After betting baseball for 20 straight years and never missing a season, I’m convinced I’ve developed battered bettor syndrome

Anytime something looks too good to be true, or the value looks obvious, my first instinct is to go the other way. Unlike Pavlov, I’m trained to flinch.

This MLB season has not been pretty  I’m down 13.5 units, real money units…no bueno

Whenever I’m unsure ,I go the other way r just stay away ????

Naturally, today I’m going right back to the ugliest game on the board. If the Reds are going to win any game, I think this is their best shot.

Tell me why I’m right

Don’t take Cincy again man….

I warned you about the Braves bats last time.   

Perez’s road split shows up today
His season ERA looks good, but he has been much better at home than on the road. If Cincinnati’s right-handed bats get to him early, the Braves F5 angle gets uncomfortable fast

Reds hit lefties well enough to matter.
This lineup is not dead against left-handed pitching. Elly, McLain, Steer, Stewart, Stephenson, and Hayes give them enough right-handed/switch looks to pressure Perez

Braves are on the cruise control.imo

It’s possible carbon copy of each other in this regard - my favorites and over and I got burned so bad that now I only look to underdog and sometimes I get carried away with the other and I drink too much 

@luckyhands

 Doing voice to text at the casino while drinking 

April 15, 2004 — Red Sox lost 12-7 vs Orioles at Fenway
Pedro started, went 5 innings, allowed 8 hits, 7 earned runs, 2 HR, 4 walks…

I lost my rent money on this gem 

MLB [958] CIN REDS +110

MLB [1958] 1H CIN REDS +110

It just doesnt work anymore. Those type of plays used to be easy winners and i mean it.

Now when i look at a line and it doesnt make sense, just like you i play the other side and they get buried.

The only answer i can come up with, is maybe todays odds makers arent as good as the old time odds makers. Old time odds makers would take stances on games and thats why they would hang lines that didnt make sense. Maybe todays odds makers arent doing that and instead are giving us gifts on those obvious plays, but we are too programed not to bet those gifts

When my dad was running book in the 60s, the sportsbook hold was usually around 6–8%. Last year, I believe the Review-Journal had the Las Vegas hold at around 7.1%.

So honestly, not much has changed.

Sharps can still make money. Squares still dump money. The books still grind out their hold on massive handle. Nobody is giving away free money.

Those are my thoughts.

Meanwhile, my wife is in the backyard working in the garden and looks happy as hell. Maybe I should stop overthinking betting markets and start researching botany.

This makes me want to bet the Braves heavy.

@richamp

The Atlanta line is absolutely plummeting. I could get my ass handed to me here, but I know one thing…I won’t be alone.

HOTLANTA $WEEP

@cd329

 Totally agree

lmfaoooooooooooooooooooooo i have said the same thing for my 46 years betting when i see other people happy as hell while doing other hobbies

already beat you to the punch, played cincy already.

I thought and was hoping for after 20 years you got a system... anyways glad you do bet for real, because I think a lot of the daily posters just posting amounts for fun  and I not even talking the weirdos with high amounts, just in general