams with the yards per pass differential disadvantage do poorly in the playoffs, especially as home favorites, going 19-40 ATS, especially in game number 17 going 14-33 ATS, and this has been 9-23 ATS when their opponent missed the playoffs last season......Seahawks, Steelers

Team     yards per pass O/D           opponent yards per pass O/D

Colts           7.3-6.9                        Bills            7.8-6.5

Rams          7.8-6.5                        Seahawks    7.0-6.8

Bucs           7.4.-6.4                       Washington 5.8-5.8

Ravens       6.7-5.9                        Tennessee   7.5-7.0

Bears         6.0-6.8                         Saints        7.2-6.2

Browns      7.1-6.8                         Steelers      6.1-5.9

HF and oA(YPPA-o:YPPA)-tA(YPPA-o:YPPA)>0 and playoffs=1 and opS(playoffs)=0

Plays: 

1)  Rams +4'

2)  Browns +3'

Will almost certainly add the Ravens later towards game time.

Teams on a greater than 3 game winning streak on the road  in the playoffs have been 20-4-1 ATS as long as they have the yards per pass differential advantage, (only 10-18 ATS if they don't) including 6-1-1 in the first week of the playoffs.....Bucs, Ravens.

streak > 3 and A and playoffs = 1 and tA(YPPA-o:YPPA)-oA(YPPA-o:YPPA)>0

Indigo, if you have the time. Going as far back as you can, when non divisional teams met in the regular season, and play in week 17, what are the results? Bears/Saints.

Thanks 

@undermysac

You mean when they play in the first round of the playoffs?....game 17?

Those teams like the Bears as away dogs off a same season loss have been 7-6 ATS, 5-3 as an away dog on Sunday.....however in the database the Ravens are also showing up when I queried just away teams, which of course they have not played since their playoff game last season, so I don't know about the validity of my results.

not DIV and game number = 17 and P:season = o:season and A and P:L and day

Teams on Sunday games as away dogs with less than 11 wins have been 11-3 ats which fits the Bears, however there's no 8 win teams in the database.

thank you DBW, i didnt think it would be a great sample size but those numbers you pulled seem to match what i found. dogs are doing great this season without a doubt i read that they covered over 55% this year the best since 2006 when dofgs covered 57%. the playoffs that year were similar as well where dogs covered well in early rounds and faves started comin together late but they went 8-5 ats that season 61%. feels like we may have opposite this year where faves come in early and dogs dominate late? new playoff format + covid season may yield some interesting results.

win or lose, i think BAL will give KC all they can handle. maybe they can be the 2nd team to knock Ried off a bye. PITT was the other team. think Ried is 5-1 off playoff bye. 

@Digitalkarma

 Yes the Steelers were the team to beat Reid off the bye the year before Mahomes took over from Alex 

Away dogs in the first round of the playoffs that have won less than 4 out of their last six games....7-1 ATS.....Bears (only 7-8-1 ATS on Saturday....Rams)

@Indigo999

 Yes I meant game 17, thanks

Game number 17 home favorites playing in the wildcard round have been 4-0 ATS if they've won their last six games.....Bills

If they've won five out of their last six they've been 5-12 ATS......Seahawks

Four out of their last six?.....8-9 ATS.....Saints

Less than four out of their six games?.....9-10 ATS.....Steelers, including 2-6 ATS on Sundays.

tS(W, N=6) and game number = 17 and playoffs = 1 and HF and o:game number = 17

Home teams favored by less than 3 points or home dogs wildcard round.....

If they've won less than 9 games.....3-0-1 ATS......Washington

If they've won more than 8 games 5-18-1 ATS.......Titans 

H and line>-3 and game number = 17 and playoffs = 1 and o:game number = 17 and t:wins

Remember, Foles was the starter in that close game. If I were the Bears, and was serious about a playoff run here, I’d start Foles in this spot. I don’t care how he did during the regular season. The guy has proven himself in the playoffs. He is just wired that way. But of course the dumb Chicago coaches will not think of this until they are down 20 in the 4th. 

H and line>-3 and game number = 17 and playoffs = 1 and o:game number = 17 and t:wins

That is a solid query, Indigo999 (Z = 2.50).  However, adding "and tA(o:YPRA) > 4.5" drops it all the way down to 1-1-0 ATS.  That is pretty important when Derrick Henry is facing a Bottom 10 rushing DEF.  More queries favor BAL and that is my lean, but I will probably pass this game.

Good luck.  I will be rooting for BAL even though it's a CLV DIV rival.

@DogbiteWilliams

 not to be picky but this is a numbers game

home-away this season was 127-128 and 1, not the numbers you quoted, unless you removed the niners or something.