NFL PLAYOFFS...........................2017

2-0 ATS , won 9 units

leans ........................3-0-1

We called Falcons the best value play in playoffs and they've beat the closing line  by 9.5 and 17 points.

All told we were..........................4-0 ATS and  leans 7-0-1 riding the Falcons.

Not to shabby for a 1-4 QB  and Falcon team ...........

Steelers up next...........................

Well, both top offensive teams did it after having the season play-out with offensive passing stats having much higher predictive results just like last years defensive teams doing it.

Maybe next year I will come-up with a PR that is taylored to what was important in regular season carrying more weight.

We did it again guys, that's 14 of the past 16 favorites have made the championship game.

9 of previous 15 have won the title in their respective sports, haven't gone over things yet but just taking a brief look , everything points to Pats.

As strong as the Steelers passing offense did look at times in regular season they were not a top 10 passing offense in any area but 1 and that by only 5/100 from being 11th and it showed in the game.

But hey, Steelers were one of our week 1 big performance teams, teams that finish in the top 3 for week 1 in PR II, these teams do have a fairly good track record of making at least  the championship game and they did it again this season. 

my lines....................

PR I..........Pats -.91 over Falcons 

PRII..........Pats -1.72 over Falcons

Looks like a pretty even game with my lines leaning Falcons on the spread.

Will you back the "proven winner" or the 1st time team ? 

Or the better team ?

Will be back with alot more info and my playoff only lines.........................

I used to be on here a lot.  I also used to chime in quite often.  There's just too many strokes on here insulting people that don't agree with them, or have a different way of looking at things.

Reading your information has gotten my juices flowing again!  I love it.  

Do you do NBA?  Also, can you start a new thread for the SB?

Thanks, T

Yes I do NBA, last season we did quite well in playoffs.  Had some very strong runs

you can check my areana football thread , still there, where I called for Philly to beat one of the most successful teams in arena history in the championship game.

A team so hot it came-off straight wins of 40 pts or more and had been in something like 4 of last 5 championship games and won 3 including a win over Philly.

Philly opened +7 and with every expert and public joe on Zona drove the line to +12.5, I rode a best bet play on Philly and a huge Philly ML based on my power ratings and Philly set the record for largest 1st quarter lead in arena bowl history up 21 pts,  and we rolled to a huge score that day.

Pats +5.88

Falcons +2.31

yds/pt is a very telling stat in super bowl's, the better team is 14-6 ATS (70%) in games involving bye teams or strong statistical wild card round teams but not the weak wild card round  teams who are the true surprise teams.

now, total yds diff is directly tied to yds/pt, because the fewer yds a team out-gains it's opp the much easier it is to have a better yds/pt, but along with the better yds/pt comes a smaller margin of victory for those teams which is not a good indicator.

when the same team has the better yds/pt and the better total yds diff they are 8-1 ATS (88.9%)

TOTAL YARDS DIFFERENTIAL..................................

Pats 59.81

Falcons 44.63

Pats better in both.

what I did was come-up with a formula that tries to balance the 2 stats and find the team better in combination of both.

Pats 14.8

Falcons 7.93

Pats by 6.87

This method I called bonus pts last years playoffs, unforetunately I could not find it this season , mostly because I was working 7 days a week and have been for quite some time.

It has a very strong ATS record throughout the playoffs with a 4.5 pt diff to closing line.

If the public pounds Falcons we could have a play on Pats. Line needs to drop to -2.

KC finished with a very strong yds/pt, 2cd behind only the Pats at +4.85 and much better then Pitt at +1.82.

But when we look at total yards we get...................

Pitt +30

KC (-25.5)

KC was crushed in total yds diff, and bye teams in this spot do not do well.

Now when we use the bonus pts formula we get...................

Pitt 5.73

KC 4.73

Pitt was the better team

When we give KC  3 PTS FOR BEING HOME we have KC -2 which was about the line and shows how misleading KC's huge advantage in yds/pt was.

when we look at Pats VS Pitt we have...............

Pats 14.8 - Pitt 5.73 = 9.07 +3 for home = Pats -12.07 

with a closing line of -5.5 we have a 6.57  huge diff which would of poin ted to Pats but unfortunately I could not find the info.

Another formula off this bonus pts method I include QBPR DIFF which is another great indicator, I use yds/QBPR diff, which gives us effienecy plus volume which is the key, effeinency without volume is KC , not good................

So basically we using effeinency plus volume with yds/pt and effeinency plus volume with QBPR . 

and we get...................................

Pats 22.38

Falcons 17.22

Pats -5.16

again, games involving bye teams or strong stats wild card round teams is 14-7-1 ATS in SB since 1985.

6 pt diff to closing line ............10-3 ATS.

If we throw-out the 6 pt diff games all other games are just 4-4-1 ATS.

The largest line this method produced was 94 9ers -30.04 over SD , actual line was 9ers -17 or -18. 9ers rolled to cover.

The largest diff between this method line and actual line was, 85 Bears -23.25 over Pats, line was -9 or a 14.25 diff.

The next largest  to actual line was, 88 Bengals -6.33 over 9ers, line Bengals +7, a 13.33 diff, and Bengals led the game late when Joe did his last minute magic scoring on a 92 yard drive  with like 38 seconds left to win by 4 but give the Bengals the near upset but easy cover.

Another example of backing the inexperience better team over the 2 time  SB proven QB and team, history is littered with these examples.

Since 2000 a SB winning QB and team just 3 years or less remover from winning the SB VS a 1st time time.....the proven winner is 0-6 ATS.

Brady in his very first ever playoffs with  zero experience  went 3-0 ATS, Brady as a SB winner just 2 years later went 1-2 ATS in playoffs and remains to this very day the only SB winning QB to post a losing ATS record throughout the postseason on his way to winning the SB since the league went to 16 games and changed the rules to open-up the passing game.

When Brady became just the 8th QB to repeat in SB history he was just 3-3 ATS in those 2 historic seasons but 3-0 ATS as a non-proven winner.

Brady has never, not even once went 3-0 ATS throughout the postseason as a proven SB winner and he's had more oppurtunities then any other QB but yet did it his 1st ever time in playoffs.

If he can cover in SB he would do it for the very first time.

As a 3 time SB winner Brady went 0-3 ATS in 2007 season with an historic offense.\ and scored just 14 pts and lost to the team which scored the fewest amounrt of pts of any SB winner since going to 16 games in 1978,  only 17 pts needed to Beat a 3 time proven winning QB with an historical offense.

Hey, let's all back the proven winner..........................history does not support such things.........................

When we look at SB winners the better balanced team between offense and defense does win more often. 

Teams with great offenses and mediocre to weak defenses don't win SB titles.

And many times just like the 2007 Pats the offenses come up short when the going gets tough VS a very good defensive team with balance between offense and defense.

2013 Seahawks VS Broncos come to mind in a 43-8 beat-down on the great off but weak defensive team.

Pats easily have the stronger , better defense with Falcons ranking closer to the bottom , and remember Pats offense is no slouch, Brady has an historic QBPR himself this season, one of best in history, very much over-looked by many because of what Ryan has done but Brady with a far better defense in this game and that bodes quite well for the Pats.

History points to a huge advantage for Pats.......................

BONUS POINTS FORMULA......................................

since 85 with the bye teams or  stronger wild card round teams

17-7 SU

17-6-1 ATS

when the dog was favored  in the method.............

7-3 ATS

5-5 SU

when the favorite is favored in the method.................

10-3-1 ATS

12-2 SU

which is what we have this year with the 3 pt favorite Pats being favored in the method

I took a look at all SB's since 1990 using football-reference SOS which uses their SRS to judge SOS.

SRS for those who are not familar with it is a power rating using margin of victory plus strength of opponent's margin of victory, so in other words if you play weak teams you need to dominate them.

Here's the shocker for those who think SOS matters...........of the 52 teams to make the SB since 1990, 24 ranked 27th or worse in SOS.

Almost half the teams that get to SB played very weak schedules.

teams 30th ranked or worse are 4-6 ATS in SB.

teams with at least a 2 point diff are 5-6 ATS, the weaker team is slightly better with a bigger diff in SOS.

Some of those 2 pt diff games  involved weak surprise WC teams , so we throw those out and get................weaker teams are 3-4 ATS when bye teams or strong wild card teams

there were 4 SB which saw both teams ranked 27th or worse.

SOS is just like proven winners, there's nothing to it, just back the better team produces better results long term.

Here's a incredible  SB, 2004 Pats VS Eagles. .....................

SOS Pats 1.8, 9th best

Eagles (-2.3) 27th

To show the disparity between NFC and AFC, every team in NFC had a negative SOS, every team in the AFC had a positive SOS.

15 OF 16 teams in the NFC had a -1 or worse SOS

14 of 16 teams in the AFC had a +1 or better SOS

Wow, the AFC was heads and shoulders better then the NFC in SOS and had a 2-time SB proven winner QB and team...................and the Eagles covered the spread.

PR I................

Eagles 9.89

Pats 8.46

Eagles by 1.43.....Eagles +7 have a huge 8.43 over closing line and we have a play with 6 pt diff.  ............8-4 ATS in SB with a 6 pt diff.

Playoff only PR I.........................

Eagles 20.42

Pats 16.37

Eagles by 4.04 ...... getting +7.........6 pt diff 9-4 ATS.

Back the better team using key effeincy indicators is your better play.

Here's a interesting team.........the Bills who made 4 straight SB's

1990 SOS ranked 32cd

1991 SOS ranked 32cd

1992 SOS 30TH

1993 SOS 28TH

PR I.........................

1990 Bills 11.53 - Gmen 11.2 = Bills -.33, Gmen +6.5 to  +7 we have a 6pt diff on Gmen, and a winner.

Dead even game play-out exactly like that regardless of SOS

1991 Skins 18.1 - Bills 10.31 = Skins -7.79, Skins -7,  no play

1992 Boys 10.08 - Bills 5.98 = Boys -4.1, Boys -6.5,  no play

1993 Boys 10.28 - Bills 4.58 = Boys -5.6, Boys -10.5, no play

with a 5 pt diff in my lines teams are 15-7 SU

2 pt fav or more are 20-10 SU 

When we adjust PRI for better defense we get 

90 Gmen -4.77

91 Skins by 13.17

92 Boys by 6.32

93 Boys by 6.04 

pretty good favs over Bills each year with 2 games being 6 pt diff to closing line and both winners.

2004 Eagles adjusted for better defense becomes Eagles -1.15, still a 6 pt diff. but a close game is indicated by the small line .

While the Eagles lost SU as a very small fav, all 4 teams playing Bills as 6 pt or more favs won SU.

The Bills while playing weak schedules could not out-play their opponents by much, how they played those opponents was the better indicator.

The Eagles out-played their opps  more then the Pats did so playing a far easier schedule , how they played that schedule was more important then the easy schedule itself.

And this is how I determine things like.................

when the team with a easy schedule is the better team they cover

when the team with the easy schedule is not the better team they fail to cover

back the better team..............................

PR I............................

A fav of 2 or less since 1977 is.................2-5 SU.

These 2 teams are very evenly matched and in this case the lower ranked team has won more often over history.

DEFENSE ADJUSTED.................................

PR II already includes extra credit for better defense, PRI we adjust for better defense in SB.

Pats with a top rated defense and Falcons a bottom of league defense...................BUT Pats receive just 2.88 pts.

Pats - 3.79 over Falcons

since 1977 teams favored b y 5 pts or more are ......18-5 SU not including weak surprise WC round teams.

teams favored by 2 to 4.99 are ................4-3 SU

Basically the PR's give us no edge at all, it is just to close a matchup in this years SB.

Interesting that the Pats top rated defense compared to Falcons bottom rated defense only scores 2.88 pts...............

2013 Seahawks scored 7.24 pts over Broncos .

2002 Bucs scored 8.61 over Raiders.

2000 Ravens scored 3.1 over Giants but the Giants were a very good defensive team themselves.

1990 Giants scored 5.1 pts over Bills

1991 Skins scored 5.38 over Bills

1996 Packers scored 5.46 over Pats

Are the Pats that much better then Falcons in key eff indicators ?

defensive ave per pass att...........................

Pats 6.04, 7th

Falcons 6.17, 11th

don't see it there...........................

defensive QBPR.........................

Pats 84.4, 8th

Falcons 92.37, 22cd

we find a little bit here with a 7.97 diff, but not a huge diff you'd expect based on the rankings of the 2 teams, this pales compared to other defensive mismatches in other SB's.

seems to indicate Falcons might just be in this game with a chance to win SU........................................

Falcons 20.22

Pats 13.03

Falcons by 7.19

My lines lean  is 15-4-1 ATS since 1997 when the surprise teams from wild card round began their assault on the SB.

6 pt diff to closing .................10-4 ATS

PLAYOFF ONLY VALUE ...................................

value tells us how a teams play on the field compares with the final score, did a team win the battles on the field to justify the final score ?

Falcons +.72

Pats (-7.8)

Falcons by 8.52

since 1997 team better in value is...............13-6-1 ATS

5 pt diff in value...........................................6-3-1 ATS

4.5 DIFF.....................................................9-3-1 ATS.

Seems to indicate huge advantage Falcons............................

we'll breakdown playoff defenses based on opp and we'll compare past no.1 offenses VS no.1 defenses and see if there is any difference in this game that could create an edge for us.

coming next few days.......................................