NFL PLAYOFFS ........................2025/2026

@theclaw

 TC.... how is your "points remaining" factor looking here in the SB matchup??  

Thx 

Divisional round .............

0-3, lost 3.35 units

Brutal, just brutal.................

Still can't believe I lost all 3 of those plays.

Stroud was pathetic. The pick 6 he threw it up for grabs to avoid a sack. Cannot make that decision, take the sack and move on.

28 QBPR for Stroud.

The Bears did exactly what I talked about they needed to do to win. They out-played the Rams in about everything but TO's which was their specialty and why they were winning .

So those TO's finally caught up with them after finally out-playing a quality opp.

Bills game was truly heart-break8ng for sure.

My close wins method lost again and had the 2cd year with a very poor result.

It did bounce back with Pats over Denver but still finishes with a terrible record.

Next year it should bounce back or may have to put it to rest.

Looks like people are starting to catch on to close wins as Colin Cowherd actually mentioned it.

My conference title game method using my 3 PR's, PR I, PR II, PLAYOFF ONLY PR I did win with a play on Seahawks.

As neither of those PR's goes 0-2 very often so with all 3 on Seahawks but not on the same team in AFC title game, one PR was going to lose in AFC so that meant Seahawks needed to win and they did .

I did play 2 units on Seahawks in the king of covers contest, the only pick I made. I did think Pats would win SU mostly because the QB situation for Denver.

I had Pats the favorite in 2 of the 3 PR's with Nix playing.

Will get into it coming up.................

Super Bowl 60 ............

PR I.......

Seahawks - .73 over Pats

Def-adjustef PR I............ Seahawks recieve 3.65 additional pts

Seahawks -4.69 over Pats

Def-adjusted works the best in SB.

25-10 SU when my line over 2 pt favorite

2 pt fav or less 3-7 SU

All leans 6-4 ATS since 2015

Teams receiving 2.9 def-adjusted pts or more are..........7-2 ATS.

teams under 2.9 pts are 5-10 ATS

This info favors Seattle SU and def-adjusted favors Seattle  ATS.

But 3 of those 4 ATS losses since 2015 were fading Mahomes. It is difficult to build a PR to take into account what Brady and Mahomes brings to the game.

Or is it ?

I bring this up for new info I have which does a much better job. Actually 2-1 ATS in the 4 KC SB'S, while PR I def-adjusted is 1-3 ATS.

Playoff Only PR I .................

Seahawks 12.48

Pats 12.41

Seahawks -.07 over Pats

Favorite 10-5 SU winner since 2010

6 pt difference to closing line 11-4 ATS 

Both regular season PR I def-adjusted and playoff only on the same team 10-4-1 ATS

Lean on the Pats ATS.

Keep this in mind when I posted new info.

Pts Per Plays Margin .................

Here is my new info ........

End of regular season ..... better team 9-8 ATS

Seahawks .202 ..........by .062

Pats .140

Past 3 games prior to SB...... 10-6 SU & 10-6 ATS

Seahawks .237.............093

Pats .144

Regular season & playoffs............ 11-6 SU & 10-7 ATS

Seahawks .216

Pats .142

improvements going through the playoffs ...

How much each team improved from end of regular season up to the SB

Seahawks by .014 .............by .012

Pats .002 

Exactly how big is a .014 improvement ?

Now we have to keep in mind that there are 17 games in regular season Seattle played just 2 playoff games so 2 games will influence 17 games very little.

Of the 17 seasons I looked at back to 2004 but not including surprise teams from the WC round there have been 34 teams make the SB.

Of the 34 teams  Seattle's improvement  ranks 7th best.

But 3 other teams improved by .015 so only 3 teams improved significantly  more then Seahawks did.

Of the teams to improve by .011 or better only 9 teams did that and they are 7-2 ATS.

If the same team has the better rating going into the SB and improved the most, Seattle has both.

9-5 ATS

Seattle .202 is the best rating in those 17 years.

Seattle total amount being superior to the Pats in each area ranks right at the top better then 2013 Seahawks ratings over Denver.

That Seahawks team had the best rating prior to this Seahaeks team.

Clear dominance is what the info is suggesting .

Now back to the PR I Playoff Only PR which has a lean on Pats.

When the Playoff Only and the Playoff improvement  are on the same team is 7-2 ATS. When on different team then is about 50% either side with improvement  1 game ahead..

When pts per plays method and PR I def-adjusted are on the same side 8-4 ATS.

Although there is only a very small lean on Seahawks PR I, to small to really count in my book but everything else points Seattle.

If line drops to 4 that be a lean Seahawks if it goes to 5 then very small lean Pats but likely  to small.

Play has to be on Seattle or no play.

Pts per plays has Seattle significantly  better in each area, when all 4 have same team 6-3 ATS.

Now using my EXPECTED WIN MARGIN for all playoff  teams where each team gets so many pts to win by, based on the 1 stat that has the highest correlation to pt margin in the playoffs.

Seahawks have 35 pts left  in this SB.

Remember  this does not tell us who will win, we need to find that with other info.

Pats have alot of points as well so this suggest a big win could very well be coming.

Last season we had the same situation with both teams having alot of pts left. I did call for a 17 pt win by the Eagles although they won by 18 that was a bit deceiving as the Eagles dominated more more then that 18 pt win leading by what 31 -0 at one pt.

The Eagles did have the Pts to justify that big lead.

There is no info I have says Pats win SU. 

It's all Seahawks on SB Sunday............

I doubt you'll  be sweating this game out on the final drive or toward the end of the game, Seahawks should win by double digits. 

Good luck with SEA.

Hate to see u leaning towards Seahawks

I say Hawks brother. let's do this...

GL SB 

We are opposites claw and I know you know that. Good luck on your Seattle play just the same. Much respect

May the best team win .................

I forgot to add, of the teams improving in the playoffs by .011 or better are 7-2 ATS.

Teams declined by .011 have gone 1-3 ATS.

So 10-3 ATS combined.

Which does point to the fact you want the team to have improved by a pretty good amount.

Pats did not decline but improved by very little.

The only game that saw 1 team improved by .011 or better and the opp decline by .011 or better was 2023 KC improving while 9ers declined.

And of course KC won when my PR I def- adjusted had 9ers big, by double digit favorite.

But my Playoff Only did have KC along with playoff improvements.

That is 1 game I was on the 9ers based on a strong PR I def-adjusted that this method had me on KC.

2019 my PR I def-adjusted had me again on 9ers as did my Playoff Only but pts per plays had KC in all 4 areas the better more efficient team and improving by .015 in playoffs.

Which again this method does about the best I have seen rating Mahomes and Brady something I see many good cappers saying they cannot build a PR to accurately measure what they bring to the game.

The largest improvement was last years Eagles by .029. With all 4 areas on Eagles by a huge amount as did my PR I def-adjusted was big on Eagles.

Interesting that the 3rd largest playoff improvement was no other then 2017 Eagles with Nick Foles at the helm by .018.

And many doubting him in SB just like many still doubting Darnold who has 7th largest improvement of 34 teams.

I may try to build a PR using pts per plays margin as the main stat carrying the most weight or maybe add the meterics into PR I.

Or maybe keep it has it is since it does measure everything a team does. Anything I would add in would be counting it twice.

Let's talk TO'S ........................

Yea we know Seattle has the most TO's this season and -3 in TO differential.

I saw someone post when Pats win the TO battle they win 60% of games while Seattle wins 77%.

First, 60% seems low to me for a top team.

Did you know when Seattle losses the TO battle they win 60% of games ?

So if Pats win TO battle do they really have an advantage?

Now here is info I have not seen anyone post here or on you tube.

In Seattle's  past 9 games including playoffs Seattle is 6-1 at winning the TO battle.

All their other losses came in their 1st 10 games of the season . Since that point they have completely turned things around.

So if you think Seattle having the most TO's is how Pats will win the info above disputes that big time.

If Seahawks win TO battle you can turn the lights out on Pats winning this game and not very likely they cover either.

You can't say the same if Pats win TO battle which Seahawks having turned the corner on TO's does not seem likely 

@theclaw

Another thing I am hearing on you tube lots of guys bringing up all the dogs covering recently.

One tout says the SB is the one game you don't want to back the better team, he says follow history and just back the dog.

Well history tells a different story. Using my PR I def-adjusted and my new pts per plays method many of the dogs clearly should have been the favorite.

Both meterics were on the dogs in many of those games.

History tells me you want to back the better team which here is Seahawks not the dog.

I like to watch these guys and find mistakes they make, i do pretty good fading their mistakes.

i beat Steve Fezzick pretty good when i found him making mistakes based on my info. If I had to go head to head with him I likely lose but when I can isolate mistakes I do well.

We'll  see if it works here today.

Using history as he suggested , history tells me the wrong teams were favored 

One final word. I hear many saying everyone on Seattle, I agree it does appear to be that.

But another tout who post fade the public videos and does quite well says the public is on Seattle but not enough to warrant any play nor did he even mention anything about being close enough to have a lean fading Seattle.

He uses different criteria. He doesn't say exactly what it is but he does not use just %  of bets or money.

I trust him over anyone else to properly judge the public. 

And I did see a book report they have alot more money on Seattle but they have alot of money on Pats futures to win SB so they are positioned very well and maybe this is what the books want.

The book said they did a trail raising the line to 5 because they have lots of money to work with so they wanted to see if the sharp accounts would grab Pats but no takers.

This does support what the tout is saying not enough to have a play fading the public.

I did hear from other good cappers on you tube that sharps came in on Seattle early so this tout might be seeing the same thing hence why he has no play or even a lean fading Seattle. I saw it reported somewhere not sure if TV or online but 15 of 15 ESPN analysts did take Seattle which that might be the kiss of death for Seahawks.

However unless they post a score we don't know how many have Seahawks winning but Pats covering. In years past they have posted scores and I have seen this where they have 1 team winning but the other covering and they were wrong about the cover, the team did win but also covered.

Again this info supports not fading the slight public on Seattle.