NFL PLAYOFFS .............................................................................2022 season

Nice ............. BOL to us .....

Interesting , I am aware of that I actually did a bigger writeup on the game but went over the allowed 4000 characters allowed.

I erase that part unfortunately.

Bucs have a couple of angles favoring then 

POWER RATING I ..............

My lines ...........

Jags -5.84 over Chargers

Forgot to post this line above.

We have a play with a 6 pt difference. Also 2 other methods have a play on Jags. Get to those soon.

Was hoping to get 3 but everytime it gets close it comes back.

Jags +2.5 (-115) over Charges --- 2.2 units

Giants +3 over Vikes --- 1.1 units

Giants a play with a 3 pt difference in close wins method which rarely has finished with a losing record in playoffs.

Did pretty well last year and the year before 6-2 ATS last year if I remember correctly, will post results over the years soon.

Did they change the overtime rule for playoffs ? Didn't see anyone post about it.

Even if team scores a TD the other team will get the ball for one drive to tie the game.

I had this written down, got it somewhere..................................

QB's in their first career playoff start are.........

8-28 SU

3-11 ATS as a fav

7-15 ATS as a dog

Unders are 27-15

this going into Josh Allen first playoff start. Don't know the records since.

wow, fav have a very poor ATS record. Are you ready Brock ?

CLOSE WINS ....................................................

2005 - 2021 with a 3 pt difference ...... 57-31-1 ATS 64.6% 

in those 17 years has but 1 losing season, that in 2015 going 2-3 ATS, has 2 .500 years in 2014 and 2017.

so in 17 years has 14 years of winning ATS records, 

close wins are not repeatable on average over time.

method went through a period of regression in 2014 - 2017 going 9-8 ATS BUT SINCE has rebounded to a very nice 15-8-1 ATS 64.6% Right on it's long term ave.

Giants by 7 over Vikes
Seahawks by 4over 9ers

Jags by 4 over Chargers

Dolphins by 2 over Bills

Bucs by 1 over Boys

Ravens by 1 over Bengals

3 plays with close wins on ....... Jags, Giants and Seahawks

Are you ready Brock ?

Historically the hottest team coming into playoffs has not been a good play.

That'd be the 9ers winning 10 SU. This looks similar to 2019 Ravens who won 10 or 11 and then lost SU in first playoff game.

The Bills couple years ago then failed to cover VS Colts but did squeak out a 3 pt win were the hottest team then with many riding them.

I was on the Colts that game. Still remember Bills rolling opps coming into playoffs.

I don't think there was a hot team last season

Be careful what you wish for regarding 9ers.

But 2 seeds VS 7's have only been around for 2 years so history doesn't really include them.

2 seeds are 3-1 ATS past 2 years of existence.

3 wins by 11 pts or more, the only ATS loss, yep those  2 seed Bills VS 7 seed  Colts.

Are you ready Brock ?

Claw- good luck- I actually just saw this morning they did change the rule for OT. If both teams get a TD it goes to sudden death

Gl claw 

Yea that winstreak is a bit scary for Niners. It's not a matter of if but when. Hope they didn't peak too early. May fade Niners on the spread next round if they play Brady again. Maybe Giants could cover too if they make it next round.. Giants have usually played 49ers tough in the past... 

Thanks .............

I did see on YouTube a person said some very smart groups are on Seahawks with a number of angles favoring then.

That's why the line dropped according to him.

He did mention winning 5 straight has been good fading those teams.

I think when it's 7 or better it's even higher probability fading them and if the team is winning by Big margins even better 

I think also he said division opps in WC round back the dog was the higher probability.

https://killersports.com/nfl/query?output=default&sdql=team+%3D+Buccaneers+and+season%3E2019+and+start+time%3E1630+and+F&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

The problem is they also win a lot of games here.  They are the dog here so if they continue to win this would be a cover. 

Lines are the big deal 

I have another metrics that of the top 2 teams, one of those makes the SB around 70% of the years.

Top 2 are .........

1. 9ers

2. Bills

This hasn't worked past 2 years but maybe because of COVID and could be regression.

We'll see if it holds up this season. alot of times these type metrics will bounce back just like close wins I posted above did after a period of non success.

Another reason I bought off on 9ers winning NFC and SB along with 9ers passing the Eagles on the final week to be no. 1 ranked team.

Although they are under a rating of 12 I will have more on this later.

Bills I don't know, Allen to much a TO machine. Some saying Allen affected by losing off coach Dabol, Bills don't rate all that strong in high probability passing stats. 

9ers appear to be more balanced team and better overall but with a rookie QB with few games under his belt.

But the Bills do rate strong , no. 1in another indicator I'll post later. With 9ers 2cd.

POWER RATING II ............................................

more balance heavy where run game carries more weight and defense carries more weight and off don't turn ball over carry more weight.

1. 9ers 11.64 ..... not including game 1 w/Lance

2. Eagles 11.07

   9ers 10.63 .............. all games

3. Ravens 8.53 .....w/Lamar

     Ravens 6.82 ....... all games

4. Boys 6.52 ..... not including final game 

5. Bills 5.94 

    Boys 4.91 ..... all games

6. KC 4.66

7. Dolphins 3.01 ....w/Tua

 8. Bengals .59

  Dolphins (-1.27)........ w/Skylar

I didn't do all teams as fell to far behind during the season, rates teams each week then the ave per week, once I fall behind not much chance to catch up. I tried to keep up with the best teams.

Interesting facts on PR II & PR I ......................... 2009 -2021

8 TEAMS rated 12 or more IN PR II 6 made  the SB. Only 2009 Vikings and the 2019 Ravens did not. But 2009 Vikes 13.83 did lose to no. 1 team in PR I Saints 14.04

Three times no. 1 teams in each PR played each other, 2015 Panthers 15.29 NO. 1 in PR II beat no. 1 in PR I Seahawks 12.86. And the 2014 Seahawks 13.29 beat the Packers 11.21 under 12, in each case the higher rated no.1 team won.

If we throw those out then PR II is 6 of 7 teams making SB rated 12 or better.

PR I is 5 of 7 no. teams rated 12 or better making the SB.

No. 1 in both PR I & II LIKE the 9ers 4-1 Making the SB  but each team rated 12 or better in one PR or both which 9ers don't. 3 of 4 rated 12 or better in both.

Teams that didn't rate 12 or better in PR II ........................

2016 Boys 10.83 , lost opening game

2018 Texans 9.7, lost 1st game

2020 Saints 9.14 , lost 

2021 Packers 9.95 lost

You can see all these teams very weak, All weakest teams rated under 11, so maybe teams over 11.5 could be good teams to back like the 9ers this year.  I made the number 12 but that number is not etched in stone. When we look at PR I we see the same result, all weakest teams are under 11, except 2020 Packers 11.03, barely above and the 2014 Packers 11.21 was the best of the weakest rated teams BUT THEY lost to NO.1 rated Seahawks in PR II.

So just maybe the number could be around 11.5, I don't know but something worth considering since 2014 Packers led the Seahawks into I think the final minute when Wilson throws like a 40 yard TD pass  so those Packers came very close as a 11.21 rated no. 1 team, maybe 11.5 is a good solid team to make the SB.NO. 1 

No. 1 rated teams in PR II rated 12 or better have been spectacular ATS going 7-2 in opening playoff game with one of those losses being 2013 Seahawks losing by .5 pt when Saints scored on 4th down with 28 seconds left. Still remember that loss.

This maybe could be the 9ers but will pass with 9ers to hot coming in.

True ..... But Cowboys are just the better all-around team to me.

BONUS POINTS ........................................

I developed this method because of Brady always beating my meterics. He and his teams were always the master of yards per pts which is a very good meterics but not included in my PR's. I've tried to add it in but didn't really change much to make it worth doing. So I came up with a method to basically take me off fading Brady.

1. Bills 13.7

2. 9ers 13.4

3, Eagles 10.26

4. KC 9.89

5. Boys 9.58 ....... not including final game

    Boys 7.72 ....... all games

6, Bengals 6.83

7. Jags 3.06

8. Ravens 2.95

9. Dolphins .87

9. Chargers .87

11. Seahawks .03

12. Gmen (-1.08)

13. Vikings (-1.22)

14. Bucs (-2.86)

Wow has Brady sunk to the bottom of the ocean. Once the master but now a disaster. Boys 3rd in yards per pts margin while the Bucs 30th. I did hear guys saying Bucs receivers have gotten healthy and Bucs and Brady have been playing better but even if they improved, by how much ? Maybe 15th at best ? Brady has been at the top year after year in yds per pts now sadly at the bottom. 

MY LINES .............................

Bills -15.83 over Dolphins

9ers -16.37 over Seahawks

Boys -9.44 over Bucs ...... not including final game

Boys -7.58 over Bucs .... all games

Bengals -6.88 over Ravens

Jags -5.19 over Chargers

Vikings -2.86 over Giants

we have a play with a 4.5 difference to closing line  ...... plays on 9ers, Boys and Jags

we can make a strong case for a play on Bills with Skylar, another 3 pts gives us a 5.33 diff. With the season Tua had VS Skylar who would be the worst QB in QBPR every year 3 pts seems low.

BONUS POINTS ................................. 2009 -2021

5 of 11 no.1 ranked teams over 12 went to SB. Last season Bills no. 1 at 14.81 and no. 1 again.

Not as strong as PR I & II at getting no. 1 ranked team over 12 to the SB. But this method hasn't gone 3 years without getting a no. 1 team into the SB. 2019 Ravens and last year's Bills didn't make it, NOW in the 3rd year Bills should do it.  This method hangs about 50%, it gets ahead then falls back, it gets behind then wins so this should be a year the no. 1 gets to the SB since it is 1 game under 50%.

no. 1 ranked teams over 12 are 6-5 ATS in opening game of playoffs

no 1 ranked teams that made the SB are 4-1 ATS in opening playoff game. Losing only by .5 when Saints scored on 4th down with 28 seconds left. So if you think Bills make the SB don't be afraid to lay the points.

teams with a 4.5 diff in WC Round are ........................................

10-8 ATS ... not a great record for sure. But this method was once 8-2 ATS, at 80% not likely to sustain such a great record, so now it has regressed but not likely to sustain that regression either. going 2-6 ATS past 8 games.  I'm thinking this method will bounce back and get it done this year.  

The method backs the 9ers, I can't bet against the 9ers with too many indicators on them but I can't back the hottest team coming into the playoffs, although we don't have any history on the 2 seed VS 7seed as the hottest team. I would rather just pass on the game.

Bills -13 (-120) over Dolphins

Bills to win AFC +200 --- 2 units

pending plays .................

Jags +2.5 over Chargers --- 2.2 units

Giants +3 over Vikings --- 1.1 units

Boys -2.5 over Bucs --- 1.1 units

pending futures ..........................

9ers & Eagles to win NFC

9ers and Eagles to win SB

Claw…no play on niners game?

Allen being a TO machine really is concerning but I'll back the bonus pts no. 1 team.

Also another meterics which of the top 2 teams one makes the SB about 70% of the years, hasn't won last couple of years so should be due according to regression. I love playing this type of regression. 

Top 2 are 9ers and Bills, I'm very confident one of these teams makes the SB and in a good number of years both do.