NFL PLAYOFFS ........................2025/2026

Power Ratings I ...............

This PR is a pass heavy PR.

1. Seahawks 9.84

2. Rams 9 46

3. Pats 9.13

4. Texans 8.78

5. Bills 8.59

6. Eagles 7.01

7. Jags 6.54

8. Chargers 6.13

9. Broncos  4.79

10. Packers 4.31

11. Bears 1.72

12. Pitt 1.07

13. 9ers .33

14. Panthers (-2.01)

We can see 9ers ranked to low but had many injuries to overcome. They are better but how much ?

Pats might be to high having the easiest SOS in the past 26 years.

And Top top teams are pretty weak. No team even close to a 12 rating which would be a strong no. 1 team.

The main reason is QB PASSER RATING Differential of the average  SB winners is around 27.

No team is very close to that . Eagles are the best.

23.1

Bills 2cd, surprise, surprise people 22.4

Rams 22.2

Seahawks 21.2

Pats 20.4

Eagles are not well balanced though. They been outgained in total yds, not the things SB winners do.

Jags for comparison are 12.5

Denver 9.1

Bears (-1.3)

Steelers 2.5

Texans 17.5

Do you know QBPR has the highest correlation to winning and the highest prediction rate as well.

However, I have noticed that QBPR has not been the same success as in the past.

This is likely why we see teams with good records that are not very good in the indicator.

However, will the power of QBPR return now that we are in the playoffs and all the marbles are on the table ?

That is the question you have to answer.

Was the regular season just an anomaly ?

Damned if I know but we could find out the answer coming soon.

Or will this be an exception if a year ?

My Lines .......................

Rams -8.47 over Panthers

Bears -.41 over Packers

Pats -6 over Chargers

Jags -.95 over Bills

Eagles -9.68 over 9ers

Texans -3.77 over Steelers 

All my lines are pretty close to the actual lines.

Pats with the easiest SOS in past 26 years is likely not a 6 pt fav.

And 9ers with injuries that had will be better then their ratings.

So that put those 2 lines pretty close to actual lines.

No plays this week using my lines

Great stuff as usual Claw .. surprised to see Jags down to 7. They are a very hot team right now. I think they will beat Buffalo tomorrow. They are a more complete team 

Here is a list of my PR I  teams that made the SB since 2015.

We will throwout both Brady and Mahomes as these 2 QB's are the exception.  You can't build a PR that accurately judges what they bring to the field.

Of the 20 teams to make the SB 9 times it was either Brady or Mahomes so that leaves  us with 11 teams.

7 of those 11 teams ranked 10 or higher.

2 of those 4 teams under 10 played in 2021 covid year with players opting out if they wanted. And I believe no fans in the seats

2020 the 1st covid year was Bucs/KC SB with Brady and Mahomes.

Only 2 of 9 teams were rated low in a normal year.

2018 Rams 5.09 and 2015 Broncos 3.81 but even those Broncos were tuff to judge as PManning was a TO machine and replaced by Brock O who actually played better then Manning.

But the Broncos had an all time great defense.

We could even make a case that team is a more rare exception. 

So if you think a lower ranked team in PR I will make the SB the odds are against it.

Denver under 5 ? Interesting 

Pts Per Plays Margin ................

1. Seahawks .202

2. Rams .154

3. Pats .140

4. Jags .109

5. Colts .088

6. Eagles .074

Far majority of SB winners meet a minimum of .090.

This gives us 4 teams potentially could win the SB.

I think it is Seahawks or Rams will win the SB.

Pats coming into playoffs in regression  mode.

Jags, well Lawrence has a below ave QPBR. Don't think he gets it done. And Jags won 8 straight games coming into the playoffs. Not a good indicator.

To hot and not ranked anywhere near a rating that would be indicative of such a hot team. I don't believe in the Jags myself.

But they are above the .090 of past champs so I'd have to at least give them some chance.

GL Claw.

Love your perspectives.

Thanks for sharing 

Close Wins  Mismatches .............

Panthers 7-3 = +4

Rams 4-5 = (-1)

Rams by 5

Play is on the Rams. Panthers got to much good luck while Rams bad luck.

Had the Rams gotten a little luckier they won the division  and be the no. 1 seed. 

Rams -10 (-107) over Panthers --- 1.07 units

This method had it's worst record since 2000 last year, was a terrible year.

I'd expect this method to bounce back big this year.

RAMS were a BF Regression Fade early in the season when they lost to Panthers.

That game is meaningless as any indicator of Panthers ability to hang with the Rams.

The Real Rams will show up and crush this Panthers team today. 

From rolexsports 

A road fav has never in the history of this league have ever covered on the road being favs of 7 pts or higher, never. CAR are 5-2 ATS as dogs @ home this year. They also covered 9/14 games this year as a dog.

Good luck Claw.

@theclaw

 Claw...who you got coming out of the AFC?

@WilliamMunny

 That’s a sample size of two games.

@eshady29

 Great point .. didn’t know that 

There was other trends favored Panthers  as well............

Nobody really not sure. Only like Seahawks or Rams to win SB...................

Close Wins .......... 0-1 ATS

Bears 7-4 = 4

Packers 4-5 = (-1)

Packers by 5

Play is on Packers.

Packers -1.5 over Bears ---- 1.1 units

Here is a close-wins query that changes with one additional parameter:

PO = 1 and tS(0 < margin < 7.5, N = 15) > 6.5

ATS:  25-42-1 (-2.5,37.3%)

In the playoffs, teams that won at least 7 of their last 15 games by 1-7 points cover just 37.3% of those games.  That is a nice winning % as a fade, but I usually prefer queries with a minimum ATS edge of 3 points.

PO = 1 and tS(0 < margin < 7.5, N = 15) > 6.5 and HD

ATS:  4-2 (9.8,66.7%)

Very nice average ATS margin for those Home Dogs, but that is just one game from being 50/50.  That is a small sample size that provides no reliability.  Even if I had run this query before today's games I would have passed.  Both Home Dogs covered, so now this query is 6-2 ATS.  It's something to monitor.

Let's get rid of those pesky Home Dogs:

PO = 1 and tS(0 < margin < 7.5, N = 15) > 6.5 and not HD

ATS:  21-40-1 (-3.6,34.4%)   Now THAT is a query worth a wager.  I saved this query myself

Queries are never locks and they are subject to regression, so exercise restraint.  Good luck in the future.

Thx DBW, impressive use of SDQL.

Very nice work dog...................

Ill have to look at how fading home dogs has done under my method.

Home dogs have historically  done well in the playoffs so it does make sense.

Better to fade teams not home dogs.

No other plays this week under my method. Not sure under your method.

I may have to look into your method for the future.

0-2, lost 2.17 units.

Unreal Packers lost that 21-3 lead. The luckiest team in history keeps doing it. I give the Bears alot of credit for hanging in there but damn do they get the breaks.

With Packers missing that extra point was brutal.

But once again Packers won the QBPR  by a pretty good amount like 104 to like 78 , I forget now.

But according to PR II I am pretty sure by looking at the numbers Packers should of won this game.

The Rams were threatening to blow the game open but Panthers hung in.

Crazy I had a pretty good season going then all of a sudden I can't win a game. It's been brutal down the stretch of regular season and now 1st day of playoffs.

But I'll stay the course with the info I use things should even out I'd  think.

Got to back the Bills. Jags the dog now flips to the favorite is fade material.

Also from what I saw on you tube  public is on Jags.

Bills +1.5 (-105) over Jags --- 1.05 units

My Lines went 2-0 SU and 2-0 ATS with leans.

Not that I would back these in every situation but just tracking what they did.

Jags -.95 over Bills, my line has jags winning but Bills covering.

I doubt that happens. Jags would need to win by 1 pt.

I thought about buying up to 2 just in case it does happen maybe a missed extra pt or 2pt conversion we could end with 2 pt Jags win.

Boy oh boy be brutal  if that happens.