Posted:
#26
@Digitalkarma
i just don't see them regress just yet... after 2 games scoring over 30 plus points.. they'll keep going for 1 or 2 more games imo
NFL WEEK 5 ........................2026
Posted:
#27
@yessir4u
Of course I understand the idea that undefeated teams are ripe to lose, but the Vikings aren't playing at the limits of their abilities, which is what you usually see before regression. They didn't cover against Miami because Hockenson slid at the 2 yard line with two minutes left (the right play), but also because they couldn't get their offense untracked. You have to figure that the Saints D gives them an opportunity to actually get in the end zone, which they haven't done in a whilw.
Posted:
#28
@theclaw
I haven't looked at the Ravens-Falcons game in depth yet, but I'm in agreement with you. Tyler Huntley ain't that bad as a backup to Lamar Jackson. A full weeks of practice with the ones and I think he'll do just fine.
As for Minnesota, their defense has allowed just 29 points total in their last three games and for the season they're allowing just 289.3 yards a game. But their offense stinks. They're averaging just 262.8 yards a game, and Kyler Murray doesn't look any better here than he did in Arizona. Plus, Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison are both listed as questionable. I'm leaning slightly towards the Saints here but I'm not in love with it. BOL brother! 
Posted:
#30
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:
My Other System ............ 2-3 Ravens +3 (-115) over Falcons ---- 1.15 units Vikings -2 (-117) over Saints --- 1.17 units I see Vikes at -1.5 but I can't get it so i lay extra juice to get the -2. Ravens are interesting as we lost on them ATS last week and now they are back-to-back plays, very good spot to back the Ravens this week. The method does have a play on the Jags but with a large line movement I don't like betting into these, had I got it early I'd of taken it but I'll wait and see on the Jags. I can get -6 with extra juice, looks like it's going to -7, I'd think the sharps will hit that +7 if not before.
My Other System ............ 2-3 Ravens +3 (-115) over Falcons ---- 1.15 units Vikings -2 (-117) over Saints --- 1.17 units I see Vikes at -1.5 but I can't get it so i lay extra juice to get the -2. Ravens are interesting as we lost on them ATS last week and now they are back-to-back plays, very good spot to back the Ravens this week. The method does have a play on the Jags but with a large line movement I don't like betting into these, had I got it early I'd of taken it but I'll wait and see on the Jags. I can get -6 with extra juice, looks like it's going to -7, I'd think the sharps will hit that +7 if not before.
BetUS (my third book) has Vikings -1 @ -120, even while I'm seeing other books go to -2.5
Posted:
#32
Quote Originally Posted by Chauster:
@garbagetime Very fishy spread a 4-0 undefeated team only favour by -2 in most books I see. Just feels like trap of the month rather than an early Xmas gift to take Minny. Think it’s best to just stay away from this game.
@garbagetime Very fishy spread a 4-0 undefeated team only favour by -2 in most books I see. Just feels like trap of the month rather than an early Xmas gift to take Minny. Think it’s best to just stay away from this game.
Well, Minnesota's QB isn't all that, and their two top WRs might be out. Their defense has been great.
On the other side, Saints defense has been awful, but they're a surprise team, and they're at home.
I wouldn't read too much into being undefeated.
Posted:
#36
Quote Originally Posted by Ppkay:
Careful vikings play. Vikings are undefeated and are playing a team that just got demolished Monday. About as easy as a pick can get for the favorite. Especially at less than a FG. I dont recommend taking the saints ever. But seems like a spot one should.
Careful vikings play. Vikings are undefeated and are playing a team that just got demolished Monday. About as easy as a pick can get for the favorite. Especially at less than a FG. I dont recommend taking the saints ever. But seems like a spot one should.
Yes on the surface it does appear to be a spot for Saints but when this method speaks I listen.......
.........
Posted:
#39
Quote Originally Posted by Chauster:
This spread Minny-1.5 or -2 depend where you look doesn’t make sense at all, Saints suck badly and struggled defensively and offensively last 2 games I watched them played and Minny is undefeated and now only less than a fg favorite absolutely makes zero sense, this is so fishy and the bookmaker knows no one in their right mind would take the Saints only getting 2 pts, if this spread was Minny-3 or -3.5+105 it would makes sense since they are on the road but Minny-1.5 or -2 just stinks and doesn’t add up. Is this an early Xmas gift from the bookmaker or is this the trap of the month?
This spread Minny-1.5 or -2 depend where you look doesn’t make sense at all, Saints suck badly and struggled defensively and offensively last 2 games I watched them played and Minny is undefeated and now only less than a fg favorite absolutely makes zero sense, this is so fishy and the bookmaker knows no one in their right mind would take the Saints only getting 2 pts, if this spread was Minny-3 or -3.5+105 it would makes sense since they are on the road but Minny-1.5 or -2 just stinks and doesn’t add up. Is this an early Xmas gift from the bookmaker or is this the trap of the month?
From that perspective yes looks fishy, let's see if the public bites big on Vikes by weeks end .......
Posted:
#40
@Boisestateand8
Tyler Huntley ain't that bad as a backup to Lamar Jackson
Maybe, maybe not. He is capable, but they just cannot do the same things with him. He also cannot get them a big lead as easily nor come from behind as easily.
Jackson is easily worth 5 points -- maybe even 6 points -- to the spread over Huntley.
That is not to say that Huntley cannot do it for a game or two. But over a longer period assuming he will not have a negative EV outcome is dicey, I think.
In other words if the game were played out over 100 games or so would you realize a profit or not.
The other thing to consider is the look ahead BLT -6 and now ATL -3.5. If you assume a QB ADJ of 5/6 points is there really enough of ATL recent good play and BLT other injuries to warrant another 3-4 point adjustment.
Certainly the line has crossed a few key number type spots -- but is it an over-adjustment.
That is what has to be considered and not just the Huntley adjustment.
Posted:
#41
Quote Originally Posted by garbagetime:
Quote Originally Posted by garbagetime: Quote Originally Posted by lmb4321: @Chauster Trap game... Just don't see this. The Vikings have a bye the following week, while the Saints next travel to Jersey to play the Giants, and then to Paris to play the Steelers. This is a winnable game for them at home? Also, the Vikings' previous game, against Miami, was a trap game.
Quote Originally Posted by garbagetime: Quote Originally Posted by lmb4321: @Chauster Trap game... Just don't see this. The Vikings have a bye the following week, while the Saints next travel to Jersey to play the Giants, and then to Paris to play the Steelers. This is a winnable game for them at home? Also, the Vikings' previous game, against Miami, was a trap game.
Vikes did not look very impressive VS what could be considered the worst team in the league which maybe why the line is under -3...........
Posted:
#42
Quote Originally Posted by Digitalkarma:
Quote Originally Posted by Join4PforS: @Digitalkarma Considering the absence of LJax, maybe the bet to make is the UNDER? Perhaps Falcons due to regress offensively not put up another 30 pts outing and Ravens offense too but they will score some against the Ravens defense. I think Under would be a wise move
Quote Originally Posted by Join4PforS: @Digitalkarma Considering the absence of LJax, maybe the bet to make is the UNDER? Perhaps Falcons due to regress offensively not put up another 30 pts outing and Ravens offense too but they will score some against the Ravens defense. I think Under would be a wise move
Yep ............
Posted:
#43
Quote Originally Posted by yessir4u:
@Digitalkarma i just don't see them regress just yet... after 2 games scoring over 30 plus points.. they'll keep going for 1 or 2 more games imo
@Digitalkarma i just don't see them regress just yet... after 2 games scoring over 30 plus points.. they'll keep going for 1 or 2 more games imo
I agree they could go another game, maybe 2 at the most but this week is a good spot to start looking and considering the under on Falcons TT ..........
One more big week I'll most certainly be fading Falcons TT.
I could take it this week but kind of like next week better. Assuming they do it again which may not happen then I'd miss on a good oppurtunity.
Posted:
#44
Quote Originally Posted by garbagetime:
@yessir4u Of course I understand the idea that undefeated teams are ripe to lose, but the Vikings aren't playing at the limits of their abilities, which is what you usually see before regression. They didn't cover against Miami because Hockenson slid at the 2 yard line with two minutes left (the right play), but also because they couldn't get their offense untracked. You have to figure that the Saints D gives them an opportunity to actually get in the end zone, which they haven't done in a whilw.
@yessir4u Of course I understand the idea that undefeated teams are ripe to lose, but the Vikings aren't playing at the limits of their abilities, which is what you usually see before regression. They didn't cover against Miami because Hockenson slid at the 2 yard line with two minutes left (the right play), but also because they couldn't get their offense untracked. You have to figure that the Saints D gives them an opportunity to actually get in the end zone, which they haven't done in a whilw.
So true ...........
Posted:
#45
I just looked into the games this morning, I did find I missed a Bounce Factor play on the Chargers this past week which the closing lines i saw was a push ar +7 but covers did have +6.5 , a loss.
I think it was at +7.5 during the werk if I remember correctly, so depending had i gotten the 7.5, I always wait to see if the line goes up or not.
Given it was a push or loss on the closing line I could play on Chargers again this week, same with Packers being a push.
I'll most likely pass but side with both those teams ATS this week.
Posted:
#46
The another game i saw was Falcons off 2 big wins by 21 pts as a dog in both and scoring 35 & 45 pts.
This is not sustainable for long.
It does not fit a Bounce Factor fade as we need 3 games minimums, so 1 more game of Falcons doing well and it most likely will fit the BF.
However, if the team is not amoung the best teams and is mediocre or maybe a bit above mediocre then we could fade that team after 2 games as only the best teams can reach strong performances over 3 games or more to qualify as a BF fade.
Will Falcons be amoung the best teams ? I doubt it .
If we look in other areas it shows the same thing, Penix with a 113 QBPR when his career average is 88.
He has a monster 10.2 ave per pass which would put him amoung if not the very best all-time.
Falcons PR II in his 2 starts is off the charts, easily the best of all-time by a very wide margin.
Not sustainable people, play has to be fading Falcons this week or pass on this game.
Great spot for My Other System to pick Ravens and they happen to be playing Falcons.
Posted:
#47
Quote Originally Posted by Raiders22:
@Boisestateand8 Tyler Huntley ain't that bad as a backup to Lamar Jackson Maybe, maybe not. He is capable, but they just cannot do the same things with him. He also cannot get them a big lead as easily nor come from behind as easily. Jackson is easily worth 5 points -- maybe even 6 points -- to the spread over Huntley. That is not to say that Huntley cannot do it for a game or two. But over a longer period assuming he will not have a negative EV outcome is dicey, I think. In other words if the game were played out over 100 games or so would you realize a profit or not. The other thing to consider is the look ahead BLT -6 and now ATL -3.5. If you assume a QB ADJ of 5/6 points is there really enough of ATL recent good play and BLT other injuries to warrant another 3-4 point adjustment. Certainly the line has crossed a few key number type spots -- but is it an over-adjustment. That is what has to be considered and not just the Huntley adjustment.
@Boisestateand8 Tyler Huntley ain't that bad as a backup to Lamar Jackson Maybe, maybe not. He is capable, but they just cannot do the same things with him. He also cannot get them a big lead as easily nor come from behind as easily. Jackson is easily worth 5 points -- maybe even 6 points -- to the spread over Huntley. That is not to say that Huntley cannot do it for a game or two. But over a longer period assuming he will not have a negative EV outcome is dicey, I think. In other words if the game were played out over 100 games or so would you realize a profit or not. The other thing to consider is the look ahead BLT -6 and now ATL -3.5. If you assume a QB ADJ of 5/6 points is there really enough of ATL recent good play and BLT other injuries to warrant another 3-4 point adjustment. Certainly the line has crossed a few key number type spots -- but is it an over-adjustment. That is what has to be considered and not just the Huntley adjustment.
Huntley's stats from last year say otherwise. He had a passer rating of over 103, completing 77% of his passes in five games, and while not the running threat Jackson is he still has scrambling ability. He didn't light up the scoreboard last week when he came in, but with a full week of practice with the starting unit he'll be fine. Major over adjustment in the line in my opinion. We're not talking Cooper Rush here. As for the Falcons, they throttled a bad Packers team in a Thursday night game and had three more days of prep time before throttling the Saints on Monday night. Now they're playing on a short week. I haven't looked at the injury situation in depth yet, so right now I'm just leaning Baltimore, but they're definitely on my radar. BOL
Posted:
#48
@theclaw
The Saints awful defense will make most QB in this league look great so that’s why ATL looked great last game. That’s also why this spread Minny-2 also doesn’t make sense vs Saints, Saint have an awful defense and playing undefeated team, really fishy or just an early Xmas gift from the books to take Minny you decide.
Posted:
#49
Quote Originally Posted by Chauster:
@theclaw The Saints awful defense will make most QB in this league look great so that’s why ATL looked great last game. That’s also why this spread Minny-2 also doesn’t make sense vs Saints, Saint have an awful defense and playing undefeated team, really fishy or just an early Xmas gift from the books to take Minny you decide.
@theclaw The Saints awful defense will make most QB in this league look great so that’s why ATL looked great last game. That’s also why this spread Minny-2 also doesn’t make sense vs Saints, Saint have an awful defense and playing undefeated team, really fishy or just an early Xmas gift from the books to take Minny you decide.
Posted:
#50
I saw online this morning a trend on the Bucs last night that was 8-0 beating the spread by average of 10.2 per game.
The same trend with different parameters is on the Texans 18-3-1 ATS
Has to do with being winless, I'll try and get the exact parameters.
For Texans it has to do with coming off a game as a favorite.
For Bucs it was as a +6 dog or more.
I think on the road and winless in week 4 or after.
I'll try to get exact parameters if I remember and find it
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