Playoffs?....tech angles/discussion

AFC matchups have been decided.

Matchups are my lines, NOT the lines that I think Vegas should put out.

Bills -7  Colts 51

Titans +2' Ravens 52

Steelers -3 Browns 47

Saints -9 Bears 49

Seahawks -3' Rams 42'

Football Team +3' Bucs  43

Giants +8 Bucs 42

pretty close 

Yeah - agree - pretty close.

Steelers will be more than 3
Saints should be 10+
Either NYG or Wash will be a 6 or so dog

Anyone seeing actual bettable lines yet?

Teasing Saints and Bucks will be my biggest play. I think the AFC games will be close, as will Seattle and Rams.

betonline has Pitt -4, Balt -3, Bills -7

and just this minute Balt is -3.5 now, and they added Saints -9, Seahawks -3.5

Thanks DK

AFC play on Saturday? And NFC on Sunday?

Lines are out by betonline.com.

Mine in brackets...no totals yet.

1)   Bills -6'             (-7)

2)   Steelers -4       (-3)

3)   Titans +3'        (+2').....looks like I am not alone in my crush on the Ravens.

4)   Seahawks -4'   (-3')

5)   Saints -8'        (-9)

can these vegas lines come out sooner im ready to pounce on a few of them!

I'm wondering whether any of the usual angles that people cite about Wild Card Weekend will still apply with the new format this year. Ordinarily dogs do well in WCW, favorites have the edge the following week. With the #2 now in play in the first weekend...

Westgate has Ravens -4.5, wow.

they opened it a little higher than i was expecting. Betonline and Westgate have converged on -4 now. hmmm 

I'm in on BUF -6.5, CLE +4 and TEN +3.5

@garbagetime

Hard to know GT....we're all just winging it this season.

Here's an angle predicated on season long stats, which haven't been updated,...if they've changed when I check tomorrow I'll let everyone know.

1. Teams with the better average yards per pass differential between the two teams have been 14-6 ATS as away dogs in first round games.....Browns, Rams.

2a) Teams with the yards per pass differential advantage as home favorites on Saturday in the first round have been 30-11 ATS......Bills

b) however they've been only 15-25 ATS as home favorites on Sundays.....Saints

3)  Home dogs in the wildcard round have been 5-2 ATS on Saturdays...... Giants/Washington and 3-7-1 on Sundays....Titans

Teams not making the playoffs the season prior....

Home favorites on Sunday 6-15 ATS....Steelers

Away dogs on Sunday.....12-7 ATS.......Bears, Browns

Away dogs on Saturday....10-14 ATS....Rams

Teams making the playoffs last season....

Home favorites on Saturday....24-13 ATS.....Seahawks, Bills

Home favorites on Sunday.....18-25 ATS......Saints

Yeah, winging it for sure. Interesting angles. The Saturday/Sunday splits are weird. I'm not sure who a shorter week should favor, faves or dogs.

Plays:

1)  Bills -6'

2)  Browns +3'

Home playoff teams in game number 17 where neither team made the playoffs last season have been 9-18 ATS as home favorites...Steelers.........and 0-4-1 ATS as home dogs.....Washington

Those home dogs in this situation have lost by an average of 14.40 points/game.

Game number 17 home playoff favorites where neither team made the playoffs last season and the home favorite had the lesser yards per pass differential have been 0-10-2 ATS (-10.00) and 3-9 straight up (-6.75).....Steelers

game number=17 and tpS(playoffs)=0 and opS(playoffs)=0 and HF and tA(YPPA-o:YPPA)-oA(YPPA-o:YPPA)<0

You are making my CLV team look like a live dog.  I don't know how to query for the quick rematch in the next game.  Help, please.

On second thought, that query probably won't have much value because the sample size will be so small.

@DogbiteWilliams

 Here is the query for playing a team back to back.....

po:team=o:team

which has been 7-7 ATS in the playoffs, though only 1-5 ATS when the team is an away dog

playoffs=1 and AD and po:team=o:team

Re-thinking my Browns play.

@DogbiteWilliams

On the other hand we have an away week 17 dog that won their previous matchup with the same opponent at home, and their this week's line is 7 points bigger than the previous game's line between the two teams......9-2 ATS.

playoffs=1 and line-P:line>7 and P:HW and game number

Post #22 above should read "game number=17", NOT week 17.

playoffs = 1 and P:W and AD and game number = 17 and line - P:line > 7

The only couple of those that I can remember off the top of my head featured one team already in who played their scrubs and shrank their playbook. 

I will be playing the Rams only IF Wolford is the announced starting qb. 

No play if Goff is the starter.....him and Wentz should be benchwarmers.