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    All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

    NFL WEEK 5 ........................2026

    «First Previous 1234 Next Last»
    DogbiteWilliams
    kidd22
    incognegro
    BarrelledIn
    slamspurs
    ...
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    «First Previous 1234 Next Last»
     
    DogbiteWilliams
    DogbiteWilliams
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    Posted: Oct. 9, 2026 - 6:06 PM ET #51

    TC, please discuss the NYJ.  I know you designated them as a Suprise Team after Week 1, but they only had 3 wins last season and they have now lost 3 straight.

    CLV looks overvalued (CLV is 3-1 SU but ranked only #22 by Jeff Sagarin and only #29 by Ken Massey) and I lean toward fading them this week even though the NYJ look weak.

    Reply

    TC, please discuss the NYJ.  I know you designated them as a Suprise Team after Week 1, but they only had 3 wins last season and they have now lost 3 straight.

    CLV looks overvalued (CLV is 3-1 SU but ranked only #22 by Jeff Sagarin and only #29 by Ken Massey) and I lean toward fading them this week even though the NYJ look weak.

     
    kidd22
    kidd22
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    Posted: Oct. 10, 2026 - 12:00 AM ET #52

    cloverpeace_5

    Reply

    cloverpeace_5

     
    incognegro
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    Posted: Oct. 10, 2026 - 11:26 PM ET #53

    Did you backtrack in the ravens bet when you realized Lamar is out or are you still on it?

    Reply

    Did you backtrack in the ravens bet when you realized Lamar is out or are you still on it?

     
    BarrelledIn
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    Posted: Oct. 11, 2026 - 2:55 AM ET #54

    What is the reasoning for Vikings, claw? You would normally be on the opposite of this play all the way - overrated undefeated team that cannot move the ball at all on the road vs a team set for positive regression after a humiliating prime time loss 

     

    Vikings are literally a nothing team that will collapse by season end. They can’t even find the end zone vs the worst team in the league and are due to lose 

    Reply

    What is the reasoning for Vikings, claw? You would normally be on the opposite of this play all the way - overrated undefeated team that cannot move the ball at all on the road vs a team set for positive regression after a humiliating prime time loss 

     

    Vikings are literally a nothing team that will collapse by season end. They can’t even find the end zone vs the worst team in the league and are due to lose 

     
    slamspurs
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    Posted: Oct. 11, 2026 - 10:44 AM ET #55

    Quote Originally Posted by garbagetime:

    Quote Originally Posted by theclaw: My Other System ............ 2-3 Ravens +3 (-115) over Falcons ---- 1.15 units Vikings -2 (-117) over Saints --- 1.17 units   I see Vikes at -1.5 but I can't get it so i lay extra juice to get the -2. Ravens are interesting as we lost on them ATS last week and now they are back-to-back plays, very good spot to back the Ravens this week. The method does have a play on the Jags but with a large line movement  I don't like betting into these, had I got it early I'd of taken it but I'll  wait and see on the Jags.  I can get -6 with extra juice, looks like it's going to -7, I'd think the sharps will hit that +7 if not before. BetUS (my third book) has Vikings -1 @ -120, even while I'm seeing other books go to -2.5


    I know people get use to their platforms, but with gambling being legal in so many states now, I wouldn't be shopping at offshore books who in the past made it a headache to cash out as opposed to the big name apps. Understand if you don't have a choice though, either being overseas or in a state that hasn't legalized it yet. 

    Quote Originally Posted by Raiders22:

    @Boisestateand8  Tyler Huntley ain't that bad as a backup to Lamar Jackson Maybe, maybe not.  He is capable, but they just cannot do the same things with him.  He also cannot get them a big lead as easily nor come from behind as easily. Jackson is easily worth 5 points -- maybe even 6 points -- to the spread over Huntley. That is not to say that Huntley cannot do it for a game or two.  But over a longer period assuming he will not have a negative EV outcome is dicey, I think. In other words if the game were played out over 100 games or so would you realize a profit or not. The other thing to consider is the look ahead BLT -6 and now ATL -3.5.  If you assume a QB ADJ of 5/6 points is there really enough of ATL recent good play and BLT other injuries to warrant another 3-4 point adjustment. Certainly the line has crossed a few key number type spots -- but is it an over-adjustment.   That is what has to be considered and not just the Huntley adjustment.

    Why do we act like we don't know Tyler Huntley? This guy has been the 1-B QB in Baltimore for years now. Started a total of 11 games for Baltimore, including 2 last year, and 5 games for Miami the year before that. He's made a start for Baltimore every year he's been on the team. We know what he can do. He's not a shootout QB, and he's not going to win you games on his own. But if the Defense shuts the other team down, he's good for like 17-20 points and can win. That doesn't tell you much, because we've seen what Penix has done lately, but what he's typical capable of, which could be either or. 

    Quote Originally Posted by garbagetime:

    Quote Originally Posted by Chauster: @garbagetime Very fishy spread a 4-0 undefeated team only favour by -2 in most books I see. Just feels like trap of the month rather than an early Xmas gift to take Minny.  Think it’s best to just stay away from this game. Well, Minnesota's QB isn't all that, and their two top WRs might be out. Their defense has been great. On the other side, Saints defense has been awful, but they're a surprise team, and they're at home. I wouldn't read too much into being undefeated.

    The Saints are a surprise team huh? A surprise team is 1-3? Looking back, them scoring in the second half on Detroit's defense might not have been as impressive as it initially looked. And their only win had a 15-0 4th quarter against Baltimore who has a history of letting down late against lower competition. 

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by garbagetime:

    Quote Originally Posted by theclaw: My Other System ............ 2-3 Ravens +3 (-115) over Falcons ---- 1.15 units Vikings -2 (-117) over Saints --- 1.17 units   I see Vikes at -1.5 but I can't get it so i lay extra juice to get the -2. Ravens are interesting as we lost on them ATS last week and now they are back-to-back plays, very good spot to back the Ravens this week. The method does have a play on the Jags but with a large line movement  I don't like betting into these, had I got it early I'd of taken it but I'll  wait and see on the Jags.  I can get -6 with extra juice, looks like it's going to -7, I'd think the sharps will hit that +7 if not before. BetUS (my third book) has Vikings -1 @ -120, even while I'm seeing other books go to -2.5


    I know people get use to their platforms, but with gambling being legal in so many states now, I wouldn't be shopping at offshore books who in the past made it a headache to cash out as opposed to the big name apps. Understand if you don't have a choice though, either being overseas or in a state that hasn't legalized it yet. 

    Quote Originally Posted by Raiders22:

    @Boisestateand8  Tyler Huntley ain't that bad as a backup to Lamar Jackson Maybe, maybe not.  He is capable, but they just cannot do the same things with him.  He also cannot get them a big lead as easily nor come from behind as easily. Jackson is easily worth 5 points -- maybe even 6 points -- to the spread over Huntley. That is not to say that Huntley cannot do it for a game or two.  But over a longer period assuming he will not have a negative EV outcome is dicey, I think. In other words if the game were played out over 100 games or so would you realize a profit or not. The other thing to consider is the look ahead BLT -6 and now ATL -3.5.  If you assume a QB ADJ of 5/6 points is there really enough of ATL recent good play and BLT other injuries to warrant another 3-4 point adjustment. Certainly the line has crossed a few key number type spots -- but is it an over-adjustment.   That is what has to be considered and not just the Huntley adjustment.

    Why do we act like we don't know Tyler Huntley? This guy has been the 1-B QB in Baltimore for years now. Started a total of 11 games for Baltimore, including 2 last year, and 5 games for Miami the year before that. He's made a start for Baltimore every year he's been on the team. We know what he can do. He's not a shootout QB, and he's not going to win you games on his own. But if the Defense shuts the other team down, he's good for like 17-20 points and can win. That doesn't tell you much, because we've seen what Penix has done lately, but what he's typical capable of, which could be either or. 

    Quote Originally Posted by garbagetime:

    Quote Originally Posted by Chauster: @garbagetime Very fishy spread a 4-0 undefeated team only favour by -2 in most books I see. Just feels like trap of the month rather than an early Xmas gift to take Minny.  Think it’s best to just stay away from this game. Well, Minnesota's QB isn't all that, and their two top WRs might be out. Their defense has been great. On the other side, Saints defense has been awful, but they're a surprise team, and they're at home. I wouldn't read too much into being undefeated.

    The Saints are a surprise team huh? A surprise team is 1-3? Looking back, them scoring in the second half on Detroit's defense might not have been as impressive as it initially looked. And their only win had a 15-0 4th quarter against Baltimore who has a history of letting down late against lower competition. 

     
    slamspurs
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    Posted: Oct. 11, 2026 - 10:44 AM ET #56

    Double Post. Removed

    Reply

    Double Post. Removed

     
    slamspurs
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    Posted: Oct. 11, 2026 - 11:07 AM ET #57

    Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

    I just looked into the games this morning, I did find I missed a Bounce Factor play on the Chargers this past week which the closing lines i saw was a push ar +7 but covers did have +6.5 , a loss. I think it was at +7.5 during the werk if I remember  correctly, so depending had i gotten the 7.5, I always wait to see if the line goes up or not. Given it was a push or loss on the closing line I could play on Chargers again this week, same with Packers being a push. I'll  most likely pass but side with both those teams ATS this week.

     

     

    Chargers play Andy Reid and the Chiefs off a bye next week. It's not a look ahead spot with Denver this week and staring down a possible 0-5 start to the season, which would essentially end it. But regardless I think they'll match up with KC well next week from both a skill and motivation standpoint. If they can't make the playoffs themselves, they'll give the Chiefs their all. 

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

    I just looked into the games this morning, I did find I missed a Bounce Factor play on the Chargers this past week which the closing lines i saw was a push ar +7 but covers did have +6.5 , a loss. I think it was at +7.5 during the werk if I remember  correctly, so depending had i gotten the 7.5, I always wait to see if the line goes up or not. Given it was a push or loss on the closing line I could play on Chargers again this week, same with Packers being a push. I'll  most likely pass but side with both those teams ATS this week.

     

     

    Chargers play Andy Reid and the Chiefs off a bye next week. It's not a look ahead spot with Denver this week and staring down a possible 0-5 start to the season, which would essentially end it. But regardless I think they'll match up with KC well next week from both a skill and motivation standpoint. If they can't make the playoffs themselves, they'll give the Chiefs their all. 

     
    theclaw
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    Posted: Oct. 11, 2026 - 12:03 PM ET #58

    Quote Originally Posted by kidd22:

    peace_5

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by kidd22:

    peace_5

     
    theclaw
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    Posted: Oct. 11, 2026 - 12:05 PM ET #59

    Quote Originally Posted by incognegro:

    Did you backtrack in the ravens bet when you realized Lamar is out or are you still on it?

    No, I like Ravens this week and with Falcons off 2 big wins and high scoring offense makes Ravens look even better.

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by incognegro:

    Did you backtrack in the ravens bet when you realized Lamar is out or are you still on it?

    No, I like Ravens this week and with Falcons off 2 big wins and high scoring offense makes Ravens look even better.

     
    theclaw
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    Posted: Oct. 11, 2026 - 12:06 PM ET #60

    Quote Originally Posted by BarrelledIn:

    What is the reasoning for Vikings, claw? You would normally be on the opposite of this play all the way - overrated undefeated team that cannot move the ball at all on the road vs a team set for positive regression after a humiliating prime time loss    Vikings are literally a nothing team that will collapse by season end. They can’t even find the end zone vs the worst team in the league and are due to lose

     

    I am playing my other system,  Vikings don't fit any regression methods i use.

    They do fit my other system which says to play them..............peace_5

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by BarrelledIn:

    What is the reasoning for Vikings, claw? You would normally be on the opposite of this play all the way - overrated undefeated team that cannot move the ball at all on the road vs a team set for positive regression after a humiliating prime time loss    Vikings are literally a nothing team that will collapse by season end. They can’t even find the end zone vs the worst team in the league and are due to lose

     

    I am playing my other system,  Vikings don't fit any regression methods i use.

    They do fit my other system which says to play them..............peace_5

     
    lmb4321
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    Posted: Oct. 11, 2026 - 12:08 PM ET #61

    @theclaw

     Like that Ravens play... Claw.....bol peace_5

    Reply

    @theclaw

     Like that Ravens play... Claw.....bol peace_5

     
    theclaw
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    Posted: Oct. 11, 2026 - 12:10 PM ET #62

    Quote Originally Posted by slamspurs:

    Quote Originally Posted by theclaw: I just looked into the games this morning, I did find I missed a Bounce Factor play on the Chargers this past week which the closing lines i saw was a push ar +7 but covers did have +6.5 , a loss. I think it was at +7.5 during the werk if I remember  correctly, so depending had i gotten the 7.5, I always wait to see if the line goes up or not. Given it was a push or loss on the closing line I could play on Chargers again this week, same with Packers being a push. I'll  most likely pass but side with both those teams ATS this week.     Chargers play Andy Reid and the Chiefs off a bye next week. It's not a look ahead spot with Denver this week and staring down a possible 0-5 start to the season, which would essentially end it. But regardless I think they'll match up with KC well next week from both a skill and motivation standpoint. If they can't make the playoffs themselves, they'll give the Chiefs their all.

     

    Interesting perspective, I like the Chargers this week, I could make them a play off The Bounce Factor go for with a push last week, but my other system has a play on the Chiefs this week but with a bye I play Chiefs next week ..............peace_5

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by slamspurs:

    Quote Originally Posted by theclaw: I just looked into the games this morning, I did find I missed a Bounce Factor play on the Chargers this past week which the closing lines i saw was a push ar +7 but covers did have +6.5 , a loss. I think it was at +7.5 during the werk if I remember  correctly, so depending had i gotten the 7.5, I always wait to see if the line goes up or not. Given it was a push or loss on the closing line I could play on Chargers again this week, same with Packers being a push. I'll  most likely pass but side with both those teams ATS this week.     Chargers play Andy Reid and the Chiefs off a bye next week. It's not a look ahead spot with Denver this week and staring down a possible 0-5 start to the season, which would essentially end it. But regardless I think they'll match up with KC well next week from both a skill and motivation standpoint. If they can't make the playoffs themselves, they'll give the Chiefs their all.

     

    Interesting perspective, I like the Chargers this week, I could make them a play off The Bounce Factor go for with a push last week, but my other system has a play on the Chiefs this week but with a bye I play Chiefs next week ..............peace_5

     
    theclaw
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    Posted: Oct. 11, 2026 - 12:18 PM ET #63

    Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams:

    TC, please discuss the NYJ.  I know you designated them as a Suprise Team after Week 1, but they only had 3 wins last season and they have now lost 3 straight. CLV looks overvalued (CLV is 3-1 SU but ranked only #22 by Jeff Sagarin and only #29 by Ken Massey) and I lean toward fading them this week even though the NYJ look weak.

     

    Yes I like Jets this week dog. Seems Browns getting some public love after the public did fade then 1st 3 weeks.

    Would lean more to Jets here in this game.

    The Jets were 1 of the top 3 biggest performers  week 1, of which there is almost always at least 1 team that turns out to be a surprise team.

    But that does not mean all 3 teams will, unfortunately I can not get it down to 1 team other then the best plays as a surprise team are teams off a 10 win season as they are already at least a decent good team.

    Of the top 3 there were no teams off a 10 win season, one of the rare times this has happened but there still can be a surprise team out of the 3 teams .......

    Jets, Ravens, KC

    There have been big surprise stories of teams off 6 wins making the championship game and almost making the SB.

    I'm  not sure if there has been a team off 3 wins which I think is what Jets had last year get that far into championship game  but they can still be a surprise team by being in contention for a playoff spot.

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams:

    TC, please discuss the NYJ.  I know you designated them as a Suprise Team after Week 1, but they only had 3 wins last season and they have now lost 3 straight. CLV looks overvalued (CLV is 3-1 SU but ranked only #22 by Jeff Sagarin and only #29 by Ken Massey) and I lean toward fading them this week even though the NYJ look weak.

     

    Yes I like Jets this week dog. Seems Browns getting some public love after the public did fade then 1st 3 weeks.

    Would lean more to Jets here in this game.

    The Jets were 1 of the top 3 biggest performers  week 1, of which there is almost always at least 1 team that turns out to be a surprise team.

    But that does not mean all 3 teams will, unfortunately I can not get it down to 1 team other then the best plays as a surprise team are teams off a 10 win season as they are already at least a decent good team.

    Of the top 3 there were no teams off a 10 win season, one of the rare times this has happened but there still can be a surprise team out of the 3 teams .......

    Jets, Ravens, KC

    There have been big surprise stories of teams off 6 wins making the championship game and almost making the SB.

    I'm  not sure if there has been a team off 3 wins which I think is what Jets had last year get that far into championship game  but they can still be a surprise team by being in contention for a playoff spot.

     
    DogbiteWilliams
    DogbiteWilliams
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    Posts: 6492
    Posted: Oct. 11, 2026 - 4:59 PM ET #64

    @theclaw

    Thanks for your reply; I did act without reading it.  I did bet NYJ -2.5 and CLV TT Under 19.5 late last night because I thought CLV's OFF was overrated.

    I am with you on BAL tonight; I acted late and got +3.5/-115.

    Fly high, Ravens.

    Reply

    @theclaw

    Thanks for your reply; I did act without reading it.  I did bet NYJ -2.5 and CLV TT Under 19.5 late last night because I thought CLV's OFF was overrated.

    I am with you on BAL tonight; I acted late and got +3.5/-115.

    Fly high, Ravens.

     
    theclaw
    theclaw
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    Posts: 12218
    Posted: Oct. 11, 2026 - 8:15 PM ET #65

    Need Ravens tonight  , for a nice bounce back off last weeks losing record for my other system.

    The 2 possible Bounce Factor plays went 1-1 with Chargers were in a good position to cover but lost it at the end.

    Reply

    Need Ravens tonight  , for a nice bounce back off last weeks losing record for my other system.

    The 2 possible Bounce Factor plays went 1-1 with Chargers were in a good position to cover but lost it at the end.

     
    theclaw
    theclaw
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    Posts: 12218
    Posted: Oct. 11, 2026 - 8:16 PM ET #66

    Quote Originally Posted by lmb4321:

    @theclaw  Like that Ravens play... Claw.....bol

    peace_5

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by lmb4321:

    @theclaw  Like that Ravens play... Claw.....bol

    peace_5

     
    theclaw
    theclaw
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    Posts: 12218
    Posted: Oct. 11, 2026 - 8:18 PM ET #67

    Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams:

    @theclaw Thanks for your reply; I did act without reading it.  I did bet NYJ -2.5 and CLV TT Under 19.5 late last night because I thought CLV's OFF was overrated. I am with you on BAL tonight; I acted late and got +3.5/-115. Fly high, Ravens.

    Very nice ...........peace_5

    Jets hung in there and got it done.

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams:

    @theclaw Thanks for your reply; I did act without reading it.  I did bet NYJ -2.5 and CLV TT Under 19.5 late last night because I thought CLV's OFF was overrated. I am with you on BAL tonight; I acted late and got +3.5/-115. Fly high, Ravens.

    Very nice ...........peace_5

    Jets hung in there and got it done.

     
    Mskeets
    Mskeets
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    Posts: 2569
    Posted: Oct. 11, 2026 - 8:18 PM ET #68

    Tip my cap.  

    Reply

    Tip my cap.  

     
    sportschat
    sportschat
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    Posts: 16697
    Posted: Oct. 11, 2026 - 8:32 PM ET #69

    Let’s get the Ravens  peace_5

    Reply

    Let’s get the Ravens  peace_5

     
    kimoinsd808
    kimoinsd808
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    Joined: Apr, 2008
    Posts: 6542
    Posted: Oct. 11, 2026 - 11:53 PM ET #70

    an_cheers

    Bitcoin, not crypto.
    Reply

    an_cheers

     
    incognegro
    incognegro
    Rookie
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Dec, 2009
    Posts: 908
    Posted: Oct. 12, 2026 - 12:53 AM ET #71

    Good job, claw. Thanks!

    Reply

    Good job, claw. Thanks!

     
    DogbiteWilliams
    DogbiteWilliams
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    Posted: Oct. 12, 2026 - 1:40 AM ET #72

    Congratulations.

    Reply

    Congratulations.

     
    sportschat
    sportschat
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    Posts: 16697
    Posted: Oct. 12, 2026 - 8:07 AM ET #73

    Well done  an_cheers

    Reply

    Well done  an_cheers

     
    JackDragonJack
    JackDragonJack
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Jul, 2025
    Posts: 355
    Posted: Oct. 12, 2026 - 12:49 PM ET #74

    an_praise

    Reply

    an_praise

     
     
    theclaw
    theclaw
    All-Star
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    Joined: May, 2008
    Posts: 12218
    Posted: Oct. 12, 2026 - 1:46 PM ET #75

    @Mskeets..........peace_5

     

    @sportschat..........peace_5

     

    @kimoinsd808..........peace_5

     

    @incognegro...........peace_5

     

    @DogbiteWilliams...........peace_5

     

     @JackDragonJack............peace_5

     

    Thanks for the kind words everyone ........peace_5

     

     

     

    Reply

    @Mskeets..........peace_5

     

    @sportschat..........peace_5

     

    @kimoinsd808..........peace_5

     

    @incognegro...........peace_5

     

    @DogbiteWilliams...........peace_5

     

     @JackDragonJack............peace_5

     

    Thanks for the kind words everyone ........peace_5

     

     

     

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