Yds Per Pts Diffential.............
Both these stats are efficiency stats, tells us who plays better situational football. Both are very important stats.
1. Seahawks 4.3
3. Rams 2.8
4. Pats 2.7
5. Texans 2.6, looky, looky
8. 9ers 1.8
12 Denver .7, mighty no. 1 seed
13. Bear .6 , lucky Bears
15 Bills .5 ,
Bills pretty close to Broncos and that includes Broncos final game VS Chargers who did not play starters
Now look at this. If we throw out the game Chargers did not care to win.
Broncos 18th --- .0
In that game Broncos out-played Chargers a team did not play starters and really did not care to win by 59.7 .
Wow, and after that monster game all this no. 1 seed can do is rank 12th in the league .
You are living a dreamers dream if you believe Broncos win the SB.
This is not a good no. 1 seed.
The Bills have flaws for sure but are better then Denver in key areas like QBPR diffential.......
Bills +22.4
Denver +9.1
The average SB winners is around 27, but most SB Winners are over +15.
Defensive QBPR .........
Denver 78.7
Bills 79.8
Say what ? Isn't Denver supposed to have the far better defense?
Points come out of the passing game, passing wins SB's far more then not.
Last weeks WC round the team won the QBPR went 5-1 SU. Only the lucky Bears could escape with a win after being out-played in QBPR.
Bills for sure have injury concerns, only have 3 receivers and Allen is be banged up.
If Allen can play is Superman role after being bang-up and with limited no. of recievers the way he normally does I think you have to back Bills or pass
But whether he can is a big if ..................
Lean Bills +1.5 at this time
i took Denver few days ago at pickem,better defense,rest and HFA.I think Denver's run game will be the winning factor.I use to do all them # too years ago which is lot's of work but theses are human's and # can't predict any outcome especially involving human's. I now am just thowing a hundred or so looking at the simple things and having fun (44-22) in NFL this season GL on your picks
True, there are many variables in a game.
Stats can tell us who is the better team and research can tell us the spots the better team consistently wins or at least wins ATS.
A good example is weak statistical teams rarely win SB's. Nothing can ever be 100% as there will always be exceptions.
Highly likely the SB winner is Seahawks, Rams or Pats with possibility that 2 of those could very well make the SB but almost certainly at least 1 will.
Understand nothing in life is 100% I lean Broncos you lean Bills,I jumped on Denver at pickem,if you have Bills at + 1.5 maybe we can both win lol
I lived in Vegas back in the early 80's and during them time I sometimes was putting thousands on a game and hanging around sharps,wise guys or whatever you want to call em.I now keep it very simple and just haivng fun GL to both of us
One score close wins ......................
Broncos 11-2 =+9
Bills 5-3 = +2 ...................by 7
The play has to be on the Bills. This has the making of a very strong play on the Bills.
No doubt Bills have flaws and some injuries which is concerning but I have to take the Bills here.
This method is 0-2 ATS so far, it has finished with a winn8ng record a high % of years in playoffs.
It did have it's worse year last year so I think it should bounce back big here.
And on top of this we have a dog whom jump to a favorite which has a long term very good ATS record backing the favorite who jump to the dog which is the Bills.
I don't think it matters who's backing the Broncos.
I beat the sharps all the time. They do beat me as well but my point is I am not afraid to fade the sharps when my info supports it.
We'll see were the chips fall....................
I'll wait out the line see if I get +2 .
Absolutely. They both list SOS with their power ratings.
One thing I like about Massey is that he lists teams' OFF and DEF power ratings as well as the overall ratings.
Good luck claw I like the pats today as well and also I've been meaning to ask you.
What was the verdict that DJ provided to you if any about your ties in the NFL contest that was the weekly pick four contest provided by covers this year?
I ended up with 36 total as we and so dit you but your ties should of been counted for at least half a point.
Sat --- 0-1, lost 1.1 units
Brutal loss by Bills, they completely out-played Bronco's every-which way.
Out-gain them by 100 yards, higher ave per play 5.8-5.1= .7
Higher ave per pass but not by much , 6.3- 6.1 when adding in sacks.
Denver did win sacks and penalties.
Bills out-rushed them 183-107.
But Allen reverted back to his TO Machine days.
That fumble right before half was aggravating as all get-out as Allen likes to hold the ball like a loaf of bread which is very easy to knock it free.
When approach8ng a defensive player he then tucks it away but the defender came up behind him, Allen never saw him coming.
But then Bills linemen fell perfectly on the ball but somehow could not recover it. Cost the Bills 3 pts.
Think about this, of the 5 fumbles Denver recovered 4, the only one Bills recovered was called back for Bills defensive linemen being offsides.
So Broncos recovered 4 of 4 fumbles when Bills players had the first shot at a very good possible recovery and could not do it.
That is some fumble recovery luck and pretty much what Denver was going to need to win this game.
Had those fumbles evened out very likely Bills would have controlled this game. Denver defense did not look all that great except the TO's but that was some degree of luck to me.
PR I did have Denver winning by 1.68
PR II had Denver by 2.52
With that 5 to 1 TO advantage.
They needed everyone of those TO's to win a close game.
Pending plays Sunday.............
Texans +4 over Pats
Rams -3.5 over Bears
Interesting that the dogs won ATS 4 straight to open playoffs.
But now favorites bounced-back to win 4 straight.
Highly doubtful both favorites win ATS today and make it 6 straight ATS wins.
I think Texans have the best shot to break that favorites run.
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