NFL PLAYOFFS .............................................................................2022 season

no play ...........

sat --- 2-0 ATS, won 3 units

Eagles back to form, PR I had Eagles winning by 25.57 pts, PR II 20.61. Without That last TD scored by Eagles both PR's would of been very close to final score. At that point I suspect Giants had very little motivation left. I didn't see it as I left to go home after Eagles stop Giants on 4th down.

Giants were a similar team to Vikings, just a better version of them, outgained and outplayed in many key areas. 

Might have gotten a little lucky with Jags with Mahomes injury as Jags just pull-off the cover. But there were 3 makeable plays had the Jags made them this could have turned out way different. The dropped INT that was a catchable ball early in the game in KC territory would have given Jags the lead if I remember correctly  if they got a TD and KC scored a TD on that possession.

The long pass that was not caught at about the 10, although Jags did get a FG on that possession  but would have been set-up nicely for a TD, I suppose we don't know if they would have scored a TD, possible the result could have been the same.

And that fumble by the receiver inside the 5 with what like  under 7 minutes left, it appeared he was reaching the ball out or just not really securing the ball the way he should have been, again a play that could have been made without a fumble, those 3 plays made by Jags and they could be moving on or the very least we would not have been sweating out that late FG .

According to PR I KC won by 14.21 and 14.31 By PR II.  Both PR's had KC winning by larger margin then they did. Had those 3 plays gone Jags way that would have changed the results of both PR's.

With Mahomes hobbling hard to imagine he'll be 100% next week, he'll be better but not 100% and that takes away an incredible weapon he has such an ability to avoid sacks and make plays either passsing or running, he has made so many great runs out of avoiding sacks. Sets up the Bills who could not contain him last year if they can get past Bengals today.

This reminds me of Packers when Rodgers sprained his ankle back in 2015 divisional round then played Seahawks in NFC TITLE Game, was like +9 dog and line went to 9.5 I remember I bought that to +10 as Seahawks were defending SB Champs with many on them because of being defending champs and Rodgers injury to boot.

Mahomes passing was clearly effected on some plays, other times he did well, made some great passes, just wondering how the books handle this with the line on next weeks game. I imagine they'll wait and see a couple of days before coming out with a line.

pending play ...........................

Bills -4 over Bengals --- 2.2 units

PR I play on  the Bengals

Bouns Pts play on Bill if line -5.5 or less

PR II no play.

Bills would be a play based on play on the field in both PR's last week and Bengals a fade based on both PR's last week.

As long as line hold -5.5 or less will stay put with 2 units on Bills, if line at most books goes to 6 or 6.5 likely buying off on Bengals for 1 unit. Right now seeing it kind of mixxed, some -5.5's and sone -6's.

Alot of talk about Bengals off line injuries but I'm not sure about the impact as 1 player coming in was starter last year, another did some playing time and the 3rd was not a starter or play much if any and Might have been a high draft pick who didn't workout.

How much is that worth ? Some say it means alot as guys need to play together and understand the line calls, so maybe it could be worth some pts in my lines, I dont know.  I'll play it safe and buy-out 1 unit if line goes higher.

9ers VS Boys ..........................................

no plays on any method for this game, line would need to drop down to -2.5 or -2 for play on 9ers and go way up for any play on Boys.

Blowout wins .... 9ers +7 with Boys +3 = 4 game difference, that is pretty big diff but not knowing the history I can't make a play. a reason to lean 9ers along with 9ers being no. 1 ranked team in both PR's.

But 9ers off 10 game winning streak coming into playoffs and then playing a 7 seed which 7 seeds are a new thing so not much history there, in divisional round is historically where these hot teams get burnt as they are playing a better opp off a playoff win. So I can't back this 9er team and with Purdy playing the best defense he has seen and best pass rush he has seen, he has faced some cupcake defenses for sure.

I think this will be the game we see what Purdy is really made of. I am really looking forward to this game.

Since no rookie has won the SB or taken a team to SB I think, but there is always a 1st time, the rookie just needs the right situation and maybe this is it, I can't imagine a rookie being in a better situation then Purdy is in, if he can't do it here wow, who could ? Especially seeing how he has played to this point.

Once upon a time no team won SB in their home stadium, but then bingo happened back-to-back years with Brady and Bucs and Rams. So never say never.

pass on this game for sure.

Do you like Buffalo vs KC considering Mahomes could be limited? 

I think Marino took Dolphins to SB his rookie year... IF memory serves lol

GL today all

His 2cd year, drafted in 83 went to SB on 84 Dolphin team, SB in 85. Rookie year posted a 96 QBPR, in 84 posted a 108 QBPR.

Mahomes injury is the big wildcard for sure. Doesn't seem possible he could be as mobile which is what he does so very well. 

sun --- 0-1 , lost 2.2 units

divisional round --- 2-1, won .8 units

wc round --- 3-1, won 2.9 units

Bills are such a big disappoint, 0-2 ATS and played poorly in both games. There sure is alot of magic in that Bengals team with Burrow, incredible what they have done.

Purdy continues to not make the big mistake and play well enough to win. I thought he threw some nice balls into fairly tight coverage at times.  He seems to be very good scrambling out of the rush and presence of mind to get rid of the ball if needed. They have so many weapons he'll get it to someone can make a play.

Power Rating I swept the board going 4-0 ATS in all leans after a spectacular WC round going 5-1 ATS in all leans losing only with Bills -14.93 over Dolphins w/Skylar. 

Generally after such great runs it may regress some so not sure we can count on it to continue at such a high rate.

True BUT it was not supposed to be set up that way....all due to COVID.  2021 Super Bowl was set to play in the Rams brand new LA stadium.  Due to COVID and the fact that California would not allow actual people into the stadiums for the games it was moved to Tampa.  If that had not had happened then the Buccs would've played the Chiefs in LA.

Then the following year the game flipped back to LA because the NFL owed them that Super Bowl hosting opp from 2021.  The Rams would've never played that SB at home if it had not been for the prior year moving.  

POWER RATING I .......................................... 1-0 ATS w/6 pt diff to closing line.

Eagles -1.71 over 9ers

KC -2.58 over Bengals 

POWER RATING II ................................................

Eagles -2.43 over 9ers

KC -7.07 over Bengals

PLAYOFF ONLY PR I ..........................................

Eagles -11.8 over 9ers 

KC -11.24 over Bengals

BONUS PTS .................................... 4-1 ATS w/4.5 pt diff to closing line

9ers -.14 over Eagles

KC -6.06 over Bengals

CLOSE WINS .................................................. 3-1 ATS w/3 game diff

9ers by 4 over Eagles

Bengals by 2 over KC 

For most of the year I didn't like KC, they seemed to have too weak a defense. But now favored in every PR over Bengals. Looking back at last season KC is a much better team this season.

ave per pass margin last year +.1, this year +1.9, huge improvement while Bengals regressed . Bengals +.3 last year +1.1.

big reason for KC is sack rate, last year 4.1% - 4.8% on defense = .8% 

Geez did it again, post too old to edit, did a big write up on KC's improvements and Bengals regressing off last season.

For some reason I hit something that posted the post above before I was ready.

This season KCs sack rate, Mahomes sacked 3.9 % - defense 8.2% = 4.3% margin, best of any team remaining.

Compare that to last seasons .8%, less then 1% and defense 4.8%, and we see part of the reason ave per pass including sacks is greatly improved far and away better then last season with Tyreek.

Add in KC's total yds margin in 2cd half +21 yds to Bengals -13 when most all SB winners outgain opps by more yards in 2cd half of season.

KC's defense was much improved 2cd half, they gave up 375 yards or more in 5 of 8 games but then in just 1of 9 games 2cd half .

They gave up 307 or less in 4 of the 9 games, almost half their 2cd half games hence why their toal yards margin improved by the most of any team in the 2cd half.

Bengals the opposite, they gave up 344 yards or more 3 times in first 8 games but 6 of last 8 including 6 of final 7 games. Bills game cancelled 2cd half.

KC trending in the right direction, Bengals the wrong direction.

One of Bengals big strengths last season, penalties, +44 for over 300 yds, they are still good but not near as good as last season, +19 for just over 200 yards.

KC +11 so not any big advantage in number of penalties, yards KC (-104) Bengals advantage there.

Line up to Bengals -2.5, don't know if it hits 3 but wouldn't be surprised.based on what I've seen so far with all the Bengals love.

Can't wait to see some you tube videos and who the talking heads are taking, right play in this game is on KC.

@theclaw

Buy back on the 3 will get hammered, won't last long if it hits.....Good to see some metrics backing KC side and BOL as always 

@theclaw

 Do you think the Bengals love is based on the Mahomes injury and would be KC favored if there wasn't an injury?

yea for sure, have to grab it quick. I think pro's already grabbed the +2.5 driving the line down to +1 or +1.5. 

Some because of the injury but I think the public will love Bengals because of recent play between both teams. Bengals 3-0 and Bengals defending AFC Champs, public loves backing proven winners and recent winners, KC's is a proven winner as well but not recent. Public has a severe case of recency bias.

@theclaw

Points per Plays Margin........................................

I like pts per plays better then yards per pts, you don't hear much talk about pts per plays the same way you do yards per pts, maybe there is a reason, they are keeping the good stuff to themselves.

2021 season for every 50 plays ..........................

Bengals 4.7

KC 4.4

Bengals the slightly more efficient team but pretty close

2022 season for every 50 plays ............................

KC 5.05

Bengals 3.15

looky who improved and  by a decent amount and looky who regressed and not by a small amount at all.  KC much better then either team last year and Bengals wow far worse then either team last year.

KC wins SU and not likely to be a 3 pt game either. If Mahomes can play effective, at least pass without much difficulty, if he is really hobbling and cannot set on that ankle then Bengals could win but I think it is more then likely Mahomes at pass effectively and move at least enough to get the job done.

I will likely take action on the game by tonight or  tommorrow morning because the press conference comes out I think tommorrow and they will talk about Mahomes at practice and that could drive some money on KC if he looks good. I imagine the books already know the answer.