NFL PLAYOFFS...........................2017

PR I  is more pass heavy using passing effiency  stats and counts offense and defense equally .

1. Pats 11.8

2. Falcons 10.89

3. Cowboys 8.17

4. KC 4.36

5. Steelers 4.35

6. Seahawks 2.95

    Raiders w/Carr 2.66

7. Giants 2.51

8. Packers 2.43

9. Dolphins 1.9

10. Raiders w/cook (-1.36)

11. Texans w/brock (-4.05)

12. Lions (-4.83)

MY LINES..........................................

find the difference then add 3 points to home team. These will stay the same throughout the playoffs. But we will have a playoff only line for the Super Bowl.

Steelers -5.45 over Dolphins

Texans -.31 over Raiders

Seahawks -10.78 over Lions

Packers -2.92 over Giants

we have a play with a 6 point difference to the closing line.

Raiders were not a very good team even with Carr playing, they actually got more points toward their PR from turnovers then any other stat , they were +16 on the season, not a good indicator going forward and I suspect may have lost their opening game at home even with Carr. had they got the bye.

They also led the league in close 1 score wins with 9 and had a +7 differential which led the league. I can see a huge regression for this team next season.

no plays at this point, we'd need the Dolphins to go up to +11.5 for a play which could happen if public starts banging Steelers this weekend . But likely won't.

Dolphins are tough to judge with Moore, he has not played much since 2011, but in very limited play this season had a better QBPR then Ryan and a far better ave per pass. 

To tough to judge we likely pass on the game even with a +11.5 line.

Alot of love for Steelers this postseason with SB talk and such, their strength is passing offense with Brown, but are they that good ?

If we look at passing effiency stats which are the best indicators Steelers rank only 8th in ave/pass att and 11th in QBPR and in yards per point another strong indicator they rank just 15th on offense.

Does not look like a explosive offense does it, they barely crack the top 10 in any key indicator, any they only do that by a slim .05.

The info suggest They may look explosive at times but likely are very inconsistent and make to many mistakes.

And that brings us to this................................................

Last season for the 1st time with following stats with high predictive value we found a rare happening as offense eff stats seem to be better predictors for the most part but not always better by big margins, when defense is better it might be only 2 or 3 % points better.

But last year defense eff stats were far better in regular season , well ahead of off eff stats, in ave per pass and QBPR with Panthers no. 1 in one and Broncos no.1 in other and they were also finished 1 and 2 in both defensive eff stats.

And met in SB.

This year is a complete reversal, off eff stats crush  def eff stats,  off ave/pass is 10.6% better predictors then def and Off QBPR is 8.6% better then def.

Possible this could be how the league decides to call games, what they chose to make a priority year to year base on how the game is evolving or it may not be anything but pure coincedence.

But the no.1 team in ave/pass , Falcons, Skins 2cd, Pats 3rd

No.1 team in QBPR, Falcons with Pats 2cd.

Will last season's defensive standouts repeat itself this season with offensive standouts ruling the day in postseason ?

this PR is based on balance with better defenses receiving extra credit and teams who don't turn the ball over on offense. winning each key stat battle receives a premimum credit even if by just a small amount . it's also based on common denominators of past SB champs.

1. Cowboys 10.83

2. Pats 9.27

3. Falcons 7.55

4. KC 4.51 

5. Packers 4.21

6. Steelers 3.87

7. Seahawks 3.79

8.  Raiders 3.55

9. Giants (-.37)

10. Dolphins (-.75)

11. Texans (-3)

12. Lions (-3.35) 

MY LINES.................................

Packers -7.58 over Giants

Seahawks -10.22 over Lions

Steelers -7.62 over Dolphins

Raiders -3.55 over Texans

we have a play with a 6 point diff to closing line.

Looks like we'd have 1 play on Raiders but with Carr's injury will pass on game. 

The PR do work even with injuries, I'd lean Raiders plus the points this weekend for now.

The no. 1 team in this balance heavy PR has a strong track record in playoffs. No no. 1 ranked team has finished with a losing ATS record since 2009 and many of those teams have made the SB..

I'll be back for more history on both PR later.

My favorites to win a sport in the 4 sports I track, NFL ,NBA ,Arena Football and WNBA has won 9 of last 15 times.

And have made the championship game in their sport 13 of 15 times.

The one down-side to Pats is they come in playing on a unsustainable level of play, they have entered the "regression zone" as I like to call it.

They may have to pull out a game in which the struggle and catch some bad breaks and this might hurt our chances with the Pats.

Pats come in the hottest team winning 7 straight along with Steelers 7 straight wins but Pats have  covered 5 straight, not good indicators ATS going forward.

However we can look at regression has not worked very well this season , the bounce factor had it's worse season ever but we still need to respect this very powerful method. 

When we add everything up the Pats are still the cream of the crop, they'll get a easy opp in their first game and then will need to beat either Steelers or KC at home.

I'd give Falcons a very good shot to win the NFC , will say they will be the best value team to back this postseason.

Value with futures and ATS in their games.

Of their 5 losses 4 are 1 score close losses that could go either way and are more random events and not likely as repeatable as blowout 14 point wins which Falcons are 6-0 in those, best in the league .

Cowboys are 7-2 in 1 score close wins =+5

I'll side with Falcons to pull out a close win over Cowboys in the NFC championship game as close wins will once again prove to be random events.

Texans defense layed a beat-down on Connor and the Raiders offense.

Texans pretty much dominated the game far more then final score indicates, winning by 28.17 and 27.7 in both the PR's.

That is ussually a good indicator for covering the spread next week and with Pats in the regression zone we might want to be careful with this game if Steelers win today.

It's only 1 game and VS a backup rookie QB but Texans did have the look of suprise teams from the wild card round off that game,  if they can pull off another win next week we will know alot more, but just setting the stage for next week with thoughts on the Texans at this point. 

In the other game both my lines had leans to Seahawks who rolled the worst team in playoffs in both PR's.

Backing my line leans in every game rarely finishes with a losing record but does go 2-2 more then any other result but next  most common result is 3-1.

1-1 in both PR's to this point with both PR leaning Dolphins and 1 PR leans Giants while other leans Packers.

I'll have more on this next round.

Line up to Steelers  -12 we have a play on Dolphins but with injury to starting QB, will have a lean to Dolphins today if Line stays 11.5 or above at closing and may take some small 2 or 3 unit action.

Many here like the Giants to be the big suprise story and make or win SB just because they did it before...twice.

They're hot coming in or never count-out a SB QB like Eli.

Let's take a look at the last 5 teams from wild card round to make SB and how they played coming into the playoffs..................................

2012 Ravens............... 0-1 in last game, then 1-1 in game 15 &16, then 1-2, 1-3 ,1-4 Ravens 1-4 in last 5 games coming into the playoffs yet even despite this people get so caught up in hot teams coming in they still say the Ravens were hot coming into playoffs years after Ravens won.

That is how strong that myth  holds people in it's grip.

2011 Giants.................2-0 last 2, then 2-1, 3-1, 3-2, 3-3, 3-4 last 7.

Giants were somewhat hot at 2-0 and 3-1.

2010 Packers.................2-0, 2-1, 2-2, 3-2, 3-3, 3-4 last 7.

Packers were somewhat hot at only 2-0.

2008 Zona...............1-0, 1-1, 1-2, 2-2, 2-3, 2-4 3-4 last 7. Not hot at all.

2007 Giants.................. 0-1, 1-1, 1-2, 2-2, 3-2, 3-3, 3-4 last 7.

Of last 5 teams from WC round only 2 came in as much as 2-0 and only 1 of 5 came in as much as 3-1.

2016 Giants....................1-0, 1-1, 2-1, 3-1, 3-2, 4-2, 5-2, none of those previous 5 teams came in to playoffs 4-2 or 5-2 like 2016 Giants, this would be far more rare for 2016 Giants to be the surprise story, not the norm.

How about previous SB experience for starting QB ?

Of thew 11 teams from the WC round to make the SB since their run began in 1997 season, and those 11 teams went 10-0-1 ATS in SB, ONLY 3 were QB'd by a SB experienced QB, 8 QB's were never in a SB.

Many of those QB's and never done anything previous in NFL, guys like Steve Mcnair, Jake Delhome who threw less then 90 passes before taking 2003 Panthers to SB, Dilfer, even 2007 Eli was considered at the time a huge disaapointment as the no.1 overall pick in the draft, he had done nothing in  NFL to that point. 

Backing proven winning QB's to take a surprise team to SB win is an exception not the rule.

Backing the Giants to make or win SB is very likely going to end in huge disappointment for those who follow these myths...............................

Dolphins +7 (+100) 1st half --- 1.1 unit to win 1 unit

1st half..............0-1 , lost 1.1 units

leans ...............0-1

And just like that the hot team with the 2 time SB QB coming out of the wild card round twice.................is gone.......................

Pats -18.85 over Texans

Falcons -10.94 over Seahawks

Cowboys -8.74 over Packers

KC -3.01 over Steelers

we have a play with a 6 point diff to closing line

since 2000 a 6 pt diff in divisional round is an insane 10-1 ATS going into last season.

have not updated that from last season yet, will try and get around to it this week

we have 1 play at this point on Falcons -4 or -4.5

my line leans since 2000  have finished.......................

2-2 ATS 7 times

3-1 ATS 6 times

2-1-1 ATS 1 time

1-3 ATS 1 time

not including last season.

leans on , Pats, Falcons, Cowboys, KC, all the home teams at this point.

back with alot more as the week goes on..............................

Pats -15.27 over Texans

Cowboys -9.62 over Packers

Falcons -6.76 over Seahawks

KC -3.64 over Steelers

we have a play with a 6 pt diff to closing line

the no.1 ranked team in PR II has made the SB in 6 of last 7 seasons (Cowboys) and has yet to have a losing ATS record throughout the playoffs.

Last season was the Panthers no. 1............ 2-1 ATS and made the SB.

The 2 PR's are both suggesting the best chance for a SU dog win is.....Steelers.

Will be back with more on that as week goes on.................

POWER RATINGS I...................................

8.5 favorites or better on my lines with a lean to the favorite ATS.................13-5 SU (72.2%) but just 9-9 ATS.

We have 3 teams at this point, Cowboys, Pats and Falcons.

We should win at least 2 games SU and possibly all 3. Pats look like a shoe-in SU winner, Falcons the likely other winner as more then 6 pt to closing line if it holds by kickoff....................23-7 ATS in all rounds since 2000...........10-1 ATS in divisional round.

Cowboys the no.1 ranked team in PR II which those teams have a strong history of success in 1st round. However a rookie QB , not sure how many rookie QB's were starters on those no. 1 ranked teams or maybe it won't matter with a strong offensive line and powerful running game.

We have a 10 unit (5 unit 1st half) best bet play on Falcons if the closing line is 4.5 or lower based on majority of books out there at SBR and such places.

If it goes above 4.5 then we have a 3 unit play (1 unit 1st half) on Falcons.

I'll be working all day today so won't be back to post it.

Will lean Falcons TT over 28 and 14 1st half

will lean game over 52 and 26 1st half.

will lean Texans +17.

Appreciate your Time and effort Claw, good Work m'y friendo

Yesterday......................6-1

leans 4-1

game --- 1-0 ATS, won 3 units

1st half --- 1-0 ATS won 1 unit

Falcons line skyrocketed up before game time to 6.5.

What I have been seeing last number of years is as long as we have a 6 pt diff anytime with the line, not just the closing line  seems to work just as well, the reason I use closing line is coz researching out other years before I had these PR's I can only know the closing line, not possible to know where the line could have moved so to be consistent and compare apples to apples we need to use closing line for all games.

Will likey make changes on this going forward.

Texans covering the +17 most of the game , son of a gun I was hoping for sure Texans cover with the Pats in regression territory, yea they did have a regression, they did not play well, but they still did cover which is not good for Pats in coming weeks. 

Pats played no where-near as good as the final score reflects, they should of won by 4.32 and 8.98 points according to both PR which makes them a fade on the overvalued teams method.

Well, 2 of our 8.5 favs won and both covered as well. 

Will lean Boys and Boys 1st half.

Boys out-played Packers in nearly every key indicator, yep, nearly   everyone except TO's which was even.

Dak had a better QBPR, better ave/pass att., Boys rolled Packers rushing yards a key indicator in PR II and should of won the game according to both PR's , by 9.39 pts and by 3.9 yards.

The rookie did pretty damn good, out-playing Rodgers 

Packers far more lucky then good in that game and that is the beauty of the method to find such situations.

Packers do not fit the mold of past surprise teams coming out of the wild card round, they do not have the common denominators that past teams did have.

Another Falcon beat-down is coming....................................

This bodes very well for Steelers next week and especially since the Pats were not as good as the final score suggest and on top of that Pats are deep in regression mode, Steelers are the play next week.

Waitout the line, get all the points we can. Line at +6 if it drops try and grab +6 if it rises wait it out for +7.

MY LINES................................................

Pats -10.45 over Steelers

Falcons -11.46 over Packers

we have a play with a 6 pt diff to the line

Falcons likely cover my line .