NFL PLAYOFFS .............................................................................2022 season

I saw this online, a first time SB QB VS a QB with SB experience the first timer is 18-16 ATS, the experienced QB has a slight edge SU.

Also backing the line movement is. 10-4 ATS, on Eagles.

Also saw a guy breaking down the Eagles off line, he says they are very athletic and Eagles can do things other teams can't. They run some incredible schemes and many times the back is 5,6 or 7 yards down field before first hit.

This might explain the Eagles 31 TD's in regular season with not as good a TD rate passing.

And the Eagles had 4 rushing TDs VS 9ers supposed great defense and they weren't just 1 or 2 yard TD runs. They went virtually untouched into the end zone.

Everything about the make up of this team reminds me of 92 Dallas, great off line, strong run game, QB didn't have a high passing TD rate, very good defense, had plenty of points left in expected win margin, was off a Bator 3 out of 4 and played a team in 3rd SB.

And they crushed them

@IntenseOperator

"Sea-monkeys is the marketing term used for a hybrid breed of brine shrimp sold in packets of dust in aquarium shops."

https://www.livescience.com/33907-sea-monkeys.html

I am allergic to shellfish, so I won't be having any sea-monkeys for dinner tonight.

@theclaw

 Thank you

Do you also see where the money is on the teams ?

kc is about 29 %of handle 32%of bets

eagles 71% of handle & 68% of bets

this definitely scares me to me betting eagles

what are your thoughts. 

@Rollinondubz24

I am on PHL and I certainly don't like to be on the same side as the general public, especially when it's this unbalanced.  However, the general public almost always takes the Favorite and Over; this game is SOP.

I am surprised that Joe Public is not backing the nearly-deified Patrick Mahomes in this important game.

That can't be right

It is. The hype around Mahomes injury, the game they barely won with the help of the officials and two dominant win by the Eagles have created a perfect storm to fleece the public. 

@begginerboy

 What site?

@begginerboy

 Yes what site are you referring to boss.  Scores and Odds is 41/59. Money and tickets

@begginerboy

 I kind of feel like the hype has been equal to the hype surrounding the "Eagles haven't played anybody" refrain. Mahomes might be fine tomorrow, but we all watched him hopping around before and during the hype.

Let's have a look at the 4 areas of the QBPR method plus sack %.

INT %

Eagles .... Hurts 1.3 5 - defense 3.1% = 1.8%

KC .........Mahomes 1.9% - 1.8% = (-.1)

TD % 

Eagles 4.8 -4 = .8%

KC      6.3 - 5.3 = 1%

Completion %

Eagles 66.5 - 62.9 = 2.6%

KC 67.1 - 65.9 = 1.2%

Ave per Pass Att

Eagles 8-6.4 = 1.6

KC .... 8.1 - 6.7 = 1.4

Sack %

KC ......3.9 - 8.2 = 4.3%

Eagles 7.6 - 11.2 = 3.6%

Eagles better in 4 of 5 areas.

But let's look at off VS def ........................

better off team ........

INT % is 3-6 SU

TD% is 5-5 SU

compl % is 3-6 SU

ave per pass is 1-9 SU

sack % 9-1 SU

KC has the better off in 4 of the 5 areas, but only being better in sacks produce a winning record , 

Eagles better in INT%

Better def team .........

INT% is 7-3 SU

TD% is 7-3%

Compl% is 7-2 SU

AvE per Pass Att  is 5-3 SU

Sack% is 6-4 SU

better def produces winning records in every area and the Eagles are better on def in every single area

Defense wins Championships, we hear this all the time and there it is laid out for you to see, do you want to be on the better off or better def team ?

When we look at the QBPR areas, look where KC has the only advantage, sack rate, Mahomes sack far less often then Hurst so if you think KC wins then very likely KC needs to win this battle, the one area they do have an advantage and the better off does very well in SB's.

So you could use this info to play some props on Eagles defensive sacks going UNDER and/or Mahomes being sacked going UNDER, or any other props being supported by this info.

The one area Eagles have their biggest advantage is INT %, they are better in both off and def and by 1.9 overall, the largest of any area so if you think Eagles win then back Mahomes INT's to go OVER and/or Hurts UNDER or whatever props support this info.

But just maybe you can win both these props regardless of who wins the game if the game is close.

That QBPR areas is since 2010 SB till now not including suprise WC Round teams which was 2 such teams, 2011 Gmen and 2012 Ravens

I was thinking about this the past couple of days, Eagles are the only team to be a Bator method fade in the playoffs that I could find. Wow that seems insane to be the only team to score 30 or more while giving uo 10 or less in back-to-back games in the playoffs. But then look at the very unquie situation the Eagles were in, they played a team lost their starting QB, lost their back-up QB then with a 3rd stringer playing well they knock him out early in the game and in comes a 4th stringer who then gets knocked out and the 3rd stringer with torn body parts in his passing arm needs to play QB, that is crazy how the Eagles qualified to be a Bator Fade.

It is very unlikely Eagles would have qualified as a Bator fade if this crazy beyond crazy situation did not occur. It is one of the most unusual, unquie situations we have ever seen so how can you cap that situation into anything ? There is no history of such things.

On one hand we could say the Eagles should not be in any regression at all, the blowout was the result of the craziest QB injuries.  But they did beat a very good NFL team in a blowout and won in back-to-back big blowout wins.

I went back and looked at the teams posted the back-to-back 20 pt wins which included the final game of regular season so only 1 win came in the playoffs that was posted by Dogbite Williams with a 7-14 ATS for teams off those 2 big wins. What I found was my lines and other info was going against most of those teams and I did make plays against those teams , so to me the right team won ATS despite winning by 20 pts 2 games in a row.

There was a few games my info was on the team winning by 20 or more 2 games in a row and my info went 2-1 ATS, small sample for sure but supports my theory to just back the better team which is the Eagles.

With none of my playoff regression methods fading the Eagles and the Eagles clearly the better overall team there is no way I would take KC in this game.

Pending Plays ..............................

Eagles to win SB +450 --- 1 unit to win 4.5 units

I consider hedging but will not and stick with the Eagles as the SB Champs.

Lean .........................

Eagles -1.5 over KC

Eagles -7.5 over KC

Mahomes OVER INT's

[Quote: Originally Posted by begginerboy]Quote Originally Posted by undermysac: Quote Originally Posted by Rollinondubz24: @theclaw  Thank you Do you also see where the money is on the teams ?   kc is about 29 %of handle 32%of bets eagles 71% of handle & 68% of bets this definitely scares me to me betting eagles   what are your thoughts. That can't be right It is. The hype around Mahomes injury, the game they barely won with the help of the officials and two dominant wins by the Eagles have created a perfect storm to fleece the public.[/Quote]

@undermysac

That's in line with what was displayed during a Daily Wager episode.

TC, Erin Dolan of Daily Wager also likes PM to throw an interception (-117 at Caesars Palace).  It was her favorite Super Bowl play.

PM was named the 2022 NFL MVP.  Those players are 0-8 SU and 0-8 ATS the last eight times their teams made it to the Super Bowl.

PM has played in two Super Bowls.  He threw 2 INTs in each game.

That doesn't concern me much, whether the Eagles are in regression is a bigger concern.

The books have lost on the game many times but won overall because of all the props.

So they will win regardless plus there may ght be loads of money on KC futures that is offset by Eagles win

And likely more teasers on KC that a double digit Eagles win kills all those.

What's interesting is Eagles have been spectacular in the 1st half and are the very obvious choice for many to win 1st half but if they are due some regression that could roar it's head in the 1st half and the Eagles trail at halftime.

And that kills many who are backing Eagles 1st half because they are so good in 1st half.

If that happens very possible I could back the Eagles 2cd half.

I'll try to post towards the end of 1st half any plans to back Eagles 2cd half.

@theclaw

 thanks!

Eagles did it again, nice lead at halftime.

Obviously no regression for Eagles at least not to this point.

I'll pass on 2cd half with Eagles leading.

wow KC just dominated the line of scrimmage in the 2nd half