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NFL PLAYOFF TIME ...............................2024

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Posted: #101

Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:

The caveat is that these rankings fall under the assumption that the Chiefs team we will see on Sunday is the same one we saw all season.

 

True ..........peace_5

 

But KC has a losing  ATS record as a favorite from divisional  round  and after since 2020.  Once they became SB champs and over-valued on the lune which happens as SC champs. And have not cover any line -7 or higher other then a WC VS 7 seed when 7 seeds just started and most got blown out. 

Last 2 SB playoff runs accordi g to covers lines KC was a dog in 5 of 6 games from divisional round and after.

Last year KC did both play well either in regular season and the were a +2.5 VS Bills, +4.5 VS Ravens and +2.5 VS 9ers.

They play not that great in 2023 regular season and the line reflected that in the playoffs.

-8 would be the 2cd largest spread KC has had from divisional  round and after. In any SB run.

That does not reflect KC's poor regular season. 

It reflects how good they played last year in the playoffs as though the can repeat that this year. 

 

You are paying a premium because of their play in "last year's" playoffs 

 
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Posted: #102

Quote Originally Posted by Boisestateand8:

@theclaw Not trying to be contrary, but dome teams or warm weather teams don't do well in cold temps. Supposed to be around 25° in KC Saturday. That's a HUGE advantage for the Chiefs. Not supposed to be quite that cold in Philly, but again, the Rams aren't used to it. With you on the Eagles, not so sure about the Texans.

Good point ...........peace_5

 
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Posted: #103

Quote Originally Posted by lmb4321:

@theclaw  One Play for me Ravens.....bol this weekend....

 

Yes I think it is Ravens or no play .............peace_5

 
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Posted: #104

Quote Originally Posted by kcblitzkrieg:

Quote Originally Posted by Boisestateand8: @theclaw Not trying to be contrary, but dome teams or warm weather teams don't do well in cold temps. Supposed to be around 25° in KC Saturday. That's a HUGE advantage for the Chiefs. Not supposed to be quite that cold in Philly, but again, the Rams aren't used to it. With you on the Eagles, not so sure about the Texans. 25 is the high for the day.  wind chill temps will be in the single digits come sun down

 

Yes that could be a factor, there is history to it but I have history on my side as well but one definitely should not discount that info...............peace_5

 
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Posted: #105

@theclaw

 

 13 point teaser chiefs +4.5 Philly +7 balty +14 got early line on Philly Detroit+4 ties lose I did few others with over Detroit game down to 42 but I do like Texans +22 n wash +23 but I’m Rolling with the favorites  and agree on Philly straight up there D and Barkley will make a difference for them this year I believe but then again what do I know bol everyone 

 
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Posted: #106

@theclaw

 That does not reflect KC's poor regular season. 

You will not survive here. You are not a wolf, and this is the land of wolves now...
 
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Posted: #107

Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy: The caveat is that these rankings fall under the assumption that the Chiefs team we will see on Sunday is the same one we saw all season.   True ..........   But KC has a losing  ATS record as a favorite from divisional  round  and after since 2020.  Once they became SB champs and over-valued on the lune which happens as SC champs. And have not cover any line -7 or higher other then a WC VS 7 seed when 7 seeds just started and most got blown out.  Last 2 SB playoff runs accordi g to covers lines KC was a dog in 5 of 6 games from divisional round and after. Last year KC did both play well either in regular season and the were a +2.5 VS Bills, +4.5 VS Ravens and +2.5 VS 9ers. They play not that great in 2023 regular season and the line reflected that in the playoffs. -8 would be the 2cd largest spread KC has had from divisional  round and after. In any SB run. That does not reflect KC's poor regular season.  It reflects how good they played last year in the playoffs as though the can repeat that this year.    You are paying a premium because of their play in "last year's" playoffs

 

I meant to say last year KC did not play that well in regular season either but the difference  was the line in playoffs reflected their play.

This year it does not. You are paying a premium because of last years playoff run.

 
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Posted: #108

Quote Originally Posted by kcblitzkrieg:

@theclaw  That does not reflect KC's poor regular season.

my post was left off.  

I said this was true as all you have to do is look at the week 16 opener between these two teams.  -4.5 then vs -8 now.  Only  other difference was KC was in the middle of a 3 games in 10 day stretch vs. now they are coming off 2 weeks of rest.  

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Posted: #109

Quote Originally Posted by Boisestateand8:

@theclaw Not trying to be contrary, but dome teams or warm weather teams don't do well in cold temps. Supposed to be around 25° in KC Saturday. That's a HUGE advantage for the Chiefs. Not supposed to be quite that cold in Philly, but again, the Rams aren't used to it. With you on the Eagles, not so sure about the Texans.

HOU is 3-1 SU and ATS as a road dog when the temperature is under 28F degrees.

 

 
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Posted: #110

Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams:

Quote Originally Posted by Boisestateand8: @theclaw Not trying to be contrary, but dome teams or warm weather teams don't do well in cold temps. Supposed to be around 25° in KC Saturday. That's a HUGE advantage for the Chiefs. Not supposed to be quite that cold in Philly, but again, the Rams aren't used to it. With you on the Eagles, not so sure about the Texans. HOU is 3-1 SU and ATS as a road dog when the temperature is under 28F degrees.

Small sample size. The loss was a year ago in Baltimore.

 
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Posted: #111

Quote Originally Posted by Boisestateand8:

Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams: Quote Originally Posted by Boisestateand8: @theclaw Not trying to be contrary, but dome teams or warm weather teams don't do well in cold temps. Supposed to be around 25° in KC Saturday. That's a HUGE advantage for the Chiefs. Not supposed to be quite that cold in Philly, but again, the Rams aren't used to it. With you on the Eagles, not so sure about the Texans. HOU is 3-1 SU and ATS as a road dog when the temperature is under 28F degrees. Small sample size. The loss was a year ago in Baltimore.

True.  I would never place any wagers based on query results of just 4 games, but it does show that dome teams are not doomed in frigid conditions.

 
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Posted: #112

@theclaw

 Like that Eagles play.....might be my favorite of the weekend......peace_5

 
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Posted: #113

Quote Originally Posted by lmb4321:

@theclaw  Like that Eagles play.....might be my favorite of the weekend......

 

peace_5

 
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Posted: #114

Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams:

Quote Originally Posted by Boisestateand8: Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams: Quote Originally Posted by Boisestateand8: @theclaw Not trying to be contrary, but dome teams or warm weather teams don't do well in cold temps. Supposed to be around 25° in KC Saturday. That's a HUGE advantage for the Chiefs. Not supposed to be quite that cold in Philly, but again, the Rams aren't used to it. With you on the Eagles, not so sure about the Texans. HOU is 3-1 SU and ATS as a road dog when the temperature is under 28F degrees. Small sample size. The loss was a year ago in Baltimore. True.  I would never place any wagers based on query results of just 4 games, but it does show that dome teams are not doomed in frigid conditions.

 

Exactly ...............peace_5

 
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Posted: #115

Quote Originally Posted by kcblitzkrieg:

Quote Originally Posted by kcblitzkrieg: @theclaw  That does not reflect KC's poor regular season. my post was left off.   I said this was true as all you have to do is look at the week 16 opener between these two teams.  -4.5 then vs -8 now.  Only  other difference was KC was in the middle of a 3 games in 10 day stretch vs. now they are coming off 2 weeks of rest.

 

peace_5

 
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Posted: #116

Quote Originally Posted by kidd22:

@theclaw    13 point teaser chiefs +4.5 Philly +7 balty +14 got early line on Philly Detroit+4 ties lose I did few others with over Detroit game down to 42 but I do like Texans +22 n wash +23 but I’m Rolling with the favorites  and agree on Philly straight up there D and Barkley will make a difference for them this year I believe but then again what do I know bol everyone

 

It's hard to Imagine you lose that.............peace_5

The only game I could possibly see is KC losing .

 
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Posted: #117

PTS PER PLAYS MARGIN ..............

2024 ......

1.Lions .168

2. Bills .162

3. Ravens .151

KC .035, 12th

 

21 years of data, 42 teams made the SB.

16 or 17 years at least 1 top 3 team made the SB of 21 years.

9 times both SB teams top 3

33 teams of 42 made SB rated .090 or better.

 

Now let's remember the surprise teams from the WC round back in 2000's. 6 made the SB, Including Giants twice, Ravens 2012, Zona 2008 with Kurt Warner amoyn6g others.

Throw out these 6 years and 6 teams and look how incredible this Stat gets.

Only 3 teams made the SB under .090.

In 15 years 9 times both SB teams in top 3.

When both teams made the SB the better team is 7-2 SU.

KC was over .090 in 3 of 4 SB's. 2021 KC was under .090 and lost to Bengals who were  .090.

Last year KC was under at .062.

Brady was under 1 time as well, 2018 season at .082.

Just because KC did it last year doesn't mean they can do it again. I say it is less likely not more likely. History does support my view.

 

You could make a case that maybe the Eagles could be top 3 after their injuried players returned. They did play on a much higher level but they did not do it over 16 or 17 games. Whether they could sustain that level over more games is not known.

But I suppose we can't really rule it out either.

The Ravens fit alot of teams including the 9ers last year who came on in the 2cd half of the year after being middle of the road a good part of the 1st half.

 

KC is likely getting knocked out at some point. 

I see so many on you tube thinking this team can't lose, mostly an over-reaction to last season when they did not play as well in regular season but came on towards the end and in playoffs similar to this season.

They believe exactly what pts per plays is telling us the opposite.

Teams don't do it twice, make SB under .090.

I'll  believe the info not the over-reaction to last year.

 
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Posted: #118

Eagles 4th. Last 3 is pretty good.

 

It's refusing to show the table I added from here (remove spaces) teamrankings.com /nfl /stat /points-per-play-margin

 
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Posted: #119

Lol, now it did

 
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Posted: #120

Quote Originally Posted by garbagetime:

Eagles 4th. Last 3 is pretty good.   It's refusing to show the table I added from here (remove spaces) teamrankings.com /nfl /stat /points-per-play-margin Rank Team 2024 Last 3 Last 1 Home Away 2023 1 Detroit 0.168 0.194 0.325 0.168 0.168 0.020 2 Buffalo 0.164 0.162 0.264 0.270 0.063 0.086 3 Baltimore 0.146 0.301 0.078 0.178 0.115 0.189 4 Philadelphia 0.119 0.274 0.219 0.112 0.127 -0.012

 

I don't count last game if team didn't play starters.

 
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Posted: #121

And I am not counting playoff games in WC round 

 
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Posted: #122

Eagles put up 300 yards with their B team in that last game. :)

 
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Posted: #123

Quote Originally Posted by garbagetime:

Eagles put up 300 yards with their B team in that last game. :)

peace_5

 
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Posted: #124

GL CLAW peaceclover

Learn, be content and stay disciplined.
 
 
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Posted: #125

Home teams -6 or less with a lean on my lines to the dog............. PT I

23-16 SU....59%

16-23-1 ATS ....41%

 

PR II .........10-6 SU & 5-11 ATS

 

this has won more recently because Mahomes has beat the method but not when he was -7 or bigger favorite.

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