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NFL PLAYOFFS...........................2017

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Posted: Feb. 6, 2017 - 7:48 AM ET #101

Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

Favorite to win Super Bowl..................................................The Pats..................

My favorites to win a sport in the 4 sports I track, NFL ,NBA ,Arena Football and WNBA has won 9 of last 15 times.

And have made the championship game in their sport 13 of 15 times.

The one down-side to Pats is they come in playing on a unsustainable level of play, they have entered the "regression zone" as I like to call it.

They may have to pull out a game in which the struggle and catch some bad breaks and this might hurt our chances with the Pats.

Pats come in the hottest team winning 7 straight along with Steelers 7 straight wins but Pats have covered 5 straight, not good indicators ATS going forward.

However we can look at regression has not worked very well this season , the bounce factor had it's worse season ever but we still need to respect this very powerful method.

When we add everything up the Pats are still the cream of the crop, they'll get a easy opp in their first game and then will need to beat either Steelers or KC at home.

I'd give Falcons a very good shot to win the NFC , will say they will be the best value team to back this postseason.

Value with futures and ATS in their games.

Of their 5 losses 4 are 1 score close losses that could go either way and are more random events and not likely as repeatable as blowout 14 point wins which Falcons are 6-0 in those, best in the league .

Cowboys are 7-2 in 1 score close wins =+5

I'll side with Falcons to pull out a close win over Cowboys in the NFC championship game as close wins will once again prove to be random events.

Well guys, our fav took the long hard road to get there but they did it.

That's now 10 times of 16 tries our fav has gone on to win the title past 4 1/2 years.

And that was what I was afraid of coming in, Pats getting to many lucky plays would have a regrression and boy oh boy did they.

Everything went wrong for them, dropped passes, blown coverages, pick 6, fumble, you name it and it went wrong.

Pats somehow were able to overcome it and then get a few lucky plays themselves to complete the comeback.

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Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

Favorite to win Super Bowl..................................................The Pats..................

My favorites to win a sport in the 4 sports I track, NFL ,NBA ,Arena Football and WNBA has won 9 of last 15 times.

And have made the championship game in their sport 13 of 15 times.

The one down-side to Pats is they come in playing on a unsustainable level of play, they have entered the "regression zone" as I like to call it.

They may have to pull out a game in which the struggle and catch some bad breaks and this might hurt our chances with the Pats.

Pats come in the hottest team winning 7 straight along with Steelers 7 straight wins but Pats have covered 5 straight, not good indicators ATS going forward.

However we can look at regression has not worked very well this season , the bounce factor had it's worse season ever but we still need to respect this very powerful method.

When we add everything up the Pats are still the cream of the crop, they'll get a easy opp in their first game and then will need to beat either Steelers or KC at home.

I'd give Falcons a very good shot to win the NFC , will say they will be the best value team to back this postseason.

Value with futures and ATS in their games.

Of their 5 losses 4 are 1 score close losses that could go either way and are more random events and not likely as repeatable as blowout 14 point wins which Falcons are 6-0 in those, best in the league .

Cowboys are 7-2 in 1 score close wins =+5

I'll side with Falcons to pull out a close win over Cowboys in the NFC championship game as close wins will once again prove to be random events.

Well guys, our fav took the long hard road to get there but they did it.

That's now 10 times of 16 tries our fav has gone on to win the title past 4 1/2 years.

And that was what I was afraid of coming in, Pats getting to many lucky plays would have a regrression and boy oh boy did they.

Everything went wrong for them, dropped passes, blown coverages, pick 6, fumble, you name it and it went wrong.

Pats somehow were able to overcome it and then get a few lucky plays themselves to complete the comeback.

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Posted: Feb. 6, 2017 - 8:09 AM ET #102

Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

Both methods above are new to me last couple of years. They use indicators with strong predictive value and I want to include them in my PR, trying to determine the amount of weight each indicator carries is a big project of research.

or make another PR , not sure yet which way is best.

Last couple of days I worked up another PR using yds/pt X 3.5, yds/QBPR X2, QBPR diff , and total yards diff into a formula and so far I like this method the best.

Pats -12.17 over Falcons

and not because it picks Pats but coz it is 13-2 ATS since 85 with a 5 pt diff to closing line.

If we look at other Pats SB's involving bye teams...................

2001 Rams -17.42 but Pats getting +14 so no play

2004 Eagles -5.13, Eagles lost but covered +7

2014 Seahawks -5.28, closing line was Pats +1, so no play.

This is the very 1st time Pats played oa bye team being far better in key indicators like yds/pt, QBPR diff and total yards diff.

Should not be a surprise the Pats played close games finding a way to win those games , but if the Pats win this game they just my cover the -12.17 line.

10 of 15 favs on this method who won SU covered my line.

of course we had a number of dogs who were fav who covered but lost SU like the 2004 Eagles.

the method had 8 dogs with a 5pt diff to closing line and went 7-1 ATS, losing only with 98 Falcons -1.38 over Denver -7 and Den won by 14 i think.

If Pats win this game they this likely will not be another close SB for them.................................

Well, with Pats falling behind it turned out to be a close SB but not a 3 or 4 point win and not a SU but lose ATS game as the Pats have done.

I said Pats" IF" they should win would be at least 7 and likely 10 or more, well they did get it by 6 getting the cover.

This new method using yds/pt, yds/QBPR, QBPR, total yds now goes to 14-2 ATS since 85

And looks like well worth looking more into it for playoff games.

Team better in both yds/pt and total yards now 9-1 ATS.

Effeciency plus volume.

And that's exactly what Pats did was win volume .

Falcons dominated passing effeicency..............

QBPR, Ryan 144.1, Brady 95.2, by 48.9

ave/pass, Ryan 8.6, Brady 6.5 , by 2.1 .

But it was Pats who dominated volume, 546 yds to 344 = 202

YDS/QBPR......Falcons 2.39 yds for every 1 pt of QBPR

Pats..............................5.74

Pats crushed Falcons turning their efff into yards.

Falcons had effeinecy without volume, does not win SB.

For some reason I can never spell effeincy right.

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Posted: Feb. 6, 2017 - 8:23 AM ET #103

Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

PLAYOFF ONLY PR I........................................

Falcons 20.22

Pats 13.03

Falcons by 7.19

My lines lean is 15-4-1 ATS since 1997 when the surprise teams from wild card round began their assault on the SB.

6 pt diff to closing .................10-4 ATS

PLAYOFF ONLY VALUE ...................................

value tells us how a teams play on the field compares with the final score, did a team win the battles on the field to justify the final score ?

Falcons +.72

Pats (-7.8)

Falcons by 8.52

since 1997 team better in value is...............13-6-1 ATS

5 pt diff in value...........................................6-3-1 ATS

4.5 DIFF.....................................................9-3-1 ATS.

Seems to indicate huge advantage Falcons............................

we'll breakdown playoff defenses based on opp and we'll compare past no.1 offenses VS no.1 defenses and see if there is any difference in this game that could create an edge for us.

coming next few days.......................................

Playoff only PR has had a great run since 97 but has lost past 2 years now but it took a miracle 25 pt comeback to do it.

But as I suspected the Pats due a regression then getting it to some degree VS Texans might leave the method not as good but we still need to respect such a proven good method.

Info just like teams has regressions, and very likely playoff only PR could come back strong next season.

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Posted: Feb. 6, 2017 - 8:25 AM ET #104

Thanks for all the comments and good luck in the days ahead.

Will be back next year NFL, and the coming NBA playoffs and Arena Football playoffs untill then boys................................

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Posted: Feb. 6, 2017 - 2:50 PM ET #105

Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

WTF, having problems posting on site.

Just did a big write-up on battle tested teams but it did not post.

Oh well, not doing it again.

Claw, can you at least give a summary of your findings. I am very curious about this. Thanks

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