NFL PLAYOFF TIME ...............................2024

@BettingPublic

 After crunching some numbers looks like Ohio state is winning but notre dame is gonna cover the +8.5. Irish plus the points it is. What’s your opinion Claw ?

@soup-can

This is Washingtons problem in a week

 there you go 

Chiefs vs Washintong $$$$ Super Bowl .. $$$$$$ ????????????

Brutal last week to lose those 2 games they way they lost.

Eagles miss the extra point and Rams score and make the extra point.  To win by 6 instead of 7.

But my fault as well, I didn't  get around to posting the play until late when line moved to 7 , I was lucky to find 6.5.

It sat at 6 for a good time and I knew it was going up, it was 6.5 at some places and 6 juiced at others so no doubt it was going up.

I just did not get around to posting the play. Those are the toughest losses to take.

And Lamar actually looked pretty poised on that final drive bringing the Ravens back to score. I don't think he has ever done that in playoffs.

Only to have Andrew's drop the 2 pt try. But a closer look. Lamar threw the ball to late and he short-armed the pass , the ball went down where Andrew's needed to adjust in the snow with a slippery field. Watch the slow mo and Andrew's does a split which to me indicates he slipped.

Granted he should of caught the pass . No doubt but Lamar did not throw the best pass.

No guarantee Ravens win though, there was still like 1:30 left so Bills could of got FG or won in OT.

Here is what was very interesting.  I was too busy to post everything  I wanted last week.

But my .....Expected Win Margin ..... which assigns pts to each team based on Stat that has highest correlation to margin of victory in playoffs.

Bill had only 2.32 pts left so if they were to win they could only win by 1 or 2 pts according to the method. And the method nailed it.

So this week the method  if the Bills win they only have .32 pts left.

Not really sure what that means. They have pts left but not 1. Maybe it suggest a tie or at best a Bills 1 pt win.

KC has plenty of pts left.

Remember  the method does not tell us who will win only how much they will win by if they win.

So first we determine who will win. I think the right play is Bills but with only.32 pts not sure how to interput that.

They could tie or lose by 1 or maybe win by 1. Either way they would cover. But if KC wins they have plenty of pts to win by double digits and still have pts left in the SB.

Eagles/Wash both teams with plenty of pts left.

If the Bills win they are out of pts for SB.

PR I ...............my lines

Eagles -9.42 over Wash

Bills -1.03 Over KC

Hey look at this Bills by 1, hhhhmmmmm

Lean on Eagles and Bills

PRII .............my lines 

Eagles by 10.04 over Wash

Bills by -6.74 over KC

Lean on both Eagles and Bills again ....

Playoff only PR I .................

Bills 13.33

Eagles 12.98

Wash 8.1

KC (-2.29)

KC was out-played in both PR I & PR II by the Texans and should of lost the game although close lose. But the margin KC won by  being over a 1 score game makes KC a fade 

Super Chiefs  Tri Champs $$$$ aauuuuu

@theclaw

 I'm seeing the Chiefs as the worst team left in the playoffs in multiple areas/rankings. I'm glad that your PR's lined up.

The best value I've seen is on the SB look ahead lines where I have all ready taken the Eagles and Commanders to cover and win vs the Chiefs. 

I've also taken the Bills to beat the Eagles.

But I did not take take the Bills to cover vs the Commanders, that line looks dead on.

Just something to ponder, the value exists right now before the games are played today.

GL 

Playoff only .........my lines

Eagles -7.88 over Wash

Bills -12.62 over KC

All 3 lines have at least a Lean on both Eagles and Bills.

I don't recall seeing this before.

These lines at this point in conference finals rarely goes 0-2 ATS.

So we had success playing this in the past . We did lose last year when one or 2 lines did go 0-2 ATS.

There is not much to figure-out  with all lines on Eagles and Bills.

We play Eagles if we win we don't play the Bills. If we lose we up our play on Bills

I see on you tube public is liking Wash and Bills.

I think there are to many things favoring the Eagles. I think they should get it done.

Eagles -6 over Wash --- 2.2 units

Yes that's true. Value in the look ahead lines.....

Thanks for the info.

The Bills scare me a bit because of being out of pts in my ..Expected Win Margin ... but there are other good reasons to like them today  VS KC

Yea Super Chiefs for sure "if" they win today and win SB. ............. will be no doubt. 

I will be very busy next couple of weeks as well so not sure when I can gather my thoughts enough to post on the SB.

But I will try to post more on the Bills before kickoff of their game today.

GL on your plays @theclaw 

Tailing.   Appreciate… I can toss 100 on bills… live in Missouri… win either way.   

I would like to add… the chiefs do not care how they grade out… ha…. They are 2 games away from history…. With the right people to do it.    Hope they win.   But I’m putting a buck on Buffalo.  

Thanks for posting....Good luck.

@theclaw

 Good luck with Phil bro. 

Good luck.  Even though I hate laying that many points, I did make a small wager on PHL.  WAS's DEF is just so weak, but they can still grab a back door cover.

@theclaw

 Anything on the Bills game?

Yes that is true ..........   with Mahomes and KC one never knows. But playing at this level KC is playing is not very common for teams to advance to the SB.

Even for players Like Mahomes and Brady

Thank you .......

Thanks for eagles play - no play on chiefs / bills?