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#26
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:
Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams: Quote Originally Posted by theclaw: Close Wins .......... 0-1 ATS Bears 7-4 = 4 Packers 4-5 = (-1) Packers by 5 Play is on Packers. Packers -1.5 over Bears ---- 1.1 units Here is a close-wins query that changes with one additional parameter: PO = 1 and tS(0 < margin < 7.5, N = 15) > 6.5 ATS: 25-42-1 (-2.5,37.3%) In the playoffs, teams that won at least 7 of their last 15 games by 1-7 points cover just 37.3% of those games. That is a nice winning % as a fade, but I usually prefer queries with a minimum ATS edge of 3 points. PO = 1 and tS(0 < margin < 7.5, N = 15) > 6.5 and HD ATS: 4-2 (9.8,66.7%) Very nice average ATS margin for those Home Dogs, but that is just one game from being 50/50. That is a small sample size that provides no reliability. Even if I had run this query before today's games I would have passed. Both Home Dogs covered, so now this query is 6-2 ATS. It's something to monitor. Let's get rid of those pesky Home Dogs: PO = 1 and tS(0 < margin < 7.5, N = 15) > 6.5 and not HD ATS: 21-40-1 (-3.6,34.4%) Now THAT is a query worth a wager. I saved this query myself Queries are never locks and they are subject to regression, so exercise restraint. Good luck in the future. Very nice work dog................... Ill have to look at how fading home dogs has done under my method. Home dogs have historically done well in the playoffs so it does make sense. Better to fade teams not home dogs. No other plays this week under my method. Not sure under your method. I may have to look into your method for the future.
Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams: Quote Originally Posted by theclaw: Close Wins .......... 0-1 ATS Bears 7-4 = 4 Packers 4-5 = (-1) Packers by 5 Play is on Packers. Packers -1.5 over Bears ---- 1.1 units Here is a close-wins query that changes with one additional parameter: PO = 1 and tS(0 < margin < 7.5, N = 15) > 6.5 ATS: 25-42-1 (-2.5,37.3%) In the playoffs, teams that won at least 7 of their last 15 games by 1-7 points cover just 37.3% of those games. That is a nice winning % as a fade, but I usually prefer queries with a minimum ATS edge of 3 points. PO = 1 and tS(0 < margin < 7.5, N = 15) > 6.5 and HD ATS: 4-2 (9.8,66.7%) Very nice average ATS margin for those Home Dogs, but that is just one game from being 50/50. That is a small sample size that provides no reliability. Even if I had run this query before today's games I would have passed. Both Home Dogs covered, so now this query is 6-2 ATS. It's something to monitor. Let's get rid of those pesky Home Dogs: PO = 1 and tS(0 < margin < 7.5, N = 15) > 6.5 and not HD ATS: 21-40-1 (-3.6,34.4%) Now THAT is a query worth a wager. I saved this query myself Queries are never locks and they are subject to regression, so exercise restraint. Good luck in the future. Very nice work dog................... Ill have to look at how fading home dogs has done under my method. Home dogs have historically done well in the playoffs so it does make sense. Better to fade teams not home dogs. No other plays this week under my method. Not sure under your method. I may have to look into your method for the future.
I like LAC and PIT.
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