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PANTHERS BY 4 TOUCHDOWNS IN SB

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Posted: #76
Quote Originally Posted by naesiy:


Out of context that's a solid argument.  Too bad we are all smarter than that.  Considering that Carolina's offense gave the ball away only 19 times vs. 31 times for Denver's offense (18 directly from Manning himself), I think that stat is HIGHLY impressive for Denver's D to "only" allow 8 points less than Carolina.

Manning has only had 1 turnover (lost fumble) since returning to the starting line up.  After giving up 17 interceptions, he's had ZERO week 16 and this post season.  And it's not like he hasn't played any defensive chumps.  PITT and NE are upper half of NFL (8/15 respectively) in DVOA total D and both were pretty much full strength on defense.  Pitt was tied for 3rd in takeaways with 30 this season (Carolina had 39).  Carolina was able to face Arizona without the very important Honey Badger and Seattle operating with a serious equipment failure the first half and running on 4 weeks of continuous travel.

See, in context things don't look as impressive do they?

good info
 
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Posted: #77
Quote Originally Posted by naesiy:


Out of context that's a solid argument.  Too bad we are all smarter than that.  Considering that Carolina's offense gave the ball away only 19 times vs. 31 times for Denver's offense (18 directly from Manning himself), I think that stat is HIGHLY impressive for Denver's D to "only" allow 8 points less than Carolina.

Manning has only had 1 turnover (lost fumble) since returning to the starting line up.  After giving up 17 interceptions, he's had ZERO week 16 and this post season.  And it's not like he hasn't played any defensive chumps.  PITT and NE are upper half of NFL (8/15 respectively) in DVOA total D and both were pretty much full strength on defense.  Pitt was tied for 3rd in takeaways with 30 this season (Carolina had 39).  Carolina was able to face Arizona without the very important Honey Badger and Seattle operating with a serious equipment failure the first half and running on 4 weeks of continuous travel.

See, in context things don't look as impressive do they?

You can shape any fact and any statistics in any way you like to make it look like you have a point. Heres how i can breakdown some more "facts" to make something look like the best pick in the world (which it is, but whatever)

Heres something for you:

In the postseason of 2015 the Carolina Panthers have only given up a COMBINED 7 points in the first half. That number on the other hand is 19 for the Denver Broncos.

DENVER BRONCOS HAVE GIVEN UP ALMOST 3 TIMES AS MANY POINTS IN THE FIRST HALF AS PANTHERS, AND YOURE GONNA CLAIM THEIR DEFENCE IS FAR SUPERIOR? 3 times as many points and still SUPERIOR, NICE LOGIC. 


On average Panthers allowed 3.5 points in the first half, if we assume the Denver Broncos score even CLOSE to this number which isnt unlikely (why would it be unlikely when it happened and Broncos aint much better offensively) then Broncos are pretty much done. 

In all postseason games Denver Broncos have scored a combined 17 points in the 2nd half which is 8.5 in the second half on average, how is that gonna go against Panthers that doesnt allow anything in the first half if Denver cant produce in 2nd half? 


You can shape any statistic in any way you like to make a point out of it. But if you fail to see it in a bigger perspective with ur tunnel vision then youll pay the price for it. 




 
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Posted: #78
Quote Originally Posted by Asomugha:


You can shape any fact and any statistics in any way you like to make it look like you have a point. Heres how i can breakdown some more "facts" to make something look like the best pick in the world (which it is, but whatever)

Heres something for you:

In the postseason of 2015 the Carolina Panthers have only given up a COMBINED 7 points in the first half. That number on the other hand is 19 for the Denver Broncos.

DENVER BRONCOS HAVE GIVEN UP ALMOST 3 TIMES AS MANY POINTS IN THE FIRST HALF AS PANTHERS, AND YOURE GONNA CLAIM THEIR DEFENCE IS FAR SUPERIOR? 3 times as many points and still SUPERIOR, NICE LOGIC. 


On average Panthers allowed 3.5 points in the first half, if we assume the Denver Broncos score even CLOSE to this number which isnt unlikely (why would it be unlikely when it happened and Broncos aint much better offensively) then Broncos are pretty much done. 

In all postseason games Denver Broncos have scored a combined 17 points in the 2nd half which is 8.5 in the second half on average, how is that gonna go against Panthers that doesnt allow anything in the first half if Denver cant produce in 2nd half? 


You can shape any statistic in any way you like to make a point out of it. But if you fail to see it in a bigger perspective with ur tunnel vision then youll pay the price for it. 





2 game sample??
 
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Posted: #79
Quote Originally Posted by Mrfixers:



ooooooyeah sure vs a steelers team on thier 4th str8 road game who had that fake manning bronco team beaten for 3 1/2 quaters.

tyhen the last gasp win over beat up patriots with a weak defense that still sacked manning and hit him all game

fugging fat Head manning OMG you could play handball off that pucher


Are you a Patriots fan?
 
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Posted: #80
Quote Originally Posted by Asomugha:


You can shape any fact and any statistics in any way you like to make it look like you have a point. Heres how i can breakdown some more "facts" to make something look like the best pick in the world (which it is, but whatever)


You can shape any statistic in any way you like to make a point out of it. But if you fail to see it in a bigger perspective with ur tunnel vision then youll pay the price for it. 



Says the guy basing his Carolina pick on 2 of the 18 games that Carolina has played this season, both of which where they enjoyed HFA, something they won't have here.  The irony is strong in this one.

Thanks for proving my point. 
 
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Posted: #81
Quote Originally Posted by Asomugha:


Oh god, you clearly didnt even watch the Super Bowl which is just beyond pathetic that you choose to bring it up as if you actually watched it. Yes, 10 second fumble and Manning and Denver was STUNNED and he never got them back into the game. 


1) I watched every minute of the game, right down to the last play, which I can virtually guarantee you did not do.

2) The "fumble" 10 seconds into the game was not a fumble... it was a bad snap over Manning's head when he was audibling at the line of scrimmage.

3) Football is an 11-man game... and I suspect from your "analysis" that you have never experienced that firsthand.  I have, as a QB. There was nothing Manning could do in that game.  He completed around 70% of his passes, but the Seahawks had the right game plan, and got out to a big lead fast, putting the Broncos in a position where Seattle was able to ignore the running game.  Only someone who has no understanding of the game looks at that and puts all of the blame on the QB.  Seattle was a defensive monster, and played lights out!

4) Let's recall that I bet on the right team in that game, and you bet on the wrong team.
The Dude imbibes
 
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Posted: #82
I agree with you that the Panthers will win. But not by 4 tds. I think Panthers win very close, but I'm hoping Cam gets figured out on SuperBowl Sunday. Hoping Cam gets figured out like what happened to Bob Griffin and Kap. But BOL
Can a swindler change his spots?
 
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Posted: #83
This assomugha guy HAS to be trolling...there's no other explanation...we're getting punked all.  Har Har Ashton, well done.  Bravo.
 
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Posted: #84
Quote Originally Posted by naesiy:


Out of context that's a solid argument.  Too bad we are all smarter than that.  Considering that Carolina's offense gave the ball away only 19 times vs. 31 times for Denver's offense (18 directly from Manning himself), I think that stat is HIGHLY impressive for Denver's D to "only" allow 8 points less than Carolina.

Manning has only had 1 turnover (lost fumble) since returning to the starting line up.  After giving up 17 interceptions, he's had ZERO week 16 and this post season.  And it's not like he hasn't played any defensive chumps.  PITT and NE are upper half of NFL (8/15 respectively) in DVOA total D and both were pretty much full strength on defense.  Pitt was tied for 3rd in takeaways with 30 this season (Carolina had 39).  Carolina was able to face Arizona without the very important Honey Badger and Seattle operating with a serious equipment failure the first half and running on 4 weeks of continuous travel.

See, in context things don't look as impressive do they?

No, I dont sorry.  Because Carolina faced far superior offenses this year, including 9 games against teams that rank in the top 13...

Your comment about the Honey Badger makes no sense at all...Carolina dominated the entire game all over the field.  A cornerback/safety would not have changed that game one bit.

As for Denver beating Pitt and NE, Pitt dominated Denver in Denver whom didnt have 2 of their best 3 offensive players...


Im not taking anything away from Denver D, but they played a very easy offensive schedule...and Carolina's number on D are more impressive
 
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Posted: #85
Quote Originally Posted by LETGOPACK1234:


No, I dont sorry.  Because Carolina faced far superior offenses this year, including 9 games against teams that rank in the top 13...

Well let me ask you, where are you getting these ratings?  Are these adjusted ratings that take into account SOS?  It's easy to have amazing offensive numbers if you play in a division that plays no defense.  If we play ball on an 8 foot rim I could dunk on people too.

CAR has played three teams from the NFC East (only Dallas has a defense).  WAS, NYG and PHI are putrid on defense.  Do we even want to talk about NO's defense which made every teams offense look like the second coming of the greatest show on turf?  Atlanta's which ain't bad but ain't great?  This is why most people prefer using ADJUSTED stats and why I throw out DVOA, which by the way agrees with me with Denver have the #1 DVOA def vs. #5 for Carolina.  I think the defenses in the AFC West were across the board better than the defenses in both the NFC South and EAST.

Your comment about the Honey Badger makes no sense at all...Carolina dominated the entire game all over the field.  A cornerback/safety would not have changed that game one bit.

Losing a stud DB means nothing to a teams defense and their ability to scheme?  Oh really?  How was Seattle when Chancellor was out?  Did you see Denver when Harris was hurt in the Pitt game?  You think Carolina losing Josh Norman would be no more than a blip?  Seriously bro, you lost so much credibility with this comment.  Unreal.

As for Denver beating Pitt and NE, Pitt dominated Denver in Denver whom didnt have 2 of their best 3 offensive players...

You say losing a stud DB is nothing then in the very next sentence losing a 2nd string RB matters?  I think many more people would agree with me that a star DB means a heck of a lot more to the outcome of a game than a 3rd string RB filling in for a 2nd string running back in what was almost plug and play.  Then if that's the case, why aren't you bringing up Palmer's injured hand that obviously affected him the last two games.  Why does the injury argument only work for you but not against Carolina?


Im not taking anything away from Denver D, but they played a very easy offensive schedule...and Carolina's number on D are more impressive

I doubt the majority agrees.  I know the advanced statics don't   Maybe in the last couple of games...but again, context bro, context.  Crossing over a guy with a sprained ankle doesn't mean you are the next Steph Curry.


GL with your bets.  I'm not trying to change your mind, it's obvious that is already made up.  One of us will win.  I'm confident it won't be you....but I could be wrong.    
 
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Posted: #86
Quote Originally Posted by Asomugha:


Your Denver pick seems well thought out.. 

ARE YOU SERIOUSLY CALLING ME OUT FOR REAL? PLEASE STAY TUNNED FOR MY CAP ILL BE SURE TO TAG YOU IN IT. You looked at the last 2 games so here is a little nugget for you that you over looked. Last 2 games are at home next game i.e. the super bowl on the road. Panthers score half as many pts on the road in the first quarter as they do at home. With a d that is documented to fall apart as the game goes on this is not a recipe for success. Cause I'm feeling generous here is one more piece on info for you, the ref Blakemen, denver has yet to lose a game since 2010 with him 5 and 0 SU. DONT YOU EVER CALL ME OUT, I PUT WORK INTO MY CAPS, more so then you will ever be capable of understanding. Again this is one small point, have about 30 others ill be sure to tag you in. Cant wait till your no longer plaguing the covers community. As always BOL.....
 
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Posted: #87
Quote Originally Posted by M0neyMillsMark:


Last 2 games are at home next game i.e. the super bowl on the road. Panthers score half as many pts on the road in the first quarter as they do at home. With a d that is documented to fall apart as the game goes on this is not a recipe for success. 


Feasting early, letting the Defense pin their ears back and then hoping to hold on and weather the come back probably won't happen in this game.  Cam is gonna get punched in the mouth EARLY and he'll have to not only figure out what to do when everything ISN'T going right, he'll have to do it against the No. 1 Defense in football, with the knowledge that every time he fails on offense, he is giving one of the greatest QBs of all time, who btw took a 7 week siesta to end the regular season, another opportunity to score.

Should be as easy as beating up the NFC South.  
 
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Posted: #88
Quote Originally Posted by naesiy:


Says the guy basing his Carolina pick on 2 of the 18 games that Carolina has played this season, both of which where they enjoyed HFA, something they won't have here.  The irony is strong in this one.

Thanks for proving my point. 

Ohh, do you have some reading comprehension problems? As i said already i base alot on the 17-1 record, did you completely miss that? Also what do you think is more important; what happened in week 3 or what happened in the post season? 


Thanks for proving my point. 
 
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Posted: #89
Quote Originally Posted by Duderonomy:



1) I watched every minute of the game, right down to the last play, which I can virtually guarantee you did not do.

2) The "fumble" 10 seconds into the game was not a fumble... it was a bad snap over Manning's head when he was audibling at the line of scrimmage.

3) Football is an 11-man game... and I suspect from your "analysis" that you have never experienced that firsthand.  I have, as a QB. There was nothing Manning could do in that game.  He completed around 70% of his passes, but the Seahawks had the right game plan, and got out to a big lead fast, putting the Broncos in a position where Seattle was able to ignore the running game.  Only someone who has no understanding of the game looks at that and puts all of the blame on the QB.  Seattle was a defensive monster, and played lights out!

4) Let's recall that I bet on the right team in that game, and you bet on the wrong team.

1) So heres another thing you are wrong about.

2) Yeah making it look like they didnt "fumble" with the ball didnt they. 

3) Please take more pressure off Mannings shoulders, he will need it, otherwise hes likely to crumble like he always did.

4) You are such a hero and a legend. 
 
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Posted: #90
Quote Originally Posted by M0neyMillsMark:


ARE YOU SERIOUSLY CALLING ME OUT FOR REAL? PLEASE STAY TUNNED FOR MY CAP ILL BE SURE TO TAG YOU IN IT. You looked at the last 2 games so here is a little nugget for you that you over looked. Last 2 games are at home next game i.e. the super bowl on the road. Panthers score half as many pts on the road in the first quarter as they do at home. With a d that is documented to fall apart as the game goes on this is not a recipe for success. Cause I'm feeling generous here is one more piece on info for you, the ref Blakemen, denver has yet to lose a game since 2010 with him 5 and 0 SU. DONT YOU EVER CALL ME OUT, I PUT WORK INTO MY CAPS, more so then you will ever be capable of understanding. Again this is one small point, have about 30 others ill be sure to tag you in. Cant wait till your no longer plaguing the covers community. As always BOL.....

The fact that you cant even tell the difference between a regular road game and a neutral field is beyond me. 

But i cant wait either. 
 
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Posted: #91
Quote Originally Posted by Asomugha:


Ohh, do you have some reading comprehension problems? As i said already i base alot on the 17-1 record, did you completely miss that? Also what do you think is more important; what happened in week 3 or what happened in the post season? 


Thanks for proving my point. 

No, you base alot on the fact that Carolina offense is "Unstoppable"...I mean, they are going to win by 4 TDs right?  17-1 means nothing when playing the 27th ranked SOS.  Something you STILL have failed to mention or discuss.

Let me guess, you think cause you can dunk on the nerf rim you are Dwight Howard?  I'm sure strippers are truly interested in "you" too.  

Like I said, good luck with you wager.  lol.  
 
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Posted: #92
Actually, know what Asomugha?  you are 100% COMPLETELY right on this game.  I've realized the error in my ways and am kind of embarrassed that I even argued with you to begin with.  I think you should LAY THE LUMBER on this game...whatever your MAX BET is, double it.  Did you see Manning this year?  His noodle arm can't throw past 10 yards...Josh Norman is gonna eat that shiet up and skull fk Peyton.

I believe this line will definately jump to 7, maybe even 7.5/8 so it'd be the smart move to get your full stack in now while you're on the better side of 6/7.  You don't want some stupid backdoor cover ruining your bet because the better QB Osweiller comes in and actually throws the rock around unlike Peyton.

GL bud and congrats on your big win in SB50.  
 
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Posted: #93
Quote Originally Posted by naesiy:


No, you base alot on the fact that Carolina offense is "Unstoppable"...I mean, they are going to win by 4 TDs right?  17-1 means nothing when playing the 27th ranked SOS.  Something you STILL have failed to mention or discuss.

Let me guess, you think cause you can dunk on the nerf rim you are Dwight Howard?  I'm sure strippers are truly interested in "you" too.  

Like I said, good luck with you wager.  lol.  

Your analogy is far off. The thing is everyone on the 27th ranked team can dunk. 
 
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Posted: #94
Quote Originally Posted by DRIBBLE4LIFE:

I have just one phrase for Carolina backers:  

ROPE-A-DOPE

You fell for it last week like sheep wit hthat NE -3  (HAHAHA...sorry just couldn't help myself)

And now you see the line movement and are falling for it again with Carolina. I love it !!!!!  The Denver ML will only go up and I will catch it at its peak, due to you "expert" cappers.


Wait a second, are you assuming that Panthers backers picked Patriots as well? What logic is that? I knew for a fact that Patriots wouldnt win the Super Bowl again, and not going into conspiracies and such, the Patriots can be happy they won last year off a huge Seahawks mistake which was great so i think that killed some of their will on the field and also because of deflate gate etc. i couldnt see this team winning the Super Bowl. So again you are wrong. I dont think Patriots would win if they were the team to be in this situation. 
 
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Posted: #95
Quote Originally Posted by naesiy:

Actually, know what Asomugha?  you are 100% COMPLETELY right on this game.  I've realized the error in my ways and am kind of embarrassed that I even argued with you to begin with.  I think you should LAY THE LUMBER on this game...whatever your MAX BET is, double it.  Did you see Manning this year?  His noodle arm can't throw past 10 yards...Josh Norman is gonna eat that shiet up and skull fk Peyton.

I believe this line will definately jump to 7, maybe even 7.5/8 so it'd be the smart move to get your full stack in now while you're on the better side of 6/7.  You don't want some stupid backdoor cover ruining your bet because the better QB Osweiller comes in and actually throws the rock around unlike Peyton.

GL bud and congrats on your big win in SB50.  


Cheers! 
 
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Posted: #96

Hey Asomugha,

I'm thinking your on the right track suggesting a 4 touch down victory for the underrated Panthers. They have dismantled their opponents since they were rudely surprised off a clean sheet by Atlanta who they'd embarrassed 38-0 in their previous meeting. Nothing like serious  divisional embarrassment to get a team's behind off the carpet for a payback eh?

Four touch downs is a bit ambitious though IMHO, while 10 or 11 might be safer.

Panthers -10 + 175

Panthers -11 + 200

*Those were the lines posted last Sunday on the Alternative point spread. Wonder what -28 would return?

Juicy... too juicy to offer

Warmest regards to you and all who reside in and defend the great country of Denmark ( despite sagging soccer prospects )

 

 
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Posted: #97

Hey Asomugha,

Updating the numbers available from the Alternative point spread

Panthers -10 +150 down from +175 on Sunday

Panthers -11 + 175 down from+200 on Sunday

The largest offered number on the board is:

Carolina -16 +300

Juicy!

 
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Posted: #98
Quote Originally Posted by tonyrome:

Scary to think people bet with this mentality.
Although you are on the right side, your emotions tell me you lose a lot.


What do you call an Eternal Optimist? An accordion player with a beeper!
 
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Posted: #99
Quote Originally Posted by 23skidoo:

Hey Asomugha,

I'm thinking your on the right track suggesting a 4 touch down victory for the underrated Panthers. They have dismantled their opponents since they were rudely surprised off a clean sheet by Atlanta who they'd embarrassed 38-0 in their previous meeting. Nothing like serious  divisional embarrassment to get a team's behind off the carpet for a payback eh?

Four touch downs is a bit ambitious though IMHO, while 10 or 11 might be safer.

Panthers -10 + 175

Panthers -11 + 200

*Those were the lines posted last Sunday on the Alternative point spread. Wonder what -28 would return?

Juicy... too juicy to offer

Warmest regards to you and all who reside in and defend the great country of Denmark ( despite sagging soccer prospects )

 


Hey!

You're a cool dude.

Teasing it up to -10 / -11 seems like a great choice for good value for just laying a few points extra. I think the game will start off slow, but as the game progresses Panthers will look more and more like the team we have seen for quite a while now; a very very great and consistent team that can and will win the Super Bowl. 

Best of luck to you! 

Whats prospects you referring to in particular? 

 
 
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Posted: #100
Quote Originally Posted by DRIBBLE4LIFE:


HMMMMM, according to Pats backers, this was PRECISELY yhe reason they WOULD win SB 50...ya know, to show Goodell they could win with real balls. But I love the way you spun it to fit your narrative. Didn't fool me one bit, but I'm sure someone will believe it. This, after all, Covers.


Thats not the narrative to me. I see it the other way around. Non-Patriots fans genuinely HATE the New England Patriots and consider them cheaters, so they wanna keep this "narrative" alive, so now for future references Pats "haters" will say they won because of deflated balls and when the balls wasnt deflated the following year they couldnt win shiat. Its a story thats gonna stick to them. "Ha, you cant beat Broncos unless you cheat!"

Also you think the NFL would reward Patriots with a Super Bowl after all the shiat they have done? I dont create a narrative or add something to a narrative. Its there for you to see. I couldnt care less about it. 
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