Quote Originally Posted by garbagetime:
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw: My Other System ............ 2-3 Ravens +3 (-115) over Falcons ---- 1.15 units Vikings -2 (-117) over Saints --- 1.17 units I see Vikes at -1.5 but I can't get it so i lay extra juice to get the -2. Ravens are interesting as we lost on them ATS last week and now they are back-to-back plays, very good spot to back the Ravens this week. The method does have a play on the Jags but with a large line movement I don't like betting into these, had I got it early I'd of taken it but I'll wait and see on the Jags. I can get -6 with extra juice, looks like it's going to -7, I'd think the sharps will hit that +7 if not before. BetUS (my third book) has Vikings -1 @ -120, even while I'm seeing other books go to -2.5
I know people get use to their platforms, but with gambling being legal in so many states now, I wouldn't be shopping at offshore books who in the past made it a headache to cash out as opposed to the big name apps. Understand if you don't have a choice though, either being overseas or in a state that hasn't legalized it yet.
Quote Originally Posted by Raiders22:
@Boisestateand8 Tyler Huntley ain't that bad as a backup to Lamar Jackson Maybe, maybe not. He is capable, but they just cannot do the same things with him. He also cannot get them a big lead as easily nor come from behind as easily. Jackson is easily worth 5 points -- maybe even 6 points -- to the spread over Huntley. That is not to say that Huntley cannot do it for a game or two. But over a longer period assuming he will not have a negative EV outcome is dicey, I think. In other words if the game were played out over 100 games or so would you realize a profit or not. The other thing to consider is the look ahead BLT -6 and now ATL -3.5. If you assume a QB ADJ of 5/6 points is there really enough of ATL recent good play and BLT other injuries to warrant another 3-4 point adjustment. Certainly the line has crossed a few key number type spots -- but is it an over-adjustment. That is what has to be considered and not just the Huntley adjustment.
Why do we act like we don't know Tyler Huntley? This guy has been the 1-B QB in Baltimore for years now. Started a total of 11 games for Baltimore, including 2 last year, and 5 games for Miami the year before that. He's made a start for Baltimore every year he's been on the team. We know what he can do. He's not a shootout QB, and he's not going to win you games on his own. But if the Defense shuts the other team down, he's good for like 17-20 points and can win. That doesn't tell you much, because we've seen what Penix has done lately, but what he's typical capable of, which could be either or.
Quote Originally Posted by garbagetime:
Quote Originally Posted by Chauster: @garbagetime Very fishy spread a 4-0 undefeated team only favour by -2 in most books I see. Just feels like trap of the month rather than an early Xmas gift to take Minny. Think it’s best to just stay away from this game. Well, Minnesota's QB isn't all that, and their two top WRs might be out. Their defense has been great. On the other side, Saints defense has been awful, but they're a surprise team, and they're at home. I wouldn't read too much into being undefeated.
The Saints are a surprise team huh? A surprise team is 1-3? Looking back, them scoring in the second half on Detroit's defense might not have been as impressive as it initially looked. And their only win had a 15-0 4th quarter against Baltimore who has a history of letting down late against lower competition.