Posted:
#76
Divisional round ....................................
Eagles -7 (-120) over Giants --- 2.4 units
Bills -4 over Bengals --- 1.1 units
get the lines while you can
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NFL PLAYOFFS .............................................................................2022 season
Posted:
#81
Quote Originally Posted by Hoyasaxa:
@theclaw Please look at Bradys numbers in the $$$ quarter, the 4th quarter this season and his career.. look at Dak’s too.. just ask the Chargers if time periods matter. I say this taking the Cowboys in a big Survivor pool and I’m not comfortable
@theclaw Please look at Bradys numbers in the $$$ quarter, the 4th quarter this season and his career.. look at Dak’s too.. just ask the Chargers if time periods matter. I say this taking the Cowboys in a big Survivor pool and I’m not comfortable
........... you won with Cowboys ........
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Posted:
#82
Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw: EXPECTED WIN MARGIN ....................................................... Good ole EWM, one of my favorite methods. I research which stat has the highest correlation with the SB winner's margin of victory through the Playoffs, and it's not pt margin or yards per pt, in fact has nothing to do with pts scored or pts given up. I orginally used this method only for the SB game and had success sometimes calling the margin with 1 pt or 2 or 3 but then found I could use it in others rounds as well, even for teams don't win the SB. It works like this, each team based on the key stat gets so many pts through the playoffs so for WC round teams it be 4 games, once they use up all their pts BINGO we fade them. Well, I can tell you this.................... the Bills have loads of pts to use, they have the potential to win this game big. so do the 9ers, Eagles and even KC. I think we see more blowout wins from these teams coming. Another reason not to be afraid of laying the pts with Bills. Interesting that the Chargers had used all most all their pt margin up for the entire 4 games needed to win SB in the 1st half ALONE, this is not the type of team that should be winning big. I never applied it at halftime before, never thought about it but will certainly look into that now. Interested to see hoe that evolves Claw
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw: EXPECTED WIN MARGIN ....................................................... Good ole EWM, one of my favorite methods. I research which stat has the highest correlation with the SB winner's margin of victory through the Playoffs, and it's not pt margin or yards per pt, in fact has nothing to do with pts scored or pts given up. I orginally used this method only for the SB game and had success sometimes calling the margin with 1 pt or 2 or 3 but then found I could use it in others rounds as well, even for teams don't win the SB. It works like this, each team based on the key stat gets so many pts through the playoffs so for WC round teams it be 4 games, once they use up all their pts BINGO we fade them. Well, I can tell you this.................... the Bills have loads of pts to use, they have the potential to win this game big. so do the 9ers, Eagles and even KC. I think we see more blowout wins from these teams coming. Another reason not to be afraid of laying the pts with Bills. Interesting that the Chargers had used all most all their pt margin up for the entire 4 games needed to win SB in the 1st half ALONE, this is not the type of team that should be winning big. I never applied it at halftime before, never thought about it but will certainly look into that now. Interested to see hoe that evolves Claw
should be interesting ....... Bills hammered the Dolphins and should of won by 16.84 and 17.17 pts according to both PR's..................
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Posted:
#85
How bout those Cowboys !!! .....................................
mon --- 1-0 ATS, won 1 unit
WC Round --- 3-1 ATS, won 2.9 units
Brady & the Bucs looked as washed up as they played all season.
According to both PR's Bills outplayed Dolphins and should of won by 16.85 and 17.17. Good things ahead for the Bills coming off an under-perform on scoring. When good teams do this they cover the next week more then not.
Jags got outplayed by Chargers and should of lost by 11.3 and 13.3 especially losing the TO battle by 5 how could they have any chance to win.
Bengals were outplayed by Ravens should of lost by 2.94 and 9.03, not good, indicating a fade next week. One big mistake by Huntley holding the ball out and giving up a TD cost Ravens the SU win.
9ers outplayed seahawks and should of won by 23.05 and 22.11 about right on the actual 18 pt win.
Giants outplayed the Vikes and should of won by 4.73 and 12.03 pretty close to the actual 7 pt margin
play on the field is more important then the final score, don't look at final score, look at play on the field, when we do this the 2 best teams in WC round were 9ers and Bills.
Did we see all 1st time starting QB's in playoffs cover the spread after years of poor performance and bad ATS records, yep ...........................
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Posted:
#86
MY LINES PR I ............................................. 1-0 ATS w/ 6 pt diff
Eagles -12.57 over Giants
9ers -8.01 over Boys
KC -5.89 over Jags
Bills -4.15 over Bengals
teams under a 6 pt favorite are automatic fades ...........................plays on Bengals, Jags
we have a play on Bills using play on the field but A fade on Bills here, will be back with more info to sort it all out ....................................
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Posted:
#90
Quote Originally Posted by goin4:
Cincy should be passed over home field advantage, begals better running game. The Hamlin factor is buffalo's only chance.
Cincy should be passed over home field advantage, begals better running game. The Hamlin factor is buffalo's only chance.
Bengals not the same team as last year, although they have played well enough this season, lack the efficiency they had last season.
Unless Burrow is the 2cd coming of Brady don't see Bengals advancing back to SB this season.
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Posted:
#91
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:
Brady & the Bucs looked as washed up as they played all season.
Brady & the Bucs looked as washed up as they played all season.
Exactly! But the vast majority on this site insisted that what happened during the regular season didn't matter, because it's Tom Brady and he's some God of football who can just anoint his team to the promised land.
A shitty team in the regular season is almost always going to be shitty in the playoffs... it's not rocket science!
The Dude imbibes
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Posted:
#92
It appears early in the week that because many have overrated Brady and the Bucs, therefore they now are overrating Boys big easy win over those Bucs.
Bucs we're not a good team and Boys had incredible extra motivation to whip them having lost to Brady everytime and with Boys recent poor playoff performance.
Boys are a very solid team but not in the class of 9ers or Eagles.
I can't see Boys beating both 9ers and Eagles back to back on the road
They could beat either team but I don't see it back to back on road.
I'm surprised to see such a low line on the 9ers game.
I'll likely pass as I'm still worried about 9ers being hottest team coming into playoffs, as I've said, with 2 seed VS 7 we don't have a lot of history .
Looking back I suspect the hottest teams were 1 or 2 seeds coming off byes and losing in divisional round to a better team coming off a WC win, not a 7 seed.
This is the game 9ers need to get past in my mind as the hottest team. Playing a good solid team off a WC win in divisional round.
1
Posted:
#93
@theclaw . . . referring to Post #29
Here's a suggestion when writing or copying a large write up and you put it here and it says over 4000 characters not allowed just post half of it then press reply & then copy & paste the left over half after the fact next in your next post . . . . .
I found that out Copying & pasting a large paragraph or write up
Hope that makes sense & helps Claw
What do you call an Eternal Optimist? An accordion player with a beeper!
1
Posted:
#94
Quote Originally Posted by Macwestie1:
@theclaw . . . referring to Post #29 Here's a suggestion when writing or copying a large write up and you put it here and it says over 4000 characters not allowed just post half of it then press reply & then copy & paste the left over half after the fact next in your next post . . . . . I found that out Copying & pasting a large paragraph or write up Hope that makes sense & helps Claw
@theclaw . . . referring to Post #29 Here's a suggestion when writing or copying a large write up and you put it here and it says over 4000 characters not allowed just post half of it then press reply & then copy & paste the left over half after the fact next in your next post . . . . . I found that out Copying & pasting a large paragraph or write up Hope that makes sense & helps Claw
Thanks for the help, not sure I'll know how to do that, I never used copy and paste before ............. .......... I'll give it a try
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Posted:
#97
Quote Originally Posted by Duderonomy:
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw: Brady & the Bucs looked as washed up as they played all season. Exactly! But the vast majority on this site insisted that what happened during the regular season didn't matter, because it's Tom Brady and he's some God of football who can just anoint his team to the promised land. A shitty team in the regular season is almost always going to be shitty in the playoffs... it's not rocket science!
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw: Brady & the Bucs looked as washed up as they played all season. Exactly! But the vast majority on this site insisted that what happened during the regular season didn't matter, because it's Tom Brady and he's some God of football who can just anoint his team to the promised land. A shitty team in the regular season is almost always going to be shitty in the playoffs... it's not rocket science!
....... past their prime former great players bring alot of hope but few titles.
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Posted:
#99
Quote Originally Posted by WilliamMunny:
Claw I really think the giants are a live dog not knowing how bad Hurts shoulder is. Add in a division opponent.
Claw I really think the giants are a live dog not knowing how bad Hurts shoulder is. Add in a division opponent.
I agree injuries are always a concern, we just don't know. But I've seen this many times where the injuried player plays very, very well but I've also seen them play poorly as though they are still injuried.
But I think people might be overreacting to Giants win over Vikes, that team was not good. I think Eagles roll in this game.
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