NFL PLAYOFFS .............................................................................2022 season

Whoever posted that is wrong. When Dallas and Tampa played in week 1 this season it was in primetime (Sunday Night). Doesn't anyone remember that? Tampa's defense put a whoopin on the Boys. And Brady won 19-3 as a 2.5 pt favorite. 

@kcblitzkrieg

 Okay now do playoffs

2 seeds VS 7's now go to 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS with 3 of 4 wins by 16 pts or more the other by 11.

Let's see if Bills can join the group tomorrow.

Seahawks had everything going well untill Geno fumbles, had they gotten a TD there maybe they could of hung in a bit more.

But once 9ers scored a TD off the fumble to go up 2 TD's it seemed Seahawks might have panic a little making mistake after mistake with penalties and an INT.

9ers will rate pretty strong for that game.

I was hoping game would of been closer to set up next week.

Purdy with a 131 QBPR, did you see that stat, Purdy has 2cd best QBPR in history after 5 games, a tad better then Mahomes with Kurt Warner and the greatest show  on turf being the best after 5 games.

some people are crazy nerdy when it comes to sports ..... thanks for the being that nerd for us 

a wealth of info in this thread every week 

@theclaw

first thanks for your time and effort to post. Are you on bills spread tomorrow or only on them to win the AFC?

om both

(Light bulb)

I wanna bet this game badly because its an intriguing matchup to me, but we dont make $ making plays just to have action so ill be watching and rooting for brady (i hate the cowboys) and im not a fan of mike mac if it comes down to key situational football where 1 play call or even clock management could decide it.... if this game was on turf id be on the cowboys. 

yessir 

thanks for the response - todays game 1U or 2U?

I second that. This is a lot of information and it's really good stuff.   

thank you ..................................

sat --- 1-0 ATS, won 2 units

pending plays for sunday .............................

Bills -13 (-120) over Dolphins --- 1.2 units

Giants +3 over Vikes --- 1.1 units

EXPECTED WIN MARGIN .......................................................

Good ole EWM, one of my favorite methods. I research which stat has the highest correlation with the SB winner's margin of victory through the Playoffs, and it's not pt margin or yards per pt, in fact has nothing to do with pts scored or pts given up.

I orginally used this method only for the SB game and had success sometimes calling the margin with 1 pt or 2 or 3 but then found I could use it in others rounds as well, even for teams don't win the SB.

It works like this, each team based on the key stat gets so many pts through the playoffs so for WC round teams it be 4 games, once they use up all their pts BINGO we fade them.

Well, I can tell you this.................... the Bills have loads of pts to use, they have the potential to win this game big. so do the 9ers, Eagles and even KC. I think we see more blowout wins from these teams coming.

Another reason not to be afraid of laying the pts with Bills.

Interesting that the Chargers had used all most all their pt margin up for the entire 4 games needed to win SB in the 1st half ALONE, this is not the type of team that should be winning big. I never applied it at halftime before, never thought about it but will certainly look into that now.

@slamspurs

 That was me, my bad as I knew that.  Must have mixed that up with my stats on them as a DOG this year when I was putting those both together at same time, no excuse.....Brady and Buccs are 0-3 ats as DOGs this year.  2-15 ATS not 1-15 ATS on other stat line 

@theclaw

 Please look at Bradys numbers in the $$$ quarter, the 4th quarter this season and his career.. look at Dak’s too.. just ask the Chargers if time periods matter. I say this taking the Cowboys in a big Survivor pool and I’m not comfortable 

Interested to see hoe that evolves Claw 

Bol

Great info from all.

MY LINES PR I ................................................. 3-2 ATS in all leans ........... 1-0 ATS with a 6 pt diff

Boys 6.06 over Bucs .... not including final game

Boys -2.75 over Bucs ...... all games

line is about right on actual line if we look at using all games.

Bonus pts .................. 3-2 ATS based on closing line but 4-1 ATS with +3 on Giants ...... 2-0 ATS with a 4.5 diff

bonus pts on a recent 2-6 ATS run with a 4.5 diff bounces back, looking to make it 3-0 tonight.

Boys -7.58 over Bucs ......... all games

Boys -9.44 over Bucs ....... not including final game

if line goes to 3 we still have a play on Boys in either line, it'd need to go to 3.5  to have a lean on Bucs with all games line. Not very likely.

Looking back at Dak in the playoffs, he is 1-3 SU, lost to Packers in 2016 season as his 1st playoff start and 1st season as a starter.

 He beat Seahawks with R. Wilson then lost to SB team in Rams, then last season lost to 9ers, not exactly like he lost to some cupcake teams there.

sun --- 1-1 ATS, lost .1 units

Bills look ready to blow Dolphins out, problem was as much as they completely dominated the game early the lead they built wasn't what it should have been considering the level of domination. They should have been up 27 or 28 to 3, but minimum 24-3 not 17-3, when a team has a strong moment like Bills did they need to build a huge lead then the opp starts pressing and that leads to mistakes. 

Dolphins did just enough to keep the game somewhat close enough to stay in the game, once Dolphins cut the lead to 17-9 and got within 1 score I kind of knew Bills were in trouble of not only covering but maybe even winning. Skylar seemed from watching the game he played pretty well for him but looking at the QBPR he was dreadful and Allen outplayed him by quite a bit.

He had like a 44.5 QBPR, dreadfully bad. When we look at total yards, ave per play Bills crushed the Dolphins.

93.1 to 44.7 QBPR margin

423 to 231 yards margin

5.9 to 3.3 ave per play

6.9 to 3.9 ave per pass

when we look at offensive performance of Dolphins it was terribly bad but yet they scored 31 pts. Bit of a fluke really. Dolphins shouldn't have been in this game.  It's the one concern I had on the Bills, turnover machine Allen, keep turning it over and Bills won't last long VS the good teams like Bengals or KC.

GL @theclaw

  #72

Pending play ..........................

Boys -2.5 over Bucs --- 1.1 units