NFL PLAYOFFS .............................................................................2022 season

@theclaw

Instead of writing on Covers do it on your computer like your writing a letter then you can copy & paste or edit then apply it here.

If it’s too long of a written paragraph copy & paste half of it then apply it & then copy the rest of your paragraph after & apply it or else it will say you’re over the 4000 characters limit.

Because writing it directly here you could lose your write up in various ways, you don’t want to do that 

Whew hope that made sense and helps 

CLOSE WINS ..................................2-1 ATS in WC 

we have a play with a 3 pt diff

Bengals by 1 over the Bills

9ers by 1 over Boys

Giants by 2 over Eagles

Jags by 6 over KC

one play this week on the Jags

BLOWOUT WINS ....................................................... and BLOWOUT LOSSES

just for the record here is the teams in blowout wins and losses. Close wins being a negative while blowout wins a positive.

This is kind of crazy because we should know the better teams with better records and bigger point margins should have the most blowout wins and fewer blowout losses right ? And when we look at it there is one game doesn't quite fit that. 

Eagles by 7 over Giants

9ers by 4 over Boys

Bills by 4 over Bengals

KC by 1 over Jags

wow, a 13-4 team no. 1 seed VS a 9-8 team and the top seed only has a 1 game advantage in blowout wins and blowout losses ?  and it's the only game is even remotely close to being even. look at the other teams with better records and better pt margins, not really close. Crazy 

KC has 7 close wins (a negative) and 5 blowout wins (a positive), so they have 2 more negatives then positives = (-2)

Jags have 4 close wins and 5 blowout wins, 1 more positive then negative = +1

fits right in with taking Jags in close wins

9ers are the best with 9 blowout wins and only 3 close wins, 6 more positives then negatives = +6

imagine that, a season with more then half your games won in blowout fashion.

Giants have 8 close wins and 1 blowout win = (-7)

for the record ...... Vikes the team they beat had 11 close wins and a paltry 2 blowout wins = (-9) easily the worst of any team. don't be fooled by their record

I don't have any history on blowout wins but will look into it for sure. with that said I can't imagine the method wouldn't be on Eagles with a 7 game edge and the largest of any game. But we can't just assume, it does fit the play I think is the right side anyway.

Here's another interesting piece of info ............................

total yards margin, most ALL SB winners outgain opps by more total yds in the 2cd half of the season, not the 1st half.

here's what I did, Bills outgained opps by 116.75 after 8 games which is not really sustainable, and sure enough they ended the season 78.5 or a (-38.25) diff

9ers a (-5.75) diff

Bengals (-12.98)

Boys +25.67 not including last game or +16.07 all games

Giants +.7, although they did better 2cd half, they were still outgained  by 24.3 yds, not good

Eaglees (-4.4) but in Hurst games +5.75

KC +21.65, KC increased the most but how much you increase really isn't the most important area, just that you do increase.

Jags (-40.7), Jags the worst team

I don't have history of using this in each round but in WC round backing the better teams did do well. backing the team with the largest increase by a set amount lost 1 game that was Jags who did trail 27-0.

This info seems to take us off the Jags. This info has me a little concerned backing Jags as Jags defense got torched the 2cd half and now goes against Mahomes who is the Brady clone with what he has done. and the divisional round has a history of big offensive fireworks.

36.5 points per game scoring average in these 4 Divisional games 

Mahomes scored in divisional round starting with his 1st playoff year, 31,52,22,42. They went 3-1 ATS only losing VS Browns who could of should of won SU.

Boys are the one team I think could win NFC, they out gained opps more in 2cd half, are 3rd or 4th in yards per pts margin so very efficient with yards.

But whether they can beat both 9ers and Eagles on the road back to back weeks, doesn't seem likely.

Games Purdy has started 9ers opps just 1 team was better then league ave in defensive passer rating and that by less then 2 pts being Seahawks.

2 opps we're almost 100 well below ave.

No opp has the sack rate Boys do so Purdy will face best passing defense and best sack team he has seen 

I see some analyst comparing Giants to the 2 other Giant teams surprised everyone going to SB. 

The same surprise team rarely surprises again, yes Giants are the only one so does that mean they'll do it again ?

I say not likely as if people are aware they can wouldn't be a surprise would it ?

Generally a surprise team will be just that, a team nobody expects to win.

I saw this on line Giants are a huge Public play this week one of the biggest this year.

Ok thanks ...........

Always one of my favorite posts of the year, thanks for your hard work and insight

Great info and good luck this weekend. 

@theclaw

 do you have your final card for the day?

Post #103 was the last push I needed to see to get me off of the Jags and onto the Chiefs. Both teams had misleading final scores in the second half of the season, especially the Chiefs in their games against the Rams and the Texans. Today I'm on the Chiefs -9 and the Jags team total under 21.5 -110. Thank you for posting your research, theclaw.

Thank you ......... 

That has me concerned taking the Jags, I really need to look into the past history of this.

But I will back the Jags because close wins produces a winning record every year with very little exception just blindly back the method.

Also blowout wins seems to suggest Jags winning SU but still the 2cd half play of both teams really concerns me.

Jags +10 (-120) over KC --- 1.2 units

Pending plays ........

Eagles -7 over Giants --- 2.2 units

Bills -4 over Bengals --- 2.2 units

Was lucky to grab both Eagles and Bills early still like them now, I made the plays before going over all the info with the idea I was getting the best line and I could buy out at a higher line if the info suggested I should.

But will sit on what I have with both plays at 2.2 units.

Turns out Giants were one of largest public dogs of this year and Bengals a big public dog as well with sharps driving the lines  higher from what I've seen online.

Supposedly some very smart groups are on the Eagles.

Got the Jags at the best line as well although still concerns me their 2cd half performance in total yards .But I'll back close wins and blowout wins as well.

@theclaw

 Have yourself a good weekend, and once again(as usual), thanks for posting. 

@theclaw

 Thanks bro great plays anything for cowboys niners or passing on that game?

Great info! Thanks for sharing.  BOL rest of the weekend.  

Thank you 

No play on Dallas or SF Claw? 

Nice work

killed it 

thank you, same to you  ........

pass on the game ........